Netflix apparently wins the derby for WB

[Bob F]

Soon we will learn how close to POTUS Sarandos is... 

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/business/warner-brothers-discovery-netflix.html (link)

B

[M-D November]

On the face of things, this might be the best possible outcome for WB as a studio - I know there's some concern about whether Netflix will maintain WB's traditional theatrical release model, but this deal would at least maintain WB as a stand-alone entity and not a subsidiary of (or, worse, eventually absorbed by) Paramount or Universal. It maintains competition in the market, which would make regulatory approval seemingly more of a sure thing.

[Kevin M.]

Based on what I see from Netflix, and its flagrant disregard and disrespect for the art of filmmaking, this is no better than merging with another studio. 

Kevin M. (RPCV)

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[PGage]

I had bet my imaginary chips on Paramount getting WBD with all of its Trump butt licking, and as Matt Belloni at Puck News points out this morning, that outcome is still possible. The deal includes a $2.8 billion payout to Netflix if Warner Bros. Discovery sells to someone else. But if the Ellisons decide they want it badly enough, they have the resources to outbid Netflix with an offer around $80 billion — with the $2.8 billion penalty just the cost of doing business.

Belloni also notes that the Trump butt licking could still pay off for Paramount if regulators suddenly sprout antitrust wings and block the deal. Already, Trumpy Senator Mike Lee, who chairs the relevant committee, has expressed grave concerns — putting him in bed with the likes of Elizabeth Warren.

Hollywood’s creative community is freaking out at the loss of a traditional, theatrical‑minded studio. But as others have pointed out, no matter who bought WBD, contraction in the theatrical business was inevitable. Paramount wasn’t going to run two parallel studios; at best, output might have ticked up slightly, but job losses and content cuts were always baked in from the moment of the Warner Bros. Discovery merger. Zaslav’s mandate was simply to reduce debt enough to make the company sellable — and he’s done just that.

As Belloni wrote:

“And once again, a remarkable turn of events for Zaz, who in more than three years, managed Warner Discovery from $24 a share down to around $7 or $8, only to be rescued by this sale [with a share price of about $27.75]. The guy destroyed so much value and so many jobs to save his flailing Discovery Communications, all while keeping his eye on his own outsize compensation, and he’ll probably end up with well over $100 million in additional winnings and either a cushy role at the new company or a spot on the Netflix board. Kinda unbelievable.”

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[Bob F]

On the Kennedy Center Honors red carpet, Diaper Man-in-Chief didn't seem too amused with the proposal, saying he'd talked with Sarandos about it and given the potential market share, "it could be a problem." (And no, CBS isn't doing the festivities live.)

https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/trump-netflix-warner-bros-deal-market-share-could-problem-1236602926/ (link)

B

PGage, to moi, Dec 5th:

[PGage]

The other shoe drops…

“Paramount on Monday mounted a hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, a brazen attempt to secure a Hollywood prize snatched away by Netflix last week.

Netflix announced an $83 billion deal to buy a big part of Warner Bros. Discovery on Friday, in an agreement approved by the boards of both companies. In a news release on Monday, Paramount went around the Warner Bros. Discovery board and straight to shareholders with what it called a superior offer.

Paramount said it would pay $30 per share in cash, valuing the company at around $108 billion, including debt. It said it was going to shareholders because the board of Warner Bros. Discovery is “pursuing an inferior proposal” that would lead to “a challenging regulatory approval process.”

Paramount has offered to buy all of Warner Bros. Discovery, including the Warner Bros. movie studio, the HBO Max streaming service and a portfolio of cable channels including CNN. The cable channels are not part of the Netflix deal….

A key part of assessment will be whether shareholders expect that regulatory authorities will approve the transaction. The deal between Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery would include Warner Bros. movie studio and HBO Max, enhancing Netflix’s market power in streaming even more. At the Kennedy Center Honors on Sunday, President Trump praised Ted Sarandos, Netflix’s co-chief executive, but noted that the company had a “very big market share,” adding that he would be “involved” in the regulatory review.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/business/paramount-warner-bros-discovery-netflix.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

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[Kevin M.]

Ain’t no party like a monopoly party, ‘cause a monopoly party only has one attendee. 

Kevin M. (RPCV)

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[M-D November]

Putting aside the Ellisons' close proximity to MAGAville, I don't see why regulators would have issues with Netflix but be OK with Paramount. Both have streaming services (although there's no argument which has the bigger existing marketshare), and both have existing studios (although one is fledgling while the other is a legacy studio). Any way you look at it, legislators like Warren should have issues with further consolidation of the industry.

Plus, any Paramount/WB deal would result in considerable redundancy, both in personnel and in holdings - you'd have to imagine there'd be divesture, particularly in cable TV...

[PGage]

Precisely. Elizabeth Warren, and her crowd (And me) Would be suspicious of both deals. Trump is only pretending to be concerned about antitrust and will only be suspicious of the Netflix deal.

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[Bob F]

An unsigned letter to members of Congress from what sources tell V is a group including multiple Hollywood biggies portends the worst from the deal:

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/anonymous-filmmakers-netflix-wbd-open-letter-congress-1236600659/ (link)

B

PGage, to M-D November, Dec 8th:

[Kevin M.]

Looking at this sale pragmatically, is there anybody with the funds to buy Warners who might actually do right by the legacy name? Anyone rich enough to buy it is either going to merge it or sell it for scrap. 

Kevin M. (RPCV)

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[PGage]

There’s really only two options right now Netflix or Paramount, who are willing to pay this probably inflated price. But if there was robust antitrust in enforcement in both deals were squashed then there would be the option for another buyer who is really interested in the film studio to come in with a fair offer just for that property and maintain and grow that ongoing source of creativity in the film industry.

Of course, more often than that we haven’t really had a robust antitrust enforcement in this country so it Has seemed inevitable for quite some time at the end of the Warner Bros. discovery story is going to be significant contraction. 

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[Kevin M.]

It would be interesting if a collective of artists, actors, writers, producers, and directors assembled to buy the studio. Specifically, all the ones with more money than they could possibly spend in a lifetime who have vocally opposed the sale. Let them put their money where their mouth is.

Kevin M. (RPCV)

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[M-D November]

So some sort of UNITED coalition of ARTISTS, then...?

[Kevin M.]

I know. Not an original concept.*

* Preferably not named Cruise

Kevin M. (RPCV)

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[PGage]

I know what you mean, but this is the difference between absurdly, rich individuals, and obscenely, wealthy corporations, and assholes.

I see they estimate Tom Cruise’s net worth at $600 million George Clooney at $500 million, those are likely to be two of the highest net value actors could have in mind. To match the Paramount offer, The new collection of United artists you have in mind would have to come up with about $109 billion. They would need 200 actors with the net worth of George Clooney to pledge their entire net worth to buy Warner Brothers. Now I suppose for a deal like that, they wouldn’t have to put all their own cash up, But still, the idea of a collection of extremely wealthy, basically wage earners being able to match the capital investment of major corporations, or the top one percent of individuals has not really practical. Maybe more likely is George Clooney and you don’t want Tom Cruise but maybe Brad Pitt and Julia Roberts and Tom Hanks together scrape together $2 billion and are able to get Warren Buffett to front them the rest.

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[Kevin M.]

In my imaginary world where people behave in a more socially conscious way, Warners would gladly sell itself for less money to a group of industry professionals who are more interested in maintaining the studio than holding a liquidation sale. 

My suggestion was more of a rhetorical exercise. Ultimately, a poorly run company will buy it and absorb its assets. Maybe Netflix, maybe Paramount. If not them, then Disney… or Coca Cola. 

Kevin M. (RPCV)

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