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NATO is bombing Russia's Voronezh-DM Ballistic Nuke Warning radars
http://www.911forum.org.uk/viewtopic.php?t=24514
Strike On Russian Strategic Early Warning Radar Site Is A
Big Deal
Joseph Trevithick
Fri, May 24, 2024 at 8:08 PM GMT+1·5 min read
https://www.yahoo.com/news/strike-russian-strategic-early-warning-190843708.html
https://www.newsweek.com/map-ukraine-record-breaking-hits-russian-nuclear-warning-radar-1905221
Satellite imagery confirms a Russian strategic early warning radar site
in the southwestern end of the country was substantially damaged in a
reported Ukrainian drone attack earlier this week. This looks to be a
first-of-its-kind attack on a site linked to Russia's general strategic
defense. As such, it points to a new and worrisome dimension to the
conflict, especially when it comes to the potential use of nuclear
weapons.
A satellite image taken on May 23 that The War Zone obtained from Planet
Labs of the Armavir Radar Station in Russia's southwestern Krasnodar Krai
shows significant debris around one of the site's two Voronezh-DM radar
buildings. These are ultra-high-frequency (UHF) over-the-horizon (OTH)
radars that are part of Russia's nuclear ballistic missile early warning
system.
![Emacs!](https://groups.google.com/group/uk-911-truth/attach/69660bf0c37d9/38c5a4a2.jpg?part=0.0.2&view=1)
A satellite image of the taken on May 23. Significant damage to the
southwest-facing Voronezh-DM early warning radar at the site and
associated debris are clearly visible. <em>PHOTO © 2024 PLANET LABS
INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRINTED BY PERMISSION</em>
A satellite image of the taken on May 23. Significant damage to the
southwest-facing Voronezh-DM early warning radar at the site and
associated debris are clearly visible. PHOTO © 2024 PLANET LABS INC. ALL
RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRINTED BY PERMISSION
What can be seen in the satellite image aligns with pictures taken from
ground level that emerged on social media earlier today, which show
severe damage to both structures housing the Voronezh-DMs at Armavir.
There is also clear evidence of multiple hits on the radar buildings. It
is worth noting that radar arrays are generally very sensitive and
fragile systems, and even relatively limited damage can result in a
"mission kill," rendering them inoperable for an extended
period of time.
The date the Planet Labs image was taken also aligns with initial reports
that the attacks on Armavir occurred sometime between May 22 and May
23.
At the time of writing, Ukrainian authorities do not appear to have
publicly claimed responsibility for the attack on Armavir. There also do
not look to be any official statements from the Russian government.
Ukrainian forces have targeted multiple locations within Krasnodar Krai,
which lies just across the Sea of Azov, in the past using kamikaze
drones.
There has been some speculation that Ukrainian forces may have targeted
Armavir over concerns about the site's ability to help provide advance
warning about its strikes involving U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile
System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles.
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Since receiving a new tranche of ATACMS in secret earlier this year, the
Ukrainian armed forces have been using those weapons to good effect
against Russian air bases, air defense nodes, and other targets. The
latest batch of ATACMS are also longer-range versions than had previously
been delivered to Ukraine's military, which have allowed them to hold
more targets at risk.
However, experts and observers have pointed out that the Voronezh-DMs at
Armavir are fixed in their fields of view, with the primary focus being
areas to the southwest. As an example, in 2013, Russian authorities said
that the site had detected what appeared to be a ballistic missile launch
into the Mediterranean from Libya.
The northern edge of the coverage area of the two radars reportedly does
cover the Crimean Peninsula, but there are questions about what the
Voronezh-DM, as an OTH, can 'see' that close and that obliquely,
especially if the targets in question are lower on the horizon. These
radars are primarily designed to detect ballistic missile launches from
much further away.
Regardless of Armavir's direct relevance to the conflict in Ukraine or
the exact intended goals of the attack on the site, it has much broader
ramifications. The two Voronezh-DMs at the facility are a key part of
Russia's larger strategic early warning network and their loss, even
temporarily, could only degrade the country's ability to detect incoming
nuclear threats. There are also concerns about how this could impact the
ability of Russia's overall strategic warning network to evaluate
potential threats and eliminate false positives due to possible loss of
overlapping coverage in certain areas.
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Beyond that, it has been pointed out that the attack on Armavir could
meet the conditions the Russian government laid out publicly in 2020 for
actions that could trigger a nuclear retaliatory strike. Russia's early
warning network is part of the country's broader nuclear deterrent
posture.
"The conditions specifying the possibility of nuclear weapons use by
the Russian Federation" include any "attack by [an] adversary
against critical governmental or military sites of the Russian
Federation, disruption of which would undermine nuclear forces response
actions," according to the Basic Principles of State Policy of the
Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence the Kremlin put out two years
ago.
All of this follows the start of tactical nuclear drills by Russian
forces in the country's Southern Military District, which borders
Ukraine, on Tuesday. The Russian Ministry of Defense had first announced
the drills were coming earlier this month and said they were "in
response to provocative statements and threats by certain Western
officials against the Russian Federation." This appeared to be a
reference to French President Emmanuel Macron saying that he would not
rule out sending troops to Ukraine in the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ov2o08yvXxY
The tactical nuclear drills had already reignited discussions about the
potential thresholds for Russia's potential use of nuclear weapons in
Ukraine, something The War Zone has explored in detail
previously.
This is also just the latest Ukrainian attack on Russian territory to
point to vulnerabilities in the country's air defense network, even
around highly-prized strategic assets.
It very much remains to be seen how exactly Russia will respond to the
attack on Armavir, which could potentially involve new nuclear signaling
to authorities in Ukraine, as well as the foreign benefactors. Whether
this attack is a sign of the start of a broader campaign on the part of
Ukrainian forces to target strategic military sites with limited direct
involvement in the ongoing conflict and significant importance to
Russia's early warning and nuclear deterrent postures is also
unclear.
Whatever the case, the Armavir will have significant ramifications and
could be an indication that spillover from the war inside Ukraine is
taking on a newly concerning form.
Contact the author:
j...@twz.com
www.thisweek.org.uk
www.abolishwar.org.uk
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