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Kim Cheetham

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Dec 4, 2015, 11:10:22 AM12/4/15
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Here’s the latest.
 
Kim
 
Sent: Tuesday, December 01, 2015 5:44 PM
Subject: AirportWatch Bulletin for November 2015
 
AirportWatch Bulletin for November 2015
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The November AirportWatch news bulletin is now at AirportWatch Bulletin for November 2015

The runway drama has been maintaining a high level of intensity in recent weeks, with today being no exception.  The Cabinet sub-committee with the task of deciding on a runway was due to meet today - but due to the more urgent matter of bombing Syria, has been postponed.  That meeting may now take place next week instead.

It is thought that the full Cabinet this Thursday would have then discussed the sub-committee's conclusion. That  might now happen at the Cabinet meeting next Thursday.  An announcement is expected in Parliament some time after that, and before the 16th December.  Nobody seems to really know.

Today the Environmental Audit Committee (EAC) published their report into "Airports Commission Report: Carbon Emissions, Air Quality and Noise".  It examined the environmental implications of the Commission's recommendation of Heathrow, and what the Government and Heathrow should do about them.

The EAC concluded that: "The Government should not give final approval to Heathrow expansion until the airport can demonstrate that it accepts and will comply with key environmental conditions."  Their report is at  Airports Commission Report: Carbon Emissions, Air Quality & Noise

Their conclusion states: "The Government should not approve Heathrow expansion until Heathrow Ltd. can demonstrate that it accepts and will comply with the Airports Commission conditions, including a night flight ban, that it is committed to covering the costs of surface transport improvements; that it is possible to reconcile Heathrow expansion with legal air pollution limits, and that an expanded Heathrow would be less noisy than a two runway Heathrow. In each case - climate change, air quality and noise - it needs to set out concrete proposals for mitigation alongside clear responsibilities and milestones against which performance can be measured. It should report regularly to Parliament, through this Committee and others, on progress. The Government should not avoid or defer these issues. To do so would increase the risks of the project: delay through legal challenge, unquantifiable costs resulting from unclear responsibilities, economic risks through constraint of other sectors to meet increased aviation emissions and longterm costs to public health from the impact of air pollution and noise."

For details on the EAC’s Conclusions and Recommendations on Heathrow, sections summarised separately:
 
Surface access  - “the Government has been clear that it expects the scheme promoter to meet the costs of any surface access proposals that are required as a direct result of airport expansion and from which they will directly benefit.” see http://www.airportwatch.org.uk/?p=28809
 
CO2 emissions – the Government “should as a minimum, commit to accepting the CCC’s advice on aviation in relation to the 5th carbon budget, introducing an effective policy framework to bring aviation emissions to 2005 levels by 2050 no later than autumn 2016."   see http://www.airportwatch.org.uk/?p=28811
 
Air pollution –  "Before the Government makes its decision, it should make its own assessment of the likely costs of preventing an adverse impact on health from expansion at Heathrow and publish it."  see  http://www.airportwatch.org.uk/?p=28818
 
Noise - "The Government should not approve Heathrow expansion until Heathrow ltd. can demonstrate that ....an expanded Heathrow would be less noisy than a two runway Heathrow."  see http://www.airportwatch.org.uk/?p=28820

None of that will make getting a Heathrow runway approved any easier.  The EAC held two evidence sessions, the members were well briefed and asked perceptive and important questions.  It has been very helpful to have their considered opinion on environmental matters, on which the work of the Airports Commission contained many, serious omissions.

Gatwick has definitely not been ruled out, and GACC (the Gatwick Area Conservation Campaign) says several of the conditions set out by the EAC also apply to Gatwick.  Namely:

1.    Noise.  The condition that Heathrow should be less noisy with three runways than with two would absolutely rule out a new Gatwick runway.  The figures produced by the Airports Commission showed that Gatwick with two runways would affect three times as many people as it would with one runway.

2.    Ban on night flights.  A similar ban would be needed at Gatwick but would equally be opposed by GAL.

3.    CO2 emissions.  Exactly the same considerations would apply at Gatwick.

4.    Air Pollution.  Although a new Gatwick runway might not breach EU limits it would adversely affect more houses than one at Heathrow.

5.    Surface access infrastructure.  The suggestion by Gatwick that they would pay for all the road and rail improvements needed for a second runway is disingenuous because it applies to 2030 when the new runway is forecast to be only one-third full.  By contrast the figures used for the infrastructure costs at Heathrow assume the new runway would be two-thirds full. 

The environmental problems of both Heathrow and Gatwick airports have frequently been in the news. The serious concerns about air pollution have not been helped by the VW emissions scandal.  The CAA permitting changes to flight paths, which have the effect of concentrating aircraft noise along narrow routes, have caused continuing anger, upset, anxiety and depression.

There is also more evidence to question the alleged economic benefits of a new runway. The Richmond Heathrow Group have looked at just how many transfer passengers are anticipated, with a Heathrow 3rd runway.   Remarkably, about 50% of the new runway capacity would be used for international-to-international transfers. http://www.airportwatch.org.uk/?p=28358  

In addition, a professor of economics from Brunel University has assessed the claims by the Airports Commission, of huge benefits to the UK from a Heathrow runway – and found them to be very dubious indeed.  He believes the Commission has presumed unreliable indirect benefits, and there would not be an economic case for the 3rd runway without the supposed benefits to the national economy. The predictions of "up to £147 billion"  are not believable. There are only small predicted direct benefits, which could be as low as £11.8 billion (carbon traded model) or just £1.4 billion (carbon capped at the level suggested by the CCC) - over 60 years. Details at  Critical Analysis of Airports Commission figures

And  Willie Walsh (CEO of International Airlines Group, which owns BA) has confirmed, yet again, that his airline (over 50% of the slots at Heathrow) is not prepared to pay for a runway. And he cannot believe it could possibly cost £18 billion.  He says if it costs that much, it will fail.  Expensive runway would fail   He is not prepared to pay for a Gatwick runway either.

Representatives of flight path groups have held meetings with DfT staff, and recently also met the Aviation Minister, Robert Goodwill. There is realisation in the DfT, the CAA and NATS that the way airspace changes are dealt with needs to be improved and made more accessible to the public.  The people to be adversely affected by aircraft noise should be properly consulted and their views actually taken account of. http://www.airportwatch.org.uk/?p=28749  

There are details about all this, and more, in the bulletin.   AirportWatch  Bulletin for November 2015

People living in real fear and despair about the prospect of a Heathrow runway have been protesting, and making their opposition known in many ways.  These included a protest about air pollution outside the EAC evidence session, attended by John Holland-Kaye and Sir Howard Davies.  There was a flash mob in Heathrow Terminal Two.  An aviation bloc (with the Heathrow No 3rd Runway plane) took part in the Climate March on 29th November. Aviation Bloc at the march.  And three activists from Plane Stupid blocked the main road entrance tunnel to Heathrow Terminals 1 and 2 (there are other road entrances to Heathrow, so it is not endangering anyone) for over three hours, by positioning a van across the road and locking onto it.  Heathrow tunnel blocked

Some photos below.
 Heathrow tunnel No Ifs No Buts banner 26.11.2015 



2015 Climate March

The November bulletin
 http://www.airportwatch.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/AirportWatch-bulletin-November-2015.pdf

CONTENTS

Page 1
- Willie Walsh says Heathrow’s runway is too expensive, at that price it would fail and be a “white elephant” -  the airlines will not pay
- John Holland-Kaye won’t commit to no Heathrow night flights  (11.30pm to 6am)

Page 2
- John Holland-Kaye and Sir Howard Davies gave evidence  to the Environmental Audit Committee (EAC)
- 3 arrests after Plane Stupid block Heathrow tunnel for 3 hours using a van + activists locked onto it

Page 3
- Ten MPs and council leaders write to PM to warn over air quality problems of Heathrow 3rd runway
- Heathrow plans to double its volume of air freight, necessitating more trips by diesel powered HGVs and goods vehicles

Page 4
- Heathrow never mentions imports, only exports – but imports larger by tonnage and by value than exports
- Heathrow air cargo tonnage falling recently - just 1.76% higher in 2014 than in 2010

Page 5
- Richmond campaign shows Heathrow runway would lead to 50% of the new capacity used for international transfers
- Environmental Audit Committee says government should not permit Heathrow runway without strict environmental conditions

Page 6
- "No 3rd Runway” flashmob at Heathrow Terminal 2
- Critical analysis of the Airports Commission economic figures, by an Economics Professor, sent to Cabinet Members

Page 7
- TfL confirms extent to which Airports Commission underestimated Heathrow runway impact on surface access
- Simon Jenkins comment: Don’t buy the idea that Heathrow expansion is ‘good for the nation’
- Teddington Action Group show – from Heathrow report – that they are now suffering more aircraft noise

Page 8
- Group of Heathrow Community Noise Forum members express concerns about the airport’s treatment of the Forum
- Number affected by Gatwick night flights up 15% last year – 12,850 in the larger 48 dB Leq contour
- Though Gatwick number of passengers is up 5.7% this year on 2014, number of flights only up by 2.6%

Page 9
- Stewart Wingate says Gatwick won’t give up on its 2nd runway – whatever the government says
- The CAA’s disappointing PIR finally published, showing only one Gatwick route to be slightly changed

Page 10
- New group in Tunbridge Wells, TWAANG,  against increased Gatwick noise
- Meeting of Cabinet’s runway sub-committee postoponed from Tues 1st December

Page 11
- Gatwick hopes a YouGov poll of Londoners (not local people) favouring its runway over Heathrow, will help its case
- George Osborne launches National Infrastructure Commission, under Andrew Adonis, so UK can “think big again”
- Robert Goodwill on flight path noise problems: “we must think about this carefully”

Page 12
- Edinburgh TUTUR flight path trial ended 2 months early  – but residents say changes persist
- Despair in East London as CAA approves new concentrated flight paths  – there may be a legal challenge
- Jeremy Corbyn reported as saying we should “look at the under-used capacity” of other airports

Page 13
- Lands Tribunal rules that residents near Farnborough can claim if their homes have been devalued by more flights
- BA pilot’s eye damaged by ‘military’ laser shone into cockpit at Heathrow – plus many less serious attacks
- Work on the new Nantes airport at Notre-Dame-des-Landes might start by early next year

Page 14
- Solena, the company meant to be producing jet fuel from London waste for BA, goes bankrupt
- Some useful info

------------------------

And just a few little items for which there wasn't space in the bulletin:

A 2 foot diameter metal "diffuser" fell from a plane, into the pool of a popular water park near Chicago. Luckily it fell early in the morning before anyone was using the park, so nobody was hurt.  Diffuser falls from plane.  Just one of those hazards of living under a flight path ....

A survey by SellingUp/Populus shows the serious impact of plane noise on attitudes of house buyers.  The survey suggests if a house suffers from being subjected to plane noise, 41% of potential buyers would not proceed with the sale, and 34% would ask for money off, (including 23% who would ask for a "substantial amount or many thousands of £s off the price). 9.11.2015  Survey of effect of plane noise on house sales

The Paris Climate Talks are taking place, but there is almost no prospect of any effective measures to limit the growth of global aviation emissions. The final draft text before the conference contained the following [stunningly,unambitious, weak] text on aviation, with the alternative being no text at all:

“Option 1: Parties [shall][should][other] pursue limitation or reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from international aviation and marine bunker fuels, working through the International Civil Aviation Organization and the International Maritime Organization, respectively, with a view to agreeing concrete measures addressing these emissions, including developing procedures for incorporating emissions from international aviation and marine bunker fuels into low-emission development strategies. Option 2: No text.” (draft agreement text, page 12)   More details from the AEF on aviation and the Paris talks.

And here is a picture - apparently spotted in Paris - that fits in with the spirit of the paragraph above.



Hope to bring you more news and updates - if and when a government announcement is made about the runway in the next 2 weeks.

Kind regards

Sarah Clayton
AirportWatch co-ordinator
www.airportwatch.org.uk

Email:  in...@airportwatch.org.uk

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