Sudeep Shah : CNX Weekly Techno-Derivatives Snapshot (24/11/2014 – 28/11/2014)
Sudeep Shah
Dear Friends,
Following is the Analysis on Several Indices including Nifty, Bank Nifty, All F&O Stocks, Small Cap & Mid Cap along with VIX & USDINR, Derivatives Outlook.
CNX Nifty (CMP 8487):
Follow Up Buying support along with Short Covering has led the Indices to close at a Life-time highs inches away from 8500.
Expect Index to retest & find support around 8390-8410 zone & if 8390 holds, Index could further witness further upside upto 8600-8610.
If Index breaks & sustains below 8390, would witness a retest of support zone around 8280-8250 zone.
On the derivatives front:
Nifty saw OI addition of 2%, with price moving up by 1% W-o-W basis with maximum OI in 8500-8600 CE (with total 50-42 lakh shares respectively) and 8300-8400 PE (with total 67-66 lakh shares respectively). With 8500 PCR_OI 0.61, expect expiry 8450-8540.
BANKNIFTY (CMP 18056):
Past week, Banking Index witnessed buying on dips & closed 3% positive for the week outperforming the broader indices.
Index has approached overbought zone. However it pays to be with the trend & not against it. Hence the strategy should be to be a buyer on dips.
Expect Index to retest & find support around 17800-17850 zone & if 17800 holds, Index could further witness further upside upto 18400-18510.
If Index breaks & sustains below 17800, would witness a retest of support zone around 17500-17400 zone.
On the derivatives front,
BANKNIFTY saw OI addition of 16% with price moving up by 3%; with 18000 PCR_OI at 0.51, expect expiry 17900-18100.
Going forward,
Movement of the Markets would be dictated by FII Fund Flows, Global Market Trends, movement of Rupee against the Dollar & crude oil price movement.
USDINR (CMP 61.85):
USDINR has remained sideways around 61.50-62.10 previous week.
Now Going Forward, Till Rupee holds 61 zone, would once again move upto 62.80-63.20 zone.
Below 61, would retest 59.5 zone.
BRENT CRUDE ($ 80.84)
Crude Prices have rebounded upto 81 after hitting multi-year lows of 77-78 previous week.
Till 83$ is not crossed, expect support levels of 75-76$ to be retested.
Midcap: (CMP 12253)
NSE Mid-cap CMP 12,253 witnessed buying support on dips & closed 0.4% positive for the past week.
Going forward, till 11,980 holds, expect the index to witness short term upside upto upto 12,650.
Below 11,980 zone, support zone of 11,500-11,400 would be retested.
Small Cap (CMP 11,325):
BSE Small-Cap CMP 11,325 witnessed buying support on dips & closed 1% positive for the past week.
Going forward, till 11,100 holds, expect the index to witness short term upside upto upto 11,650.
Below 11,100 zone, support zone of 10,700-10,600 would be retested.
VIX (13.87):
VIX has once again broken down upto 12-13 levels after rising upto 17 zone few weeks back.
Going forward, till 11.50 holds, expect the index to witness short term upside upto upto 18.
On the derivatives front,
• FII’s for the past week have stayed net Buyers in the cash & derivatives markets while DII’s have turned Net Sellers for the 5th consecutive week gone by.
• On a Weekly basis In Index Futures FIIs were Net Buyers to the tune of ` 159 Cr with an open interest increase of around `245 Cr which indicates Long Build Up in Index Futures by FIIs.
• Nifty Futures for the next series have closed at a 11 points premium compared to 25 a week earlier.
Cumulative FII Derivatives Stats from 31/10/2014 to 21/11/2014:
Index Futures: +2000 Cr;
Index Options: +5497 Cr;
Stock Futures: -2467 Cr;
Stock Options: +37 Cr
Cash Market:
FII: +9614 Cr;
DII: -6235 Cr.
Cumulative FII Derivatives Stats from 17/11/2014 to 21/11/2014:
Index Futures: +159 Cr;
Index Options: +1935 Cr;
Stock Futures: -917 Cr;
Stock Options: -278 Cr
Cash Market:
FII: +271 Cr;
DII: -733 Cr.
For detailed Stock-Specific Techno-Derivatives Analysis on all the F&O Stocks, Kindly refer to the Attachment.
Warm Regards,
Sudeep Shah,
9320056400.