--roy
-Tim
Late Night Scorecard:
Based on ratings from Sept. 20, 2004 through June 26, 2005, although
NBC's The Tonight Show with Jay Leno remains the late night franchise
to beat, CBS' The Late Show with David Letterman continues to narrow
the gap. The Tonight Show and ABC's Nightline and Jimmy Kimmel Live are
down by minor proportions year-to-year, while NBC's Conan O'Brien
continues to own the 12:30-1:30 a.m. hour.
What follows are the season to-date results in late night (with change
versus the year-ago period in parentheses):
Mon.-Fri. 11:30 p.m.-12:30 a.m.
The Tonight Show With Jay Leno (NBC)
HH: 4.2/11 (- 5), Total Viewers: 5.80 million (- 4), A18-49: 2.0/ 9
(-13), A25-54: 2.4/ 9 (- 8)
The Late Show With David Letterman (NBC)
HH: 3.3/ 9 (+ 3), Total Viewers: 4.49 million (+ 4), A18-49: 1.6/ 7 (no
change), A25-54: 1.9/ 8 (no change)
Nightline (ABC)
HH: 2.6/ 7 (-10), Total Viewers: 3.53 million (- 9), A18-49: 1.1/ 4 (-
8), A25-54: 1.4/ 5 (- 7)
Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC)
HH: 1.2/ 4 (- 8), Total Viewers: 1.53 million (- 6), A18-49: 0.6/ 3
(-14), A25-54: 0.7/ 4 (-13)
It always kind of amuses me when Letterman partisans write these
ratings updates. The reality is that it's highly unlikely Letterman
will ever regularly beat "The Tonight Show" again. Letterman usually
can't even beat "Tonight" reruns. He'll win a night here and there in
the overnights if he has a really newsworthy guest, or if Leno has both
hands tied behind his back (i.e. is on vacation *and* airing 15 minutes
late).
My unsolicited advice to those who enjoy his show is to stop being
concerned about the ratings (it's not like he's in danger of being
cancelled) and about what other people are watching. It's really not
that important in the grand scheme of things. Personally, I think both
Letterman and Leno are pretty tired, and I'd rather watch whatever is
on CN.
>> Dave's probably going into his homestretch in
>> late-night. He may even give it up before Jay does, especially if
>> Stewart decides he wants to move (I know, longshot) or Ferguson makes
>> inroads on Conan (even bigger longshot).
>Dave will leave before Jay, or on the exact same day. He will not want
>to know if his ratings would be better or worse than Conan's Tonight
>Show.
>These are my predictions.
With respect -- you're both 180 off.
I won't elaborate.
>My prediction is that he's gone before Leno.
I could grab a lot of cash betting against these predictions.
Isn't it still the case that the Tonight Show and Late Show ratings
difference roughly mirrors the 11pm local news ratings, and that NBC
local news still nominates CBS at 11pm? And that Late Show beats
Tonight in the very odd market that CBS wins at 11pm....yawn ... and
basically the late night ratings have little to do with either show.??.
Or am I just a victim of Dave propaganda??? zzzzzz