Dfs Captain Showdown Optimizer
Kellye Tunks
Editor's note: Now available to all PFF ELITE subscribers, the PFF NFL DFS Optimizer gives both new and die-hard DFS players an opportunity to generate optimized single lineups and multiple lineups for DFS tournaments and contests on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo DFS.
DFS is a simple game: score more points than those in the same contest as you and win a weighted share of the pool. It is a form of parimutuel betting, in which all bets of a particular type are placed together in a pool (after the house takes its share), with the payoff odds calculated by splitting the pool based on the finish.
The way to win is to score more points than the other contestants following the game's rules. These rules force roster and salary constraints, so decisions are made on players who will help produce the most points.
In its most simple form, a DFS lineup optimizer takes the site rules and maximizes a fantasy-point projection to give you an optimal lineup. It packs the best players at each position into a bag without overloading the bag (or bypassing the salary or roster constraints).
If setting min./max. exposure, this option will recalculate exposure after each lineup built instead of calculating the entire base of lineups. This improves the diversity of lineups, as choosing a max. exposure of 50% will allow the player to be in the first and then fourth lineup build. This option is incompatible with locked players and will throw an error if selected with a player that is locked into 100% of lineups.
This is another setting that increases the diversity of lineups. It modifies the projection for each player by at least the min. percentage and at most max. percentages selected by the end-user. For example, a projection of 20 with 5% min. and 15% max. deviation would convert to somewhere between 17-19 or 21-23 for each lineup build. This is randomized to build lineups using a floor or ceiling projection instead of the standard median projection.
The team stacks allow you to build multiple customized stacks that can be used in a certain percentage of your lineups. This is a great feature to use if you are trying to build various stacks based on certain teams but want a diversified set of players from each team. This can also force a stack from any team into every one of your lineups.
The adjusted column in the player pool allows you to change the player's median projection to any value you would like. This will be taken into account in the optimization, with the variance in projections built off this newly adjusted fantasy points projection. This is a great way to squeeze players you like more than our projections do into a majority of your lineups.
Min. or max. exposure allows you to force constraints on how little or how much a player is included in your lineups. Instead of using Ban/Lock, you can set a percentage of total lineups that will still allow you to have the player in a certain percentage of lineups without being included in every lineup build.
Our default options are a great place to get an initial idea of our projection's favorite players relative to salary. The stack option forces a two-player stack from any team, and that stack includes a quarterback and either a wide receiver or tight end.
This provides some initial correlation into every generated lineup. We also have our maximum repeating players default to two, which forces each lineup to be more unique because of the requirement to be dissimilar to the previous lineup built.
This ensures that we will get one or two pass-catchers from the opposing team in every one of our lineups, without necessarily locking in one specific player into all of our lineups. This creates diversification, which allows us to select maximum repeating players to any, since we are more focused on a core subset of players we have built into each lineup.
The game stack can also be achieved by locking in a set of players that we like based on their shootout potential. This provides more concentrated builds, so setting exposure limits and adding variance to projections will help to provide more diversified lineups if this route is chosen.
Showdown is fairly simple for newer players, but the selection of the correct captain is vital to any sort of lasting success. One of the best ways to approach this selection process is to read the quality work done for each island game by PFF's Kevin Cole. In his showdown series, he highlights the best plays that provide the most leverage based on historical matchups. The optimizer can help identify the best value based on salary and projection.
Showdown is also an excellent opportunity to add variance to projections that emphasize floor and ceiling outcomes. These floor and ceiling ranges can be adjusted by the user to account for as much or as little variance as you anticipate in the matchup.
This is a complete tutorial showing how to attack and win NFL Showdown on Fanduel and Draftkings using the DFS Army Domination Station Optimizer. The Domination Station optimizer has produced first-place winners on a majority of showdown slates since the inception of the format. This video will cover some rules of thumb and go over the nuts and bolts of how I set up the tool to attack these very winnable contests. We cover: How to control the CPT/MVP spot. How to set up rules designed to create correlated lineups that mirror lineups that tend to win tournaments. How to control and adjust exposures. How to use our ownership projections and how to create uniqueness by leaving salary on the table.
The Super Bowl is finally here, but that means there is only one opportunity left for fantasy football enthusiasts to take part in single-game DFS contests. Patrick Mahomes is going for his third Lombardi Trophy. Meanwhile, Brock Purdy is looking to supplant himself as Mr. Relevant with his first Lombardi Trophy.
However, this 49ers-Chiefs contest features plenty of big-name fantasy superstars outside of just the signal-callers. As always, the superstars carry hefty price tags, so we'll have to dive deep into this slate. The 49ers sit as a two-point favorite and the projected point total is currently 47.0. Ultimately, it's expected to be a nail-biter with plenty of scoring, a perfect scenario for a fun final DFS tournament.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on DraftKings for the 49ers vs. Chiefs NFL DFS showdown slate on February 11. You can see our FanDuel Super Bowl NFL DFS picks as well. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value selections. If you have any questions, sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with our NFL DFS analysts or find us on X!
It only makes sense to start with Patrick Mahomes in the captain spot. He has thrown four touchdowns and zero interceptions thus far in the playoffs. He has also averaged 25 rushing yards per game thus far in the playoffs. He will be up against a 49ers defense that allowed an average of over 232 passing yards per game to the quarterback position during the regular season. The fact that Kansas City is also a slight underdog in this game could lead to more passing from Mahomes as well.
This has become a popular play in a lot of circles and comes with good reason. McCaffrey has rushed for more than 90 yards in eight of his previous 10 games, including two weeks ago against the Lions in the NFC Championship. He has also averaged over 17 carries per game across his previous 10 games.
The matchup against the Chiefs is a solid one as well. Throughout the regular season, Kansas City allowed an average of 4.6 yards per carry to the running back position. The fact that San Francisco is slightly favored in this game could also increase the volume for McCaffrey down the stretch to help salt this game away.
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Normally, I would not want to pick a running back against this 49ers defense; however, recency bias has gotten the best of me here with Isiah Pacheco. Over the previous two weeks, the 49ers have allowed a total of 262 rushing yards to the running back position. In the Divisional Round, Aaron Jones burned them for 108 yards on 18 carries. Then, in the NFC Championship, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for a total of 138 rushing yards on 27 carries. This has not been the same 49ers defense and Kansas City could make them pay here.
Over the previous four games, Pacheco has averaged over 20 carries per game and 96 rushing yards per game. This Chiefs offense has built itself around their defense and rushing attack in recent weeks and that is likely the route they take in this game as strange as that may seem.
Travis Kelce has been an animal thus far in the playoffs as he has totaled 23 receptions for 262 receiving yards and three touchdowns. He has also seen a total of 27 targets, so he figures to be heavily involved yet again. Just two weeks ago, San Francisco allowed Sam LaPorta to torch them for nine receptions and 97 receiving yards, so they can certainly get beat by the tight end position.
This is a fun play. Butker has made two or more field goals in six of his previous nine games dating back to Week 13 at Green Bay. This 49ers defense has mostly been a bend-and-not-break defense as well, which tells me the Chiefs are likely to find some drives that land in San Francisco territory but do not end up in the end zone. Butker should get plenty of opportunities in the dome and has been deadly accurate on the season as he went 33-of-35 on field goal attempts.
We are going way down in the player pool for this one to save money for other spots. Juszczyk could be a nice play, especially if he hauls in a couple of passes and definitely if he finds the end zone. In the playoffs, he has seen three targets, all of which came in the NFC Championship against the Lions. I have heard several pundits say they like him to get involved early in the short passing game as it could help ease Brock Purdy into the flow of the game. If so, we would return value on this play rather quickly. He has also found the end zone twice this season, both times through the air.
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