On Sat, 02 Sep 2017 08:35:54 +0100, Indy Jess John
<
jimw...@OMITblueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
>On 02/09/2017 00:10, Bob Eager wrote:
>
>> Why should they bother? They can do without us, and (according to the
>> Lievers) we can do without them.
>
>The EU needs our money.
And we need to trade connections.
>Britain is one of the nett contributors to the
>EU budget,
It wasn't at the beginning.
> which is why the discussions so far have been all about how
>much we will pay for a divorce settlement.
Understandably. When you leave anywhere permanently, the first thing
you settle is your bill.
>>
<snip>
>>
>I am not convinced that there is a bill to be paid.
Of course there is. Do you think the EU and our commitment to it was
just a day by day thing? Do you not think that there were long term
projects and plans that we have committed to that still require our
commitment? Buy anything on credit, commit to paying towards something
long term (like a mortgage) then stop paying and see what happens.
>The EU's claim
>includes all the EU Membership payments, which we will pay until the day
>we leave,
Check.
> and as Britain part owns all the EU office estate
It does? (genuine question).
> we are due
>back our investment in that, or else an ongoing rental payment for our
>proportion of the buildings.
See above.
>The EU is pretending not to notice
>financial commitments in *both* directions.
Except, as a net contributor for a few years now, the chances are we
are owed (next_to_nothing, if) anything, back.
>
>The Leavers are happy with a hard Brexit, on the whole.
They are? Do you have any stats to back that up? I was told here that
the leave camp was just as diversely ranging and the remain one (no
wonder consider what little few were available then or now) from
people who were unsure but went along with the propaganda to those on
a crusade on one slim topic or another. It's highly likely that far
less than the majority of those who voted leave wanted us to do so
like lemmings leaping off a cliff ... they *assumed* there was a plan.
> What
>complicates matters is that the majority of MPs, regardless of party
>allegiances, are Remainers,
So I wonder why that is, given they probably see / understand more of
the bigger picture than we do?
> and this makes achieving a hard Brexit
>pretty tricky.
And for good reason. Whilst a hard Brexit may be what a minority of
those who voted leave want, it's far from clear just how many want it
at_all_costs, preferring it to be something that is worked out to be
at worst, the best compromise for (all of) us.
>Unfortunately as Cameron was a staunch Remainer and
>didn't imagine that the public could possibly want to change the status
>quo,
And we still don't know that to be the case, just because of the
outcome of a 'poll' at the time (amidst loads of lies, BS and
propaganda).
> he didn't consider it necessary to write into the Referendum
>legislation that the result would be compulsory.
No, because such polls, in the UK generally / legally aren't:
"Although Acts of Parliament may permit referendums to take place, the
doctrine of parliamentary sovereignty means any Act of Parliament
giving effect to a referendum result could be reversed by a subsequent
Act of Parliament. As a result, referendums in the United Kingdom
cannot be constitutionally binding, although they will usually have a
persuasive political effect."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_by_country#United_Kingdom
The law applies no matter what anyone 'promised' at the polling time.
>
>This has given the Remainers hope that they can sabotage any agreement
>to leave.
Which considering the poll was non-binding and in the light of no
clear evidence we won't be going out of the frying pan, into the par,
makes perfect sense (assuming we are still living in a democracy).
>Which is why I believe that there should be no negotiation
>unless it is on a win-win basis.
We have little open to us in the way of true 'negotiation' in any
case, now it's all the remaining members onto us.
>That way the default is that we go
>without an agreement, taking our cheque book with us.
Except I'm not sure we would be allowed to. There could be a
compromise though ...
I worked for a company who leased a building for 20 years. After 15
years they wanted to move but the landlord was unwilling to adjust the
terms or duration of the lease (commercial buildings were laying empty
for some time around then). So, the company left one million pounds on
the landlords doorman and walked off. The sum was calculated to be
less than the remaining leas obligation but enough to cover the lease
of the building until the landlord was likely to be able to re let it.
It also reduced the chances of being chased legally as whist the
company had failed their side of the contract, 'some moneys' had been
put forward to mitigate that.
>
>It is the potential loss of any form of divorce settlement that will
>make the EU crack.
You believe. Until it happens you have no proof it will. It may also
make it more resilient.
>That and the pressure from the EU suppliers who
>export to Britain who don't want future Customs arrangements interfering
>with their free trade prices.
Assuming they don't want to queer the pitch for trading within the EU
themselves.
>Britain doesn't really want that either,
>but as we import far more than we export to the EU, Customs duties will
>be financially beneficial to us as a nation though damaging to the
>exporting companies who will have to have some compensation from the
>financial benefits.
And why I'm trying to do all the buying of equipment that comes from
the EU *now*, before we lose the duty free relationship and the pound
gets any weaker (the last of which came from Bulgaria and I still need
some 3D printer stepper motors that come from (via) Germany).
I guess if you are old and only ever need to buy stuff from the Co-Op
at the top of the road, (that doesn't employ too many 'foreigners')
that wouldn't be so much of an issue.
Cheers, T i m