Looking at China's Economy Next Year at the End of the Year – There Is No Hope (Wei Jingsheng) | 年终看明年中国经济 -- 没希望 (魏京生)

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Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1704-W1233
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号:A1704-W1233
 
Release Date: December 16, 2024
发布日:2024年12月16日
 
Title: Looking at China's Economy Next Year at the End of the Year – There Is No Hope (Wei Jingsheng)
标题:年终看明年中国经济 -- 没希望 (魏京生)
 
Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准(英文在前,中文在后)
 
Note: Please use "Simplified Chinese (GB2312)" encoding to view the Chinese parts of this release.  If this mail does not display properly in your email program, please send your request for special delivery to us or visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2024/report2024-12/WeiJS241216on2025ChineseEconomyA1704-W1233.htm which contains identical information.
 
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Looking at China's Economy Next Year at the End of the Year – There Is No Hope
-- Wei Jingsheng
 
 
Xi Jinping convened a central economic conference, talked a lot of nonsense, and then passed a policy statement.  According to convention, the first paragraph was a notice to reassure the Chinese people, saying that the problem of insufficient consumption should be solved.  The next part was the actual content, that is, how to solve the problem of insufficient consumption.
 
What measures he is going to take?  It's still related to the real estate market, the stock market and the salaries of local governments, which have nothing to do with ordinary Chinese.  Can these three main contents solve the problem of insufficient consumption in China?  I don't think so.  It seems that the rich Chinese can take a last sip, and then move abroad like Syria's Assad and live a good life.  Who cares about the Chinese people?  "Après nous, le deluge."
 
This Assad is really weird.  He deposited tens of millions of British Pounds in a London bank, and transferred more than 10 million US dollars before leaving Syria instead of paying the salary to his army, so that the army disbanded on the battlefield and was defeated by a group of guerrillas.  Maybe Xi's group of corrupt officials are inspired from this and are also doing the last scrape of the land, preparing to leave China.  The country and the people are nothing to them, and the common Chinese don't like these guys anyway.
 
Some people retort: is not the stabilizing of the housing market and the stock market saving the economy?  Then let's see how they are trying to save the economy and expand the consumer market in China.
 
First of all, the real estate market in China.  Over the years, the prices of real estate have been raised, and corrupt officials and their white gloves have made a lot of money, but most poor Chinese cannot afford to buy houses in China.  Some small middle-class people followed corrupt officials to speculate in real estate, which did activate some markets.  But the main force is large enterprise operators under the collusion of the government.  High housing prices have fattened them up.  They can transfer money to the accounts of their wives and children overseas to help other countries to develop their economy.
 
In the past few years, the housing prices have finally been unbearable, and the ensuing price plunge would be a good opportunity for the market to self-regulate.  But the capitalists and scholars of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) began to cry and make a fuss, saying that when the real estate market collapses so will the Chinese economy collapse.  This was to create public opinion for continuing to raise house prices and to continue to make money from the ordinary Chinese.  So, policies to subsidize real estate with taxpayers' money are constantly introduced.
 
Is this policy really to stabilize real estate?  That was cheating.  A decline in real estate prices can make it possible for the poor to buy houses, and it can also solve the problem of unsalable real estate, recover capital, and continue the economic cycle.  As for the white gloves of corrupt officials going bankrupt, let them go bankrupt, which is normal in a market economy.  Those who make wrong decisions must be held accountable, which is reasonable and beneficial to China and its people.  Of course, this is not in the interests of corrupt Chinese officials, nor in the plans of Assad and others who are going to abandon the ship and flee.
 
The situation of the Chinese stock market is similar.  The economy is stagnant, and the stock market is definitely not good.  So how can these big guys who manipulate the stock market continue to make money?  They use the tax money of the people to invest in the stock market, drive up the price and make the last profit.  Then use digital currency to conveniently transfer it overseas, laying the foundation for their wives and children to continue to live in luxury with expensive houses overseas.
 
Some people say that part of the funds is to be used to pay salaries to local governments, which should still be conducive to expanding the consumer market in China.  This needs to be analyzed.  For the lowest-level civil servants, it can increase the consumer market and stabilize their hearts and minds to continue to serve the big guys.  However, most of the civil servants have already consumed several times more than ordinary Chinese in terms of wages and benefits.  Giving them more money will not increase consumption, but only increase savings.  Therefore, this part will not expand the consumer market, but only stabilize the hearts of the autocratic team and ensure the stability of the political situation before fleeing.  This is smarter than Assad in Syria.
 
Since the ruling group has already shown a bad posture for the end and is desperately preparing their escape routes, coupled with the United States' determination to fight a trade war with China, it can be said to be adding insult to injury.  Next year's Chinese economy will inevitably be the final stage of the bad economy, when a large group of so-called big men take their wealth and run away; a large group of so-called middle-class people will become bankrupt and join the ranks of the poor, while the poor, especially the young people with no way out, have only have two options left: either rebel or commit crimes.
 
Next year, China's politics will also enter a state of great turmoil along with its economy.
 
 
(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation.  Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)
 
Original link of this commentary:
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/guandian/pinglun/2024/12/16/wjs-chinese-economy-wei-jingsheng-2025/
 
To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2024/WeiJS241215on2025ChineseEconomy.mp3
 
Related screenshot of Wei Jingsheng's commentary on RFA website:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2024/newsletters2024-4/WeiJSon2025ChineseEconomy241216RFApage.jpg
 
(Written and recorded on December 15, 2024.  Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on Dec. 16, 2024.)
                                              
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中文版
 
Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1704-W1233
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号:A1704-W1233
 
Release Date: December 16, 2024
发布日:2024年12月16日
 
Title: Looking at China's Economy Next Year at the End of the Year – There Is No Hope (Wei Jingsheng)
标题:年终看明年中国经济 -- 没希望 (魏京生)
 
Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准(英文在前,中文在后)
 
如有中文乱码问题,请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2024/report2024-12/WeiJS241216on2025ChineseEconomyA1704-W1233.htm
 
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年终看明年中国经济 -- 没希望
-- 魏京生
 
 
习近平召开了一个什么中央经济会议,说了一通废话之后,通过了一个政策声明。按惯例第一段话是安民告示,说是要解决消费不足的问题。接下来才是要作的实际内容,也就是如何解决消费不足的措施。
 
什么措施呢?还是楼市、股市和地方政府的薪水,没老百姓什么事儿。这三项主要内容能解决消费不足的问题吗?我看不能。倒像是让大款们再捞最后一把,然后像叙利亚的阿萨德一样转移到国外,自己过好日子去了。本国的老百姓就无所谓了,管它洪水滔天呢。
 
这个阿萨德确实够奇葩的。他在伦敦银行里存着几千万英镑,临走还转走了一千多万美元,就是不给军队发工资,以至于军队临阵解散,败给了一帮游击队。可能习总的一帮贪官污吏从此得到了启发,也在做着最后的刮地皮,准备一走了之。国家人民对他们来说就是个无所谓,反正老百姓也不待见这帮家伙。
 
有人反驳说,稳定房市股市不是在救经济吗?那咱们就来看看他们是怎么救经济,怎么扩大消费市场的。
 
首先是房地产市场。多年来抬高房地产市场价格,贪官污吏和他们的白手套赚得盆满钵满,可是多数穷人却买不起房子。一些小中产们跟着贪官污吏炒房,倒是也活跃了一些市场。但主力是政府串通下的大企业,高房价养肥了他们,他们能把钱转移到海外老婆孩子的账户上,帮助别人发展经济去了。
 
最近两年终于扛不住房价了,价格暴跌正好是个市场自我调节的好机会。可中共的资本家和学者们开始大哭大闹,说是什么房地产崩溃经济就要崩溃了。这是给继续抬高价格造舆论,这是要给继续割韭菜造舆论。于是就不断出台用纳税人的钱补贴房地产的政策。
 
这个政策是为了稳定房地产吗?骗人的。房地产下跌正好可以让穷人买得起房子,正好可以解决房地产滞销的问题,回收资本,继续经济循环。至于贪官污吏的白手套们破产,那就让他们破产吧,这在市场经济中很正常。做出错误决策的人必须为此负责,合情合理,利国利民。当然,这不符合贪官污吏们的利益,不符合弃船逃跑的阿萨德们的计划。
 
股市的情况也差不多,经济停滞,股市肯定不好。那这帮操纵股市的大佬们怎么继续割韭菜呢?用老百姓纳税的钱投入股市,炒高价格再赚他最后一笔。然后用数字货币方便地转移到海外,为老婆孩子们在海外继续花天酒地住豪宅打下基础。
 
有人说一部分资金给地方政府发工资,应该还是有利于扩大消费市场吧。这个可要分析着看。对于最底层的公务员,可以增加消费市场,也安定他们的人心继续为大佬们服务。可是公务员中的大部分,其工资福利等消费已经是老百姓的几倍,给他们加钱不会增加消费,只会增加储蓄。所以这部分也没有扩大消费市场,只是稳定了专制队伍的人心,保证了逃亡之前政局的稳定。这个比叙利亚的阿萨德高明一些。
 
既然统治集团都已经摆出了烂尾的架势,不顾一切为逃亡的路线做准备,又加上美国下决心要打贸易战,可谓是雪上加霜。明年的中国经济必然是烂尾经济的最后阶段。一大群所谓的大佬们带着财富润出去;一大群所谓的中产们成为破产户,加入到穷人的队伍中。而穷人,特别是没有出路的年轻人,就只剩下了两条路:要么造反,要么犯罪。
 
明年中国的政治也会随着经济进入到大动荡的局面。
 
 
(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来相关的无偿贡献,特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)
 
评论的原始链接:
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/guandian/pinglun/2024/12/16/wjs-chinese-economy-wei-jingsheng-2025/
 
相关录音:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2024/WeiJS241215on2025ChineseEconomy.mp3
 
自由亚洲电台发表魏京生相关评论的网页截图:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2024/newsletters2024-4/WeiJSon2025ChineseEconomy241216RFApage.jpg
 
(撰写并录音于12月15日。自由亚洲电台2024年12月16日播出。)
 
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