Opinion poll in Wales
Lyn David Thomas
LABOUR’S vote in Wales is holding up surprisingly well and Plaid Cymru
has attained its highest level of support since 1999, according to the
findings of a new opinion poll.
Voters across Wales were asked how they would vote in Westminster and
National Assembly elections.
The poll was commissioned by Plaid from Cardiff-based Beaufort
Research, which regularly conducts Omnibus surveys in which a
representative sample of the Welsh population is asked questions.
In an Assembly election, which will next take place in May 2011, Labour
would get 35% of the votes (it got 32% in the 2007 election), Plaid
Cymru 27% (22%), Conservatives 16% (22%), Liberal Democrats 12% (15%),
Green 4% (-), UKIP 1% (8%) and Others 5% (-).
In a general election, which must take place before June 2010, Labour
would get 41% of the vote (43% in the 2005 election), Conservatives 22%
(21%), Plaid Cymru 17% (13%), Liberal Democrats 13% (18%), Green 2%
(-), UKIP 1% (5%) and Others 4% (-).
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2009/04/02/labour-and-plaid-both-doing-well-latest-polls-indicating-91466-23292389/
for full article
--
\/ Lyn David Thomas
JNugent
And...?
Lyn David Thomas
JNugent <J...@noparticularplacetogo.com> wrote:
> > http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2009/04/02/labour-and-plaid-both-doing-well-latest-polls-indicating-91466-23292389/
> > for full article
>
> And...?
Opinion polls are a rare animal in Wales, posted here for some
discussion and information. If you don't want to discuss fine.
John M Ward
Yes, I saw this on UK Polling Report, who says that such things are
"fantastically rare". I suppose it is difficult for non-Welsh folk here
to get to grips with it, to be fair to all; but it was worth noting here,
though some comments or other thoughts of your own would have been
helpful, I think.
--
John M Ward - see http://www.horsted.john-ward.org.uk
--> In favour of returning all local decisions to local people!
Paul Hyett
wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
>
>In an Assembly election, which will next take place in May 2011, Labour
>would get 35% of the votes (it got 32% in the 2007 election), Plaid
>Cymru 27% (22%), Conservatives 16% (22%), Liberal Democrats 12% (15%),
>Green 4% (-), UKIP 1% (8%) and Others 5% (-).
>
>In a general election, which must take place before June 2010, Labour
>would get 41% of the vote (43% in the 2005 election), Conservatives 22%
>(21%), Plaid Cymru 17% (13%), Liberal Democrats 13% (18%), Green 2%
>(-), UKIP 1% (5%) and Others 4% (-).
>
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham
Lyn David Thomas
John M Ward <jo...@acornusers.org> wrote:
> In article <20090403083...@vector.linux.net>,
> Lyn David Thomas <l...@cibwr.plus.com> wrote:
> > On Fri, 03 Apr 2009 01:54:58 +0100
> > JNugent <J...@noparticularplacetogo.com> wrote:
>
> > > > http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2009/04/02/labour-and-plaid-both-doing-well-latest-polls-indicating-91466-23292389/
> > > > for full article
> > >
> > > And...?
>
> > Opinion polls are a rare animal in Wales, posted here for some
> > discussion and information. If you don't want to discuss fine.
>
> Yes, I saw this on UK Polling Report, who says that such things are
> "fantastically rare". I suppose it is difficult for non-Welsh folk
> here to get to grips with it, to be fair to all; but it was worth
> noting here, though some comments or other thoughts of your own would
> have been helpful, I think.
>
Well ok, huge caveat, Welsh opinion polling is fairly rare and they
don't have a good record of getting things right. However they can, if
conducted by the same organisation, with the same methodology give you
trends. While this poll was commissioned by Plaid it was carried out
by an independent organisation that isn't biased politically. What is
interesting, if its is correct that the coalition is holding up fairly
well in the public eyes and that the principle losers are the Lib Dems
and in Assembly terms the Conservatives. If you read the report in
full you can see that the new Lib Dem leader in Wales reserves most of
her comments for Ceredigion, suggesting that they fear losing that seat
at Westminster. Myself I think the trends suggesting a better
performance by Plaid has been helped by the prominence that Plaid
Ministers have. That during the First Minister's illness the Plaid
Deputy First Minister performed well and generally Plaid seems to be
performing well in Government. That is not to say that there aren't
some bumpy patches but overall the impression is favourable.
Conservative support seems to be collapsing, perhaps this is because
its now taking a more cautious approach on devolution and isn't so pro
it (the Welsh leadership supporting full law making powers to the
National Assembly - which is in advance of the London leadership and a
large section of its membership in Wales).
In the end polls are polls and a lot can happen between now and an
election, they all have to be taken in context and unless we get a
regular series of polls then we have some difficulty in judging just
how representative they are.
But I would say that three main parties in Wales can take some heart
from aspects of this poll and only one, the Lib Dems are left with no
crumbs.
JohnLoony
> And...?
"And" appears in the Authorised version of the Bible 46,227 times.
Why do you ask?
JNugent
What I meant was: "What is your point?".
Lyn David Thomas
See the reply I gave earlier if you want my opinion. The point is that
this news group is designed to discuss election results and electoral
systems, so an opinion poll is relevant. Its there so people can gain
information and if they want to discuss what its implications are then
that is a bonus. The implication as far as I can see, is that the
headline figures that were previously touted of the Conservatives
getting their best ever result in Wales is unlikely, that the Lib Dems
will not do as well as they hoped, the Labour Party not as badly as
they feared and Plaid Cymru will gain (probably) a seat or two (or
maybe more).
Tim Roll-Pickering
> The implication as far as I can see, is that the
> headline figures that were previously touted of the Conservatives
> getting their best ever result in Wales is unlikely, that the Lib Dems
> will not do as well as they hoped, the Labour Party not as badly as
> they feared and Plaid Cymru will gain (probably) a seat or two (or
> maybe more).
What's the general accuracy rate like for Welsh-specific polls? ISTR some in
the past that were subsets of UK polls that ran into sample size issues.
Also has anyone done a poll for the Euros yet?
JNugent
> JNugent <J...@noparticularplacetogo.com> wrote:
>> Lyn David Thomas wrote:
>>> On Fri, 03 Apr 2009 01:54:58 +0100
>>> JNugent <J...@noparticularplacetogo.com> wrote:
>>>>> http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2009/04/02/labour-and-plaid-both-doing-well-latest-polls-indicating-91466-23292389/
>>>>> for full article
>>>> And...?
>>> Opinion polls are a rare animal in Wales, posted here for some
>>> discussion and information. If you don't want to discuss fine.
>> What I meant was: "What is your point?".
> See the reply I gave earlier if you want my opinion. The point is that
> this news group is designed to discuss election results and electoral
> systems, so an opinion poll is relevant.
That may well be, but if you wish to initiate a discussion on the topic, it
is best if you establish a position (perhaps using an article as background
to that) and invite others to agree or disagree with you.
> Its there so people can gain
> information and if they want to discuss what its implications are then
> that is a bonus. The implication as far as I can see, is that the
> headline figures that were previously touted of the Conservatives
> getting their best ever result in Wales is unlikely, that the Lib Dems
> will not do as well as they hoped, the Labour Party not as badly as
> they feared and Plaid Cymru will gain (probably) a seat or two (or
> maybe more).
Meanwhile, in other news, the Labour Party held on to several seats in
Barnsley in 1983. And much good it did them in the ensuing three Parliaments.
Every major party has strongholds (the LibDems might have one or two as
well). That Wales is a labour stronghold is not news - is it?
Lyn David Thomas
Not good, there aren't enough of them for the pollsters to adjust
their methodology, and Welsh Electoral Politics is notoriously complex,
with different sorts of contests in different places.
However it is encouraging that there gradually seem to be more of
them. We need regular polling to make sense of the trends, to know
what the trends are.
Some polls have been, as you suggest, subsets of UK polls, but that is
now much rarer and they were not much use.
> Also has anyone done a poll for the Euros yet?
None that I have seen
Lyn David Thomas
JNugent <J...@noparticularplacetogo.com> wrote:
> Every major party has strongholds (the LibDems might have one or two
> as well). That Wales is a labour stronghold is not news - is it?
Well true, however much less of a stronghold than they once had, its
quite possible that they will get under 50% of the seats in the next
general election.
John M Ward
Ooh! Interesting times ahead...
As it happens, right-wing blogger extraordinaire Iain Dale spent this last
weekend in Wales, and he has written a few posts on what he found -- with
comments from Welsh readers that are just as important to read as the blog
posts themselves, especially those disagreeing with Iain or taking him to
task on one or more matters.
JNugent
> JNugent <J...@noparticularplacetogo.com> wrote:
>> Every major party has strongholds (the LibDems might have one or two
>> as well). That Wales is a labour stronghold is not news - is it?
> Well true, however much less of a stronghold than they once had, its
> quite possible that they will get under 50% of the seats in the next
> general election.
See - you were right (for the Euros at least).
JNugent
> Lyn David Thomas <l...@cibwr.plus.com> wrote:
>> JNugent <J...@noparticularplacetogo.com> wrote:
>>> Every major party has strongholds (the LibDems might have one or two
>>> as well). That Wales is a labour stronghold is not news - is it?
>> Well true, however much less of a stronghold than they once had, its
>> quite possible that they will get under 50% of the seats in the next
>> general election.
> Ooh! Interesting times ahead...
> As it happens, right-wing blogger extraordinaire Iain Dale spent this last
> weekend in Wales, and he has written a few posts on what he found -- with
> comments from Welsh readers that are just as important to read as the blog
> posts themselves, especially those disagreeing with Iain or taking him to
> task on one or more matters.
Interesting stuff (in the out-turn).
Do you have a URL, please?
John M Ward
Crumbs! After all this time I'm not sure. There were several articles at
the time (which is why I wrote it the way I did) so no single URL.
I'd hoped that those interested would have checked-in at the Dale 'blog
and kept an eye on it -- but fully accept that this is the way I'd have
responded to a post such as mine. I've been checking via Google Blogs,
but haven't found what I was posting about, so far.
I shall continue to try (I'm not fully active online at the moment, as I
am in the process of moving house, and there is considerable interest in
"Chateau John" so I have lots of viewings going on!)
Lyn David Thomas
I would be very cautious in transferring the Euro vote over to a UK
general election. There were modest rises for both the Tories and
Plaid, the Lib Dems stagnated and UKIP increased its vote. The real
story was the decline in the Labour vote, which I suspect means that
the Labour vote abstained more than switched to the other two main
parties, Plaid and the Tories. Some of their vote went to minor
parties to be sure, but much of the collapse can be attributed to
abstention.
Of course long term Labour voters could carry over the abstention to a
UK general election, but I doubt it. Likewise I dont' expect UKIP to
keep its vote and I'd be wary of transferring the bulk of it to the
Tories.
Interestingly Plaid increased its vote and didn't suffer from being in
coalition with Labour.
My own expectations for the next election is a gain for the tories of
between 6 and 9 seats, with the Lib Dems losing 2 - 3 seats, Plaid
gaining between 2 and 3 seats. I expect one independent hold and
Labour to hold a handful of seats on a tiny majority. However a year
is a long time in politics.
Paul Hyett
wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
>
>My own expectations for the next election is a gain for the tories of
>between 6 and 9 seats, with the Lib Dems losing 2 - 3 seats, Plaid
>gaining between 2 and 3 seats. I expect one independent hold and
>Labour to hold a handful of seats on a tiny majority. However a year
>is a long time in politics.
You are wildly over-optimistic for Labour - IMO there will be a Tory
landslide (unfortunately).
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham
Nick Russell
the Welsh Assembly or for Britain as a whole?
Nick Russell
HErefordshire
"Paul Hyett" <p...@invalid.invalid> wrote in message
news:$UHmvsUS...@blueyonder.co.uk...
Paul Hyett
in uk.politics.electoral :
>
>"Paul Hyett" <p...@invalid.invalid> wrote in message
>news:$UHmvsUS...@blueyonder.co.uk...
>> On Sun, 14 Jun 2009 at 09:17:01, Lyn David Thomas <l...@cibwr.plus.com>
>> wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
>>>
>>>My own expectations for the next election is a gain for the tories of
>>>between 6 and 9 seats, with the Lib Dems losing 2 - 3 seats, Plaid
>>>gaining between 2 and 3 seats. I expect one independent hold and
>>>Labour to hold a handful of seats on a tiny majority. However a year
>>>is a long time in politics.
>>
>> You are wildly over-optimistic for Labour - IMO there will be a Tory
>> landslide (unfortunately).
>I'm not sure whether Lyn David Thomas is projecting figures for Wales, for
>the Welsh Assembly or for Britain as a whole?
>
Ah - that would make more sense. The PC part should have tipped me off.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham
Lyn David Thomas
I think it unlikely that the Tories will gain a majority of the Welsh
seats, there is a chance they may have more than Labour but I doubt
it. Its very tempting to read across the results to Westminster but as
the collapse in the Labour vote was largely as a result of abstention
then I think a good chunk of that will still turn out.
Lyn David Thomas
"Nick Russell" <nic...@gmail.com> wrote:
> I'm not sure whether Lyn David Thomas is projecting figures for
> Wales, for the Welsh Assembly or for Britain as a whole?
>
For the UK parliament, and my point is that while the European
elections will give some guide it shouldn't be read directly across for
Westminster. The Tories vote did not increase dramatically, neither
did Plaid's, what happened was that Labour voters stayed at home. In a
UK general election a greater proportion of those will turn out. I
expect the Tories to do well - maybe getting 13 seats in all but not
better than that.
Lyn David Thomas
No this is for Westminster. I expect Plaid to gain seats off Labour
and the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems to lose seats to the Tories and Labour
to lose seats to the Tories. I don't see the Tories holding over half
the Welsh seats as some project. Remember their vote increased by only
around 2%.
Paul Hyett
wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
>On Mon, 15 Jun 2009 07:00:13 GMT
>Paul Hyett <p...@invalid.invalid> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> You are wildly over-optimistic for Labour - IMO there will be a
>> >> Tory landslide (unfortunately).
>>
>> >I'm not sure whether Lyn David Thomas is projecting figures for
>> >Wales, for the Welsh Assembly or for Britain as a whole?
>> >
>> Ah - that would make more sense. The PC part should have tipped me
>> off.
>
>No this is for Westminster.
Ah, OK - then my original comment stands.
> I expect Plaid to gain seats off Labour
>and the Lib Dems.
Presumably Ceredigion & Ynys Mon (and a very outside chance of
Llanelli)?
> The Lib Dems to lose seats to the Tories
I don't expect this, at least not in Wales.
> and Labour
>to lose seats to the Tories.
In droves!
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham
Paul Hyett
wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
>>
>> You are wildly over-optimistic for Labour - IMO there will be a Tory
>> landslide (unfortunately).
>
>I think it unlikely that the Tories will gain a majority of the Welsh
>seats, there is a chance they may have more than Labour but I doubt
>it. Its very tempting to read across the results to Westminster but as
>the collapse in the Labour vote was largely as a result of abstention
>then I think a good chunk of that will still turn out.
On the basis of '*anything* to keep the Tories out'?
I don't see that working any better for them, than it did for the Tories
in 1997.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham
Paul Hyett
wrote in uk.politics.electoral :
>On Sun, 14 Jun 2009 20:23:34 +0100
You must be the only person who's not a Labour MP who doesn't think
there'll be a Tory landslide. :p
Perhaps you could explain why you don't think Labour will lose many
seats? It seems a bizarre prediction given the state of the economy &
the expenses scandal.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham
Henry Potts
I presume Lyn is talking about the Welsh seats at Westminster, yes?
--
Henry
Lyn David Thomas
I think that in Wales the Labour Party will lose a shed load of seats.
I don't think that is the same as a Tory landslide. I concede that
Labour could cease to be the largest single party in Wales. But the
increase in the Tory vote was marginal, not huge. The real story is
the collapse in the Labour vote, to abstention and to a variety of
minor parties. I think the Labour Party will lose in the order of 10
seats in Wales.
How do you read the election? Given the small increase in the Tory
vote what makes you think it will be a tory lanslide in Wales, by which
I take it you mean that the Tories will have over 20 seats in Wales.
Lyn David Thomas
Henry Potts <use...@bondegezou.demon.co.uk> wrote:
> > Perhaps you could explain why you don't think Labour will lose many
> > seats? It seems a bizarre prediction given the state of the economy
> > & the expenses scandal.
>
> I presume Lyn is talking about the Welsh seats at Westminster, yes?
Indeed.