La Weather Forecast 21 Days

[Courtland Boland]

Thisproduct is designed to be a one page, simple look at recently observed and a three day forecast of space weather conditions. A brief description of why conditions occurred or are forecast is also included for each category. Users requiring a more detailed explanation of events should refer to the Forecast Discussion.

A plain language, single page forecast text product issued every 12 hours, at 0030 and 1230 UTC, with both forecast and observed criterion now broken down for each of the three NOAA Scale categories. Each section includes a brief forecaster written rationale.

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OpenWeather is a team of IT experts and data scientists that has been practising deep weather data science. For each point on the globe, OpenWeather provides historical, current and forecasted weather data via light-speed APIs. Headquarters in London, UK.

Weather models indicate numerous opportunities for measurable precipitation during the next 10 days as several strong upper atmospheric troughs move across the northern Plains. The first systems is projected to slide through the region this weekend and generate thunderstorm activity along the surface cold front that will slide southeast out of the Dakotas. The best opportunity for moisture appears to be across northwestern Nebraska from Saturday evening through Sunday morning. This area then shifts to the eastern half of the state from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

One weather model indicates thunderstorms could continue into Tuesday morning across eastern Nebraska; however a couple models hint at the cold front clearing the state by Monday with dry conditions building into the central Plains through Wednesday afternoon. Depending on the model, another cold front is projected to move through the state between Wednesday afternoon and Saturday morning.

The second cold front is currently projected to bring well below normal conditions to the northern Plains, possibly reaching as far south as central Kansas. If this cold front verifies, a period of active thunderstorm development is likely during the second half of next week. As the cold air shifts to our east, monsoon moisture is projected to return to the Plains the last full week of August, which would bring additional chances for moisture across the western Corn Belt.

The most recent quantitative precipitation forecast for August 14-20 calls for a broad area of 0.75-2.75 inches across Nebraska. The highest precipitation totals have been assigned to central and northeast Nebraska with amounts of 1.50 to 2.75 inches. East central, southeast, and south central Nebraska are currently projected to receive 1.00 to 1.50 inches. Further west, precipitation forecasts are for 0.50 to 0.75 inch across the Panhandle and 0.75 to 1.50 inches across southwest and west central Nebraska.

More importantly, much of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio are projected to receive less than 0.75 inch of moisture across areas that were impacted during the first half of the growing season by excessively wet conditions. This would be on top of past 30-day trend where a substantial portion of the eastern Corn Belt received less than 50% of normal moisture. It will be interesting to see what impact this developing dry pattern will have on corn yields, since producers have been lamenting about the how shallow rooted the corn crop is in areas that received the brunt of flooding rainfall from May through mid-July.

Not much change in the overall pattern this week other than a gradual warming each day. The most prominent weather feature currently will be the cold nights ahead. There will be temperatures dipping into the middle 20s tonight as clear skies and light winds allow the mercury to dip quickly in the thermometer.

As for the forecast, we will be sunny and mild each day for the next several. The highs will be in the middle 60s over the weekend, then peak at 70 on Monday. There may be some light rain on the crests or west face of the Cascades Saturday, but not much will make it over the mountains.

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