Forthcoming by-election: Mid Ulster

[Liam Pennington]

Caused by - (Eventual) resignation of Martin McGuinness

Results since 1997: http://i.imgur.com/ch3mg.png

Prospective candidates:

Er, none.

[Tim Roll-Pickering]

Liam Pennington wrote:

> Prospective candidates:

> Er, none.

There's been some talk of a Unionist unity candidate. (Well Mid Ulster has
historically been favourable to Unity but not that sort.) The UUP seems to
be in typical double navigator no wheels mode, publically indicating first
it will go in one direction then about turning and seeming to head off in
the other and achieve nothing but alienating yet another section of the
electorate, so expect more umming and ahing on this up until nominations
close.

A single Unionist candidate would achieve nothing positive and a lot of
negatives.

--
My blog: http://adf.ly/4hi4c

[Paul Hyett]

On Wed, 3 Oct 2012 at 00:59:09, Tim Roll-Pickering
<T.C.Roll-...@qmul.ac.uk> wrote in uk.politics.electoral :

I wonder how many contests in NI would had a different result, if either
the Unionists, or the Nationalists had put up a single candidate, rather
than splintering their vote amongst 2 or more?
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

[David North]

"Paul Hyett" <p...@invalid.invalid> wrote in message
news:VxrwRCdl...@blueyonder.co.uk...

In 2010:

A single Unionist candidate would have beaten the Alliance in Belfast East.

A Nationalist might well have beaten Nigel Dodds in Belfast North.

In Belfast South, the combined DUP/UUP vote was 16 short of the SDLP. Sinn
Fein did stand down there.

In Londonderry East, a Nationalist might just have edged out the DUP
(theoretical margin 44).

A Nationalist might also have beaten the DUP in Upper Bann.

The other 13 seats would still have had the same result.
--
David North

[Tim Roll-Pickering]

Paul Hyett wrote:

> I wonder how many contests in NI would had a different result, if either
> the Unionists, or the Nationalists had put up a single candidate, rather
> than splintering their vote amongst 2 or more?

In recent times probably less than one would think. The Unionists tried a
unity candidate in Femanagh & South Tyrone in 2010 but found that a) they
couldn't get every single last vote behind the one candidate (rather
critical when he lost by just four votes); b) it sent the Sinn Fein vote
significantly up. There's often talk whipped up about how one side could tak
the seat if the other's vote isn't strongly concentrated on the leading
candidate but sometimes these fears are little more than exagerration by the
incumbent party. There's also the problem of just who the unity candidate
would be, with some personalities being rather divisive.

The following seats in 2010 would have had a different result *if* Unionists
or Nationalists had got all their votes behind a single candidate, but the
same might have happened on the other side to cancel out of the effect:

* Belfast North - This is becoming the most 50/50 seat with Unionists &
Nationalists getting about the same amount combined with Unionists only just
ahead. At the moment the DUP is in a stronger position vis a vis the UUP
than Sinn Fein vis a vis the SDLP.

* Belfast East - Alliance won the seat with 12,839 votes, the DUP, UUP/UCUNF
& TUV between them got 20,467 (and the Nationalists parties got just 1182
between them).

* East Londonderry - The combined Sinn Fein/SDLP total was 34 votes ahead of
the DUP; however there were 8,700 further votes for UCUNF/UUP & TUV.

* Upper Bann - An interesting one as the top two were DUP and UCUNF/UUP;
however the combined Sinn Fein/SDLP total was about 1,500 votes ahead of the
DUP.

And in case anyone's wondering about Belfast South, the SDLP were 16 votes
ahead of the combined DUP & UUP/UCUNF total with no Sinn Fein candidate (who
withdrew to help retain Fermanagh & South Tyrone). The last Assembly & local
elections showed the Unionist parties ahead of the Nationalists but with a
sizeable chunk for the Alliance and smaller parties that seems to be
supporting the SDLP at Westminster. This is a seat where a sizeable chunk of
the votes for Unionist parties don't vote Unionist all the way - in recent
Assembly elections the transfers just haven't come through - and some may
have drifted away altogether.

(I *think* that Belfast South in 2005 was the only occasion in many decades
when a Nationalist won a seat despite being outpolled by Unionists
combined.)

The prospect of a Unionist unity candidate winning in Mid Ulster is rather
fanciful.

[David North]

"Tim Roll-Pickering" <T.C.Roll-...@qmul.ac.uk> wrote in message
news:ad2vlu...@mid.individual.net...

> Paul Hyett wrote:
>
>> I wonder how many contests in NI would had a different result, if either
>> the Unionists, or the Nationalists had put up a single candidate, rather
>> than splintering their vote amongst 2 or more?
>
> In recent times probably less than one would think. The Unionists tried a
> unity candidate in Femanagh & South Tyrone in 2010 but found that a) they
> couldn't get every single last vote behind the one candidate (rather
> critical when he lost by just four votes); b) it sent the Sinn Fein vote
> significantly up.

Yes, as I would have said yesterday if I hadn't run out of lunch break,
tactical voting alone would probably have prevented some of the possible
changes.

> There's often talk whipped up about how one side could tak the seat if the
> other's vote isn't strongly concentrated on the leading candidate but
> sometimes these fears are little more than exagerration by the incumbent
> party. There's also the problem of just who the unity candidate would be,
> with some personalities being rather divisive.
>
> The following seats in 2010 would have had a different result *if*
> Unionists or Nationalists had got all their votes behind a single
> candidate, but the same might have happened on the other side to cancel
> out of the effect:
>
> * Belfast North - This is becoming the most 50/50 seat with Unionists &
> Nationalists getting about the same amount combined with Unionists only
> just ahead. At the moment the DUP is in a stronger position vis a vis the
> UUP than Sinn Fein vis a vis the SDLP.
>
> * Belfast East - Alliance won the seat with 12,839 votes, the DUP,
> UUP/UCUNF & TUV between them got 20,467 (and the Nationalists parties got
> just 1182 between them).
>
> * East Londonderry - The combined Sinn Fein/SDLP total was 34 votes ahead
> of the DUP; however there were 8,700 further votes for UCUNF/UUP & TUV.
>
> * Upper Bann - An interesting one as the top two were DUP and UCUNF/UUP;
> however the combined Sinn Fein/SDLP total was about 1,500 votes ahead of
> the DUP.
>
> And in case anyone's wondering about Belfast South, the SDLP were 16 votes
> ahead of the combined DUP & UUP/UCUNF total with no Sinn Fein candidate
> (who withdrew to help retain Fermanagh & South Tyrone).

Surely the reason was at least partly to avoid a Unionist win in Belfast
South. As it happened, both Unionist parties lost votes, apparently to the
Alliance and the Greens, so the SDLP would probably have won anyway.

> The last Assembly & local elections showed the Unionist parties ahead of
> the Nationalists but with a sizeable chunk for the Alliance and smaller
> parties that seems to be supporting the SDLP at Westminster. This is a
> seat where a sizeable chunk of the votes for Unionist parties don't vote
> Unionist all the way - in recent Assembly elections the transfers just
> haven't come through - and some may have drifted away altogether.
>
> (I *think* that Belfast South in 2005 was the only occasion in many
> decades when a Nationalist won a seat despite being outpolled by Unionists
> combined.)
>
> The prospect of a Unionist unity candidate winning in Mid Ulster is rather
> fanciful.

Even if McGuinness's personal vote accounted for half the difference between
SF and the SDLP, it still wouldn't quite work on 2010 figures.
--
David North

[Tim Roll-Pickering]

David North wrote:

>> And in case anyone's wondering about Belfast South, the SDLP were 16
>> votes ahead of the combined DUP & UUP/UCUNF total with no Sinn Fein
>> candidate (who withdrew to help retain Fermanagh & South Tyrone).

> Surely the reason was at least partly to avoid a Unionist win in Belfast
> South.

Sinn Fein doesn't seem to care so much about which party wins a seat when it
isn't Sinn Fein, and if anything would probably prefer the SDLP to be eroded
away (the 2005 gain did a lot to postpone talk of a Stooper collapse).
Originally they were going to stand a candidate but pulled out late in the
day after calls for a pact over Belfast South and Fermanagh & South Tyrone
fell through. This way they sent a message to SDLP voters in FST that it was
okay to vote Sinn Fein and still get something for their preferred party and
also tarred the SDLP as spoilers in the west. Subsequently Sinn Fein took
the sole remaining SDLP seat in FST.

>> The prospect of a Unionist unity candidate winning in Mid Ulster is
>> rather fanciful.

> Even if McGuinness's personal vote accounted for half the difference
> between SF and the SDLP, it still wouldn't quite work on 2010 figures.

I'm not sure how much of a personal McGuinness vote that won't back other
Sinn Fein candidates there is. In Belfast West Gerry Adams managed to get
his vote to stay with his party in either transfers or Adams-free elections
and the totals for Mid Ulster suggest similar resiliance. And with McGuiness
still an Assembly member and deputy First Minister there isn't even an issue
about Mid Ulster Sinn Fein voters no longer having a big figure representing
them.

[Liam Pennington]

I'm wondering if Martin McGuinness has "done a Gerry Adams" and just assumed he's resigned by sending in a letter, or making a public announcement, or whatever he's done. It's been six months since he said he was resigning, and there's been nothing since.

[Tim Roll-Pickering]

Liam Pennington wrote:

> I'm wondering if Martin McGuinness has "done a Gerry Adams" and just
> assumed he's resigned by sending in a letter, or making a public
> announcement,
> or whatever he's done. It's been six months since he said he was
> resigning,
> and there's been nothing since.

Even if a badly worded letter was received there's precedent to appoint him
regardless. I presume Sinn Fein is aware of the difference between an
announcement and an action - haven't some of their MLAs resigned over the
years?

[use...@bondegezou.demon.co.uk]

Agreed. I think McGuiness has simply decided not to resign (yet, at least).
--
Henry

[David North]

<use...@bondegezou.demon.co.uk> wrote in message
news:ae63fce1-95c6-444a...@googlegroups.com...

Either that or he's been "concentrating on his job at Stormont" so much that
he's forgotten he's got another one.

I notice that the BBC's headline when he made the announcement was
"McGuinness quits Westminster seat".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-18396327

How can someone quit a seat that they have never sat on?
--
David North

[Liam Pennington]

.....and we still wait for a by-election date

Francie Molloy MLA has been nominated as the Sinn Féin candidate for the by-election, whenever that may be.

[Liam Pennington]

Polling day is this Thursday

Candidates:

Eric BULLICK [Alliance]
Nigel LUTTON [Independent]
Patsy McGLONE [SDLP]
Francie MOLLOY [Sinn Féin]

[Tim Roll-Pickering]

Liam Pennington wrote:

> Candidates:

> Eric BULLICK [Alliance]
> Nigel LUTTON [Independent]
> Patsy McGLONE [SDLP]

> Francie MOLLOY [Sinn F�in]

Lutton is a Unionist Unity candidate, jointly fielded by the DUP and UUP
(and possibly also the TUV). This brought tensions in the UUP to cracking
point with two MLAs & former leadership contenders, Basil McCrea and John
McAllister, resigning from the party with the intention of setting a new
liberal Unionist party. However they aren't fielding a candidate here.

This should be a Sinn Fein hold barring a political earthquake and the main
interest is probably in how well Lutton can do in uniting the Unionist vote
from past elections - a unity candidate in Fermanagh & South Tyrone in the
general election got the lowest Unionist share on modern boundaries and
failed to take the seat by just four votes - and whether the Alliance can
get an uptick in one of their weakest seats and gain anything off the UUP
share given the latter's troubles.

[David North]

"Tim Roll-Pickering" <T.C.Roll-...@qmul.ac.uk> wrote in message

news:apm7ac...@mid.individual.net...

The Alliance failed to get 1% of the vote at their last two attempts in Mid
Ulster (2010 and 1997). It would be hard for them to do worse.

When the UUP stood in 2005, having not done so in at least the previous
three GEs, the total Unionist share of the vote went up by 3%.
--
David North

[Tim Roll-Pickering]

David North wrote:

>> Lutton is a Unionist Unity candidate, jointly fielded by the DUP and UUP
>> (and possibly also the TUV). This brought tensions in the UUP to cracking
>> point with two MLAs & former leadership contenders, Basil McCrea and John
>> McAllister, resigning from the party with the intention of setting a new
>> liberal Unionist party. However they aren't fielding a candidate here.

>> This should be a Sinn Fein hold barring a political earthquake and the
>> main interest is probably in how well Lutton can do in uniting the
>> Unionist vote from past elections - a unity candidate in Fermanagh &
>> South Tyrone in the general election got the lowest Unionist share on
>> modern boundaries and failed to take the seat by just four votes - and
>> whether the Alliance can get an uptick in one of their weakest seats and
>> gain anything off the UUP share given the latter's troubles.

> The Alliance failed to get 1% of the vote at their last two attempts in
> Mid Ulster (2010 and 1997). It would be hard for them to do worse.

The Alliance track record in the constituency on current boundaries is as
follows:

Forum 1996: 549 1%
General Election 1997: 460 1%
Assembly 1998: 497 1.00%
GE 2001: No candidate
A 2003: 166 0.4%
GE 2005: No candidate
A 2007: 221 0.5%
GE 2010: 397 1.0%
A 2011: 398 0.9%
(Local goverment 2011: 92 0.2% but that was a single candidate in Cookstown)

They don't appear to have stood in any relevant local elections before 2011.

So they have in fact done worse here, but have the benefit of no competition
from smaller parties or independents.

On the previous boundaries they were in the 2-3% range, perhaps helped a
little by the UUP not standing a candidate between 1983 and 2005. However I
think the majority of their vote went into West Tyrone.

[Liam Pennington]

We have a result...

Francis Joseph Molloy (SF) 17,462
David Thomas Nigel Lutton (Ind) 12,781
Patrick Joseph McGlone (SDLP) 6,478
Eric Herbert Anton Bullick (APNI) 487

Sinn Féin Hold

[Paul Hyett]

On Thu, 7 Mar 2013 at 21:26:22, Liam Pennington
<missivesf...@gmail.com> wrote in uk.politics.electoral :

What happened to the united unionist candidate?
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

[Guy Barry]

On Mar 8, 7:16 am, Paul Hyett <p...@invalid.invalid> wrote:
> On Thu, 7 Mar 2013 at 21:26:22, Liam Pennington

> <missivesfromdokt...@gmail.com> wrote in uk.politics.electoral :

>
> >We have a result...
>
> >Francis Joseph Molloy (SF) 17,462
> >David Thomas Nigel Lutton (Ind) 12,781
> >Patrick Joseph McGlone (SDLP) 6,478
> >Eric Herbert Anton Bullick     (APNI) 487
>
> >Sinn Féin Hold
>
> What happened to the united unionist candidate?

That was Lutton (as already mentioned).

--
Guy Barry

[Paul Hyett]

On Fri, 8 Mar 2013 at 00:09:54, Guy Barry <guy....@blueyonder.co.uk>
wrote in uk.politics.electoral :

Didn't realise that, as he was listed an 'Ind'.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

[David North]

"Paul Hyett" <p...@invalid.invalid> wrote in message

news:8v2aGJYB$hOR...@blueyonder.co.uk...

He seems to have been reasonably successful, in that his share of the vote
(34.35%) was about 1.6% higher than the combined DUP/UUP/TUV share in 2010.
The SDLP and the Alliance managed to increase their actual vote, by 652 and
90 respectively, despite a reduced turnout of 55.70% compared to 63.69% at
the GE.
--
David North