NFL - new TV rights deal

[Adam Bowie]

I thought this Variety piece on the upcoming network renegotiation of NFL rights was interesting.

https://variety.com/2021/tv/news/nfl-tv-rights-1234907305/

It seems that the NFL is seeking to double the rights fees paid last time around. But those deals were done about ten years ago now.  Obviously the vast audiences these games still command - particular getting hard-to-reach men, makes them valuable. 

On the other hand, the piece concedes: "The networks were already having trouble turning a profit on NFL games; there’s no doubt that anything close to a doubling of those fees would make that even harder if not impossible."

The outcome will be interesting.

As a keen watcher of sports rights, I note that around the world, sports leagues have found the current climate harder to monetise than previously. In both Italy and France recently, the main football (soccer) TV rights auctions did not make the reserves the leagues had set. In both cases, they're now facing significant drop-offs in revenues. In the UK, the last round of EPL rights, which are sold every three years domestically, were basically flat in revenue terms. (France is fascinating - the main rightsholder, a new player, basically bailed on the deal mid-season. The rights were re-auctioned, but the long-term previous incumbent, Canal+, declined to bid. Now the entire French game is in a state of flux. It seems like Canal+, as the only real bidder in town, is waiting to pick up a relative bargain for when the league becomes desperate.)

[PGage]

This will be interesting. Given how long these deals are, the hike can be seen as something like 10% a year for ten years, but that is still outrageous given that ratings have been trending down. Still, even at a loss the NFL is still probably worth it to the networks. The result will be even more ads, in between and during the action. The morons at the NFL will not rest until they have made their game completely unwatchable. 

Disney is getting hosed, and NBC has the best deal. If I were Disney I would be insisting on ways to get better games

I will be most interested into what happens with the Sunday Ticket package. If they partner with Amazon and make the price to the consumer reasonable (which Amazon may be willing to subsidize to drive more users to Prime and its overall service, it could be another nail in the networks coffins.

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[Jim Ellwanger]

Aside from two versions of the Red Zone channel (one "regular' and one focused on fantasy football), NFL Sunday Ticket just presents the regular Fox and CBS game broadcasts, complete with commercials -- and blacks out the games that are airing on the viewer's local affiliates. Presumably that would continue on an Amazon version of Sunday Ticket, using the viewer's IP address and other info to handle the blackouts. (DirecTV uses the ZIP code on the subscriber's account.) In theory, therefore, it's more of a supplement to the network broadcasts, rather than competition that would draw a lot of viewers away from them.

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[Steve Timko]

This has enormous consequences for affiliates as well. There are some advertisers who advertise only or mostly during sports. Disrupting that would cause problems.

If networks pass along some of the increased costs to the affiliates, that's another problem.

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[PGage]

I used to subscribe to it back in my DirectTV days. The ability to switch to any game is another way to avoid almost all commercials, plus their Red Zone. 

It is a threat to network ratings though, if 10%-20% of viewers would rather watch out of market games (which, depending on your market, your own games may often suck). When I had the package, even if my local games were of interest, I would flip back to games on the Ticket during commercials, or if they became more compelling.

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[Adam Bowie]

I guess there's a balance to be made, but all the networks are probably thinking more of their streaming services in the mid- to long-term (and probably short-term for Disney), so incurring losses for kudos and/or audience will be interesting to see.

I wouldn't bank on Amazon subsidising sport in any meaningful way. I think the world over, sports leagues are hopeful that the streamers will make up for any flattening of traditional broadcast revenues, but so far they've not really bitten. In the UK, Amazon got the tiniest slither of EPL rights - after again the first round of bidding didn't make the reserve. I know the EPL was hopeful of them (or Netflix) making a splashy entrance to keep prices high. But Amazon has notably bought cheaper rights around the world. The same with Facebook who have picked up a few sports rights in a few locations. 

I can totally see the NFL directly marketing their Sunday Ticket offer via Amazon, but whether Amazon would significantly subsidise that is another question. With Amazon having north of 126m Prime subscribers in the US already, do they really need to incur a big loss to reach the last standout households that aren't already Prime? The counter to that is that if you could only get it with a Prime stick, and not a Roku stick, then Amazon shifts a lot of Roku (and Samsung/Google TV/whoever) households to using their TV interface. Either way, there are said to be only 2m Sunday Ticket subscribers, so not massive numbers. But perhaps that's a factor of Sunday Ticket not being enough on its own to shift a household to a different TV provider.

I bet there's some fascinating number crunching going on at the big networks...

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[PGage]

As you say, it will be interesting to see how the calculations come out. 

Amazon is the sponsor of The Red Zone, and streams I think both SNL and TNF. I think they would find it useful to make The Ticket available at a better price than DirectTV did, since they have so many other ways to monetize it.

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[JW]

> I think they would find it useful to make The Ticket available at a
> better price than DirectTV did, since they have so many other ways to

> monetize it.

How does the cost compare to Game Pass? Unless you're a serious enough out-of-market fan of a team to need to see the game live, waiting a day or so is probably acceptable.

As far as the networks go, I've read in the past that the value of promoting shows on NFL games makes up for whatever revenue shortfall they may experience.

[Jim Ellwanger]

NFL Sunday Ticket cost about $300 through DirecTV this past season (although I got it free, unsolicited, and anecdotal evidence is that they gave it free to a lot of people who had subscribed to other pay-per-view sports packages -- I did pay for the MLB package).

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[PGage]

I think there are a significant number of fans who are as or more interested in out of market games as their own, and like to watch the games unfold without already knowing who won. If the anti jet is $300 I think we will find Amazon offering it for 20% x 40% less.

I think the point here is that the self promotion is what made NFL packages barely justifiable in the current deal, and that doubling that price may make it hard to justify in a second deal. No doubt the NFL is banking that the networks will have no choice but to sign at least one 10-year deal that is ridiculously over priced, rather than risk getting out of the NFL one cycle too soon, and being at a critical competitive disadvantage.

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[Adam Bowie]

I see the new NFL deal has been done:

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-announces-new-broadcast-deals-running-through-2033-season

Amazon gets Thursday nights exclusively outside local markets of the two teams. Everyone else broadly as-is, except that they can put their games on Peacock, Paramount+ and whatever Fox comes up with.

I don't see any mention of Sunday Ticket though...

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[Brad Beam]

From: tvor...@googlegroups.com [mailto:tvor...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Adam Bowie

>I see the new NFL deal has been done:

> 

>https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-announces-new-broadcast-deals-running-through-2033-season

> 

>Amazon gets Thursday nights exclusively outside local markets of the two teams. Everyone else broadly as-is, except that they can put their games on Peacock, Paramount+ and whatever Fox comes up with.

 

Fox has Tubi. (Also, don’t forget ESPN+.)

 

MNF remains on ESPN – with the ability to flex games - while ABC gets the spot in the Super Bowl rotation, starting with LXI after the ’26 season.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2021/03/18/nfl-11-year-broadcast-tv-amazon-cbs-fox-nbc-abc/4755254001/

 

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[Doug Eastick]

I'm curious if Thursday night on Amazon is only in USA.     Or if it applies in Canada as well.

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[John Edwards]

That depends on what the NFL’s contract with TSN says. I know NFL Network runs alternate programming in Canada during games. 

John 

Sent from my iPhone

On Mar 19, 2021, at 1:55 PM, Doug Eastick <eas...@mcd.on.ca> wrote:



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[pbrown...@gmail.com]

Any word on whether this affects DAZN's deal for NFL streaming rights in Canada? The NFL had one playoff game in January on Amazon only, and it was available in Canada on Amazon Prime, as well as on TSN/CTV.