Gn Berman Limits Solutions

[Lilliana Adames]

BermanSarrazin is an independent research and education center that dedicates its work to better understanding the birth and burst of bubbles in and out of financial markets.

Berman Sarrazin creates and supports scientific research on complexity, randomness, and irrationality.

From this research, Berman Sarrazin derives tools and solutions for regulators, financial firms, and medical institutions.

Our research shows that even if taken at only its bayesian definition, irrationality does not always explain the biases and paradoxes that are empirically observed. it is rather our assumptions about the world around us which are wrong than the way we derive statistical inferences from them.

Johann Wolfgang von Goethe wrote that Man was not born to solve the problem of the universe, but to find out what he has to do; and to restrain himself within the limits of his comprehension.

It is most certainly true that the universe will remain at a level of complexity beyond our comprehension. Yet, we are beings of desire and we naturally wish to push the limits of what we understand.

The Santa Fe institute, a leading center on complexity science, sees complexity as arising in any system in which many agents interact and adapt to one another and their environments. These interactions and adaptations result in evolutionary processes and often surprising "emergent" behaviors at the macro level.

Our research shows that it is possible to find some order in an evolving complex system. A financial market, for instance, is a complex open system where prices derive from all the different expectations of market participants about other participants. Yet, we can identify periods of equilibrium (i.e., bubbles) where the market is less complex.

The Random Walk Hypothesis states that the evolution of a stock price is random and thus unpredictable. Randomness is such a large concept that it could define almost any process. How can we be sure that an observed pattern is not due to randomness itself?

After all, a roulette ball can fall on black 20 times in a row and the person sitting next to you in a waiting room may have the same birthday as you. Those are random events with a very peculiar pattern: they are unlikely to be observed.

Since we derive statistical inferences from what we observe in the world, we deem unlikely events as being "not random". In the same way, we consider as random any event that displays features of randomness.

Project: we seek to better understanding randomness in human-driven events such as a financial market. A market is governed not by a fair coin toss but by decisions of people; accordingly, its apparent randomness should be generated by people who believe that this market should be random.

The BASTT DataBase is a comprehensive database of historical index levels, bubble sensitivity levels (Berman Scale), and trading signals for 24 major world indices.

The data has been designed to provide its user with reliable information for econometric, empirical, and investment strategy purposes.

The BASTT DataBase includes approximately one year of daily data and 25 years of monthly data. Both time series (daily and monthly) are updated nightly to reflect new closing index levels, bubble sensitivity levels, and trading signals.

We offer consulting in behavioral finance and on the following topics: irrationality, complexity, and randomness. Our consulting solutions help businesses in understanding the choices and preferences of their clients. We examine how bubbles form, persist and burst in specific settings (e.g., real estate, art). We also help in designing information campaigns and during negotiations by using behavioral science research on psychological heuristics and quantitative paradoxes (i.e., status-quo bias, anchoring, isolation effect, St. Petersburg paradox).

Recent legislation in the House of Representatives highlights the discussion of national security risks from the use of TikTok have identified three potential sources of danger. The first is that TikTok is part of a nefarious Chinese government influence operation designed to sway U.S. politics. The second is that TikTok can be used to collect personal data on Americans. The third is that voluntarily downloading TikTok onto phones or devices allows for the injection of malicious software by China. Only the third source creates serious risk.

One area of real risk is in installing and updating the TikTok app. In effect, TikTok users are voluntarily downloading Chinese software into which they have minimal or no insight, onto their devices. Even if the app has been screened and declared clean by an app store (a protection the European Union is inadvertently undermining with its Digital Market Act), there is no guarantee that future updates and patches will include malware.

Banning TikTok faces significant likely insurmountable obstacles and relation to free speech, which is protected by the First Amendment. The Berman Amendment also limits the ability to use sanction laws to restrict speech. Previous efforts to ban TikTok have all failed because of these obstacles, and while his administration is cognizant both need for any action against TikTok to withstand judicial scrutiny, a ban would face lengthy litigation and would likely fail.

Whether TikTok is complicit or not, the United States should manage the risk created by deep technological connections to a hostile and untrustworthy nation that is undertaking the largest espionage campaign in history. Legislation and executive branch authorities can minimize risk while allowing TikTok to continue to operate. Broader solutions could include finally passing a national privacy law, expanding transparency into software supply networks, and restricting cases where the use of Chinese technology creates risk. Not all Chinese technology creates risk, but real risks can be mitigated, including those attributed to TikTok.

Commentary is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

Geoff Gross is the founder and CEO of Medical Guardian. With over 18 years of experience in the Personal Emergency Response industry, he has championed solutions for aging adults that empower independence, promote wellness, and enable them to live a more full and active life without limits.

Geoff's expertise in connected care and healthcare tech has been widely recognized; he was named one of Metro Philadelphia's Top Health Care Power Players in 2023 and currently serves as the President of the Medical Alert Monitoring Association (MAMA). Geoff has been dubbed "The Senior Savior" by the Philadelphia Citizen, recognized as Ernst & Young's Entrepreneur of the Year in 2019, named a 2018 & 2021 Glassdoor Top CEO, and has been among Philadelphia Business Journal's "Most Admired CEOs" and "40 Under 40."

Geoff brings an entrepreneurial mindset to everything he does and has built an organization that focuses on innovation, connectivity, and care, listening to their members and health plan partners to develop products that improve health outcomes and reduce healthcare costs. Medical Guardian has been listed on Inc.'s 5000 list of fastest-growing companies for 11 consecutive years and has been named one of the "Best Places to Work" by the Philadelphia Business Journal.

Geoff is as dedicated to his community as he is to his company and members. He serves on the board of the National Multiple Sclerosis Society of the Delaware Valley and is a member of the Young President's organization (YPO). He has recently co-chaired "Cheers for CHOP," a premier fundraiser for Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. Prior to that, he was the founder and co-chair of "Preakness at the Piazza," a fundraiser that benefits MS research and has raised nearly $1M since its inception.

Mark joins Medical Guardian with more than 25 years of management experience, 10 of which were focused in the Healthcare space. Mark's most recent role was as CEO of Connect America, a leading provider of personal emergency response systems. During his six years there, Mark significantly expanded the company's Marketing and Sales capabilities, helping grow the business to one of the largest providers in North America.

Before Connect America, Mark spent four years at CVS Pharmacy, where he managed a healthcare department focused on disease state management and home healthcare. During his time there, he was able to significantly grow market share and drive increased profits.

Mark's passion is to motivate and support teams of great people. He strongly believes that working together is the key to delivering exceptional results. In addition to running the day-to-day operations and working closely with each department, Mark also plays an essential role in obtaining new business and partnerships to fuel Medical Guardian's growth in the coming years.

Jim brings over 20 years of leadership experience in capital markets, mergers & acquisitions, finance, accounting, and information technology to Medical Guardian. His background spans across biotechnology, Medicaid managed care, healthcare information technology, and specialty distribution. He has worked with both large and small growth companies across all sectors of the healthcare industry, including BGB, HealthPRO Heritage, FedBid, and iBiquity Digital Corporation.

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