Will there be a Trump TV?

[Tom Wolper]

Two articles out today say no. One looks only at a cable channel and the other considers Cable TV and a subscription streaming service. Both say that a startup would cost cost hundreds of millions and would take years to break even. Trump does not put his own money into projects and his reputation with banks is so awful that they won't provide startup investment.

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/why-trump-tv-probably-wont-happen

http://fortune.com/2016/10/17/trump-tv-fail/

[Doug Eastick]

If he loses the election, it will be interesting to see how his brand gets damaged from the fallout of the election.  Probably something he didn't foresee. 

Who knows, maybe he's Extreme Bigly Smarter than I am.

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[Kevin M.]

His brand is bolstered by his antics, just as Paris Hilton bolsters the Hilton brand... no such thing as bad publicity. 

If Trump's cult of rich white men wants it, they can find the funds to create a network for him to mouth off, but I suspect, as was the case when Romney lost, that Trump will lose most vocal support if (please God) he loses. Rich white men only like to back a winner.

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[Steve Timko]

The few rich white men I know loathe Trump. His supporters are the Birthers and TEA party types.

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[Jim Ellwanger]

> On Oct 17, 2016, at 1:47 PM, Kevin M. <drunkba...@gmail.com> wrote:
>

> His brand is bolstered by his antics...

The data seem to be trending in the opposite direction.

http://digiday.com/brands/5-charts-trumps-damaged-brand-numbers/

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<http://www.ellwanger.tv>

[Steve Timko]

Trump says No Trump  TV.
Trump: 'No interest' in Trump TV; campaign debuts show: http://bigstory.ap.org/65ad38be95bf42d19f25d041d9df5ea4&utm_source=android_app&utm_medium=copy_to_clipboard&utm_campaign=share

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[PGage]

In first episode of the Trump Show on Trump TV, Trump says he has no interest in doing a Trump Show or running a Trump TV, despite how bigley it would be...

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[Tom Wolper]

On Wed, Oct 26, 2016 at 1:23 AM, PGage <pga...@gmail.com> wrote:

In first episode of the Trump Show on Trump TV, Trump says he has no interest in doing a Trump Show or running a Trump TV, despite how bigley it would be...

On Tuesday, 25 October 2016, Steve Timko <steve...@gmail.com> wrote:

Trump says No Trump  TV.
Trump: 'No interest' in Trump TV; campaign debuts show: http://bigstory.ap.org/65ad38be95bf42d19f25d041d9df5ea4&utm_source=android_app&utm_medium=copy_to_clipboard&utm_campaign=share

At this late date, how can anybody think what Trump says has any credibility? He gave the right answer, that he is concentrating on the election, but if the financing came about (unlikely), he'd talk like he never said that there would be no Trump TV.

[PGage]

I am not understanding why a web based "Trump TV" is capital prohibitive? Can't they just have a parade of Alt-Righties doing hour long faux news reports, 2 hour commentary/interviews, and talk-radio type call-ins for 12 hours a day and do ads, maybe with some premium ad-free content? Trump does not really need to make a lot of money, just not lose a lot, and feed his ego.

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[Tom Wolper]

On Wed, Oct 26, 2016 at 2:02 PM, PGage <pga...@gmail.com> wrote:

I am not understanding why a web based "Trump TV" is capital prohibitive? Can't they just have a parade of Alt-Righties doing hour long faux news reports, 2 hour commentary/interviews, and talk-radio type call-ins for 12 hours a day and do ads, maybe with some premium ad-free content? Trump does not really need to make a lot of money, just not lose a lot, and feed his ego.

Maybe you or I could do that if we were so inclined, but not Trump. His fragile ego won't let him be in a room with a Murdoch or Bloomberg and have them laugh at how Mickey Mouse his media operation is.

[PGage]

I see. So the argument is not that he can't do a web-based Trump TV, but that it is not what he wants, because it could not challenge the media big boys.

I am not so sure about that though. Yes, he has a bigely and fragile ego, but I think that what that ego wants is not so much to challenge Fox News in terms of ratings, revenue or net profits, but to challenge Fox News, (and Limbaugh and National Review and Drudge) in terms of influence and leadership in the conservative movement. If Trump could say in 4 years that nobody can get the GOP nomination without coming on his network, and maybe even getting his endorsement, I think he would be happy.

On Wednesday, 26 October 2016, Tom Wolper <two...@gmail.com> wrote:

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[Kevin M.]

I agree with PGage on this one. If all Trump had was a rickety soapbox to stand on, he'd use it to stroke his ego and spout off, Alex Jones style. 

It is not a stretch to imagine Trump and Roger Ailes collaborating to establish -- not just a TV station -- but a media network, with streaming online content, books, "Harvest Crusade" style gatherings, and on and on. A modern "old boys" club... a legal hate group. 

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[Tom Wolper]

On Wed, Oct 26, 2016 at 3:05 PM, Kevin M. <drunkba...@gmail.com> wrote:

I agree with PGage on this one. If all Trump had was a rickety soapbox to stand on, he'd use it to stroke his ego and spout off, Alex Jones style. 

It is not a stretch to imagine Trump and Roger Ailes collaborating to establish -- not just a TV station -- but a media network, with streaming online content, books, "Harvest Crusade" style gatherings, and on and on. A modern "old boys" club... a legal hate group. 

On Wednesday, October 26, 2016, PGage <pga...@gmail.com> wrote:

I see. So the argument is not that he can't do a web-based Trump TV, but that it is not what he wants, because it could not challenge the media big boys.

I am not so sure about that though. Yes, he has a bigely and fragile ego, but I think that what that ego wants is not so much to challenge Fox News in terms of ratings, revenue or net profits, but to challenge Fox News, (and Limbaugh and National Review and Drudge) in terms of influence and leadership in the conservative movement. If Trump could say in 4 years that nobody can get the GOP nomination without coming on his network, and maybe even getting his endorsement, I think he would be happy.

I'm going to continue to disagree. Trump is not a member of the conservative movement. He's not on the same page as the writers of the Weekly Standard and National Review and he has no respect for the leaders of the movement or their institutions. What he knows about the issues he knows from talk radio and FNC pundits. To a narcissist failure comes from the betrayal of those around him. Trump will come out of this election with a deep grudge against the Republican Party for not giving him the full-throated endorsement he needed to bring him a victory. He will look at other donor groups like executives from financial services and insurance who did not donate to his campaign and he will hold a grudge against them as well.

He also knows he is losing his metaphorical megaphone as well. The cable news channels are not going to ask his opinions on topics of the day when there are active office holders and pundits out there. He is not going to hold rallies for tens of thousands of people any more. They backed a loser and will move on to find the next charismatic leader. And he has become toxic to anybody who is not one of his followers.

When the election is over and the hoopla has died down, Trump is going to have to deal with the upcoming Trump University trial, the misuse of funds from his foundation, the accusations of predatory sexual behavior, etc. His brand and properties will probably take a huge hit from the backlash. I don't see him putting in the effort to get a shoestring online media operation off the ground.

[Kevin M.]

If I thought Trump TV would be a conservative network, I'd agree with you, but consider a network branded to Trump's whims, just like his campaign. No ideology, no concrete principles or values... let Trump be Trump. To me, it is media hell, but millions of Americans are currently buying what he's selling. If even a fraction of them, say 5 percent, literally buy his media, it would beat most of the competing cable networks. 

People forget Ailes is not a staunch conservative either, he's a pragmatist. He oversaw CNBC's evening talk lineup with Tom Snyder, Phil Donahue, and a then liberal Geraldo Rivera, among others. His baby, the America's Talking network -- despite its flaws -- was a mix of political views. He ultimately aligned FoxNews with the GOP, modeling it after AM talk radio, which is far more successful with conservative voices than liberal ones. 

We define success a number of ways. Trump could define such a network as a success, even if the rest of us saw it as a failure. 

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Kevin M. (RPCV)

[PGage]

I agree with your analysis but not your conclusion. You are right that Trump is not a Republican, or even a traditional, institutional conservative. They will hate him, and he hates them. But all of this is I think why he will be motivated to do something like Trump TV. If he loses his election (one of the few Republicans who probably could have managed to do it, at least as easily as it appears he will) and costs the GOP the Senate, he will play no elder statesman role in the Republican Party, and I don't see him going back to his reality show on NBC. His hotel brand is badly damaged. 

He never was a majority figure even with the Republican Party - he is the king of leverage, and in politics, he managed to leverage enthusiastic support from about a third of the Republican Party into first a plurality than a majority to get the nomination. I think he will want to create a space in which he can hear the applause and get the adulation that he is increasingly not going to be able to find anywhere else. An internet space for the angry 15% to 25% of the country, where ugly and vile attacks can be spoken as inconvenient politically incorrect truths would be just what would sooth his damaged soul. The fact that this would be just about the worst thing that could happen to the Republican Party would seem to be the cherry on top for him.

[JW]

Businessweek on the present and post-election future of the Trump campaign: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-27/inside-the-trump-bunker-with-12-days-to-go

[Adam Bowie]

On Thu, Oct 27, 2016 at 2:11 PM, JW <redb...@gmail.com> wrote:

Businessweek on the present and post-election future of the Trump campaign: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-27/inside-the-trump-bunker-with-12-days-to-go

Thanks for that - a really fascinating read.

Reuters published a fun "make your own Trump TV" web gizmo that lets you attempt to balance the budget on the venture to see if it would be profitable:

http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/breakingviews/1/235/285/index.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social

But the web-thing above is predicated on monthly OTT subscriptions - certainly not a proposition that's bundled into a regular cable package. And I must admit that I don't see a web-only proposition as working for him. It would exist in its own world for its own supporters and not get the mainstream attention that Trump craves. And it might work as a business model, but I'm not sure that preaching to the choir is what Trump wants to do. Isn't that essentially the world of right wing talk radio hosts like Alex Jones? 

Incidentally, I learned most of what I know about Alex Jones from Jon Ronson, who's written a great Kindle short about Jones, the alt-right and Trump if that's your sort of thing: https://www.amazon.com/Elephant-Room-Journey-Campaign-Alt-Right-ebook/dp/B01LXOO7UQ

Adam