The Tweney Review: Tech trends 2007.
d f tweney
even part-time pundits like me - to make their predictions. For
someone who loves tech products, it's an even more titillating time,
because CES brings an avalanche of them. So here are 7 key tech trends
for 2007, and a measurable index (my prediction) for each one.
NB: I posted a version of this newsletter to my blog earlier this week,
and already one of my predictions -- the first one, about Apple's phone
lacking a keypad -- has come true. In the coming year, I'll keep a
running tally of my prediction success at this article's URL:
http://dylan.tweney.com/2007/01/05/tech-trends-2007/
Simplicity.
People are getting tired of a storm of buttons, menus, and options, and
industrial designers are starting to notice. The Apple phone, if one
comes out this year, will not have a keypad. Keypads are inelegant, and
Jobs hates that shit. If Apple can convince consumers to buy an MP3
player with no screen, it can get us to buy phones without keypads
(it's just possible that an Apple phone will have a hidden, slide-out
keypad, but I doubt it). Many other cellphone makers will follow suit.
STATUS 1/9/2007: Nailed it. The iPhone does not have a keypad.
Interconnectivity.
I'm talking about software-to-software connections here. Applications
will continue to get hooked up, linked up, and mashed up. Web service
vendors that don't offer a way for users to create mashups with other
web services will be increasingly marginalized. However, as 2007 ends
you will realize you've never used one of these mashups more than
once or twice.
Mobility.
Everything is getting smaller, more portable, and more wirelessly
connected. This will continue. There will be several PCs this year with
folding keyboards and small screens, enabling them to fold up into the
size of a CD jewel case or a pack of index cards. One of them might
even be usable.
Interactivity.
Sites and services that offer interaction via real-time chats and
interactive audio/video conferences will zoom in popularity as they get
easier to use, and as people look for meaningful human connections
online. Someone will combine the expandability of a wiki with the
real-time WYSIWYG multimedia-ness of a shared whiteboard to create
something completely new. A wikiboard?
Half-asseditivity.
Wikipedia will continue to grow - and, spurred by its ability to
mobilize thousands of unpaid, under-qualified volunteers, dozens of
other sites will try to imitate its example. The result will be even
more half-assed, incorrect, unchecked text, audio, and video, with a
few gems lurking in the trashheap. Wiki backlash will peak when the
authors of Wikinomics are forced to take down their own wiki (or else
restrict editing to a small cadre of trusted individuals).
Advertisitivity.
The massive cash spigot that is Google AdSense will continue to attract
individuals and companies who want to scoop out just a tiny bit of that
flow. As a result, sites that are not buried in ads will become
increasingly rare. The ad-content ratio on several major publishing
sites (as measured by pixel area on the home page) will surpass 50%.
Greenitivity.
Being green (using less power, producing fewer greenhouse gases, and
consuming fewer resources) will become increasingly important to
consumers. Companies will adopt real, substantive reforms initially as
marketing stunts - and then will expand these reforms as they
discover being green can save them money. At least one major tech
product in 2007 will be touted as completely recyclable/reusable and
low-power.
Gigantivity.
Yahoo is already taking heat for its seeming inability to make coherent
sense out of its zillions of products. Google is starting to stumble,
with a botched Blogger upgrade, decreasing quality of search results,
and even server slowdowns. Microsoft is launching an extremely risky
upgrade to Office. At least one of these companies will apologize in
2007 for having made a serious product design mistake.