Omicron Update Dec 17
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Jon Freise
Dec 18, 2021, 1:55:40 PM12/18/21
to Transition Twin Cities
Hi Everyone,
Some really good data coming out about Omicron in the last few days. The short of it is that the Omicron "Tsunami" is coming very fast. The US could see a peak by late January that could possibly dwarf last winter, despite the vaccine.
The more that can be done to limit exposure (outside gatherings, N95 mask, working from home, etc) the smaller the virus exposure and the more chance our less than perfectly targeted antibodies will have of stopping the infection in the first place.
I am going to try to have a Plan B in place just in case we do get sick and need to isolate for 2 weeks.
Here is the latest update from Katelyn Jetelina. She is suggesting Omicron might be one of the most infectious viruses we have seen in modern times. The growth rates are staggering. She also does a good job talking through the immunity reduction studies that have been done to date. Boosters give the best protection we have against severe disease.
The UK Prime Minister and officials gave a briefing on the Omicron situation. I found it worth watching in full. Here are the bbc notes from that briefing.
The Chief Medical Officer Prof Whitty, starts giving remarks at 19 min into the press briefing.
A key takeaway I learned from Prof Whitty is he gave a big caution about Omicron causing less severe illness. He says we don't actually know that. When the outbreak happened in South Africa, they had just come off a large Delta wave. The community had built up substantial immunity. The appearance of Omicron having lower severity could have been caused by that fresh immunity and not a drop in the severity of the virus. We likely will not know Omicron's true severity until after it rolls over us.
Another key point is that this wave will come so fast that many medical personnel will catch Omicron and be out ill and that will reduce hospital capacity just as we need it most.
The UK NHS was calling for volunteer help to run booster sites.
Finally, MPR new covered a modeling study out of UT Austin that explores several different scenarios of infectiousness and severity.
One key point is that the peak will arrive very soon. Something like mid-January to mid-February across the range of scenarios. If there are lockdowns that will slow it down and "flatten the curve". There is not a lot of time for preparation.
Not the news we want to hear. Hopefully this will be less severe and everyone will get through it. But I hope you all take care of yourselves while we are learning more and coping with this big winter surge.
-Jon
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