Thoughts on Iran

[Jon Freise]

Hi Everyone,

There is plenty of analysis going on about what is happening with this war in Iran.  I want to explore this from two perspectives not discussed much:

What does this mean from the three scenario framework I laid out after Trump's win?  

And what happens to local Transition Town efforts?

What is being mentioned is how unprecedented this attack was because the President does not have the power to declare war and cannot invoke the War Powers Act unless there is an imminent threat.  But no such threat was provided to congress (remember the false Weapons of Mass Destruction used to justify the attack on Iraq?)

So from a three scenario framework the President had prior seized congresses ability to allocate money.  Now he just seized the Congressional power to declare war.  And, because the US was a representational Republic, the power of the US citizens to declare war (or not).  Again, the checks and balances have failed.  If they had worked the Republican party would be drawing up articles of impeachment.  Yet, nothing.

This is a foreign war of choice that is basically using the US military as a mercenary force (paid for by the US taxpayer) to do the bidding of people who have bribed the current administration.  I think we are seeing the formation of an Axis of fossil fuel exporting nations.  And they are seizing control of other fossil fuel exporters: Venezuela and now Iran.  Venezuela was not turned into a democracy, but a dictatorship that was forced to bend the knee.

I also think this makes clear the admin is not actually concerned about the midterms.  Foreign war is unpopular with all Americans.  Lots of US veterans are bitter about the endless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  With no pressing reason to attack, why not wait until November or December?  I would put forward the case that this admin feels they will have made a mid term loss impossible.  Thus they can now do whatever they want.  That might be an incorrect view, but I think that reflects their thinking.

I would put forward that this admin feels they will have consolidated enough power by November that the US citizen no longer has a say.  They don't need their own base any longer.  They can do the mercenary dirty work of Saudi Arabia and no matter how that angers the MAGA base and Democrats alike, it will not change the outcome.

(some might argue that they rushed to do this before losing in November, but I don't think that argument is supported because Trump always does what will save his own skin.  If he felt threatened, he would be doing what he needed to win.)

All this puts us firmly in the third scenario.  An oppressive white supremacist and fossil fuel autocratic regime that has international territorial ambitions.

On the local level what does this mean?

Once power has consolidated enough, say after the Democrats are defeated in the midterms, then policies like a military draft may be introduced to pull recruits into the army.  Probably class based, like Vietnam, where college kids get a deferment.  But it might not.

Overall inflation will increase.  Other nations are starting to reduce holding the dollar as a reserve currency.  The value of the dollar is falling.  That will increase the cost of purchasing things from outside the US (like oil).  Eventually it will raise the cost of paying for the US debt causing dramatic cuts in Federal government services.  Climate change and resource depletion also increase inflation.  So do tarrifs.

Taxes on the working class will increase as Federal funds are directed to external wars.  State, county and city taxes are rising.  They will keep rising because they cannot borrow money.  Services will be cut.  Roads will go unrepaired.

Federal social services will be cut.  Research etc.  Anything not military or police related.

If the Fed cannot borrow and thus prints money to continue deficit spending, then inflation will likely become runaway, as investors refuse to buy more debt and the currency collapses.  Think of the Greek or Russian financial crisis.

Again, from a local point of view, figure out where you can get local grains and beans.  Those farmers might need some kind of spring investment to do planting.  And then pay out in crops.  Join your coop board and start a discussion of alternate finance for the staple food suppliers.

A wood stove that also can burn soft brown coal is likely the longest term heating investment.  An unleaded gasoline cookstove (only use outside).  And a small set of solar panels and battery for small electronics.

The reason for thinking ahead is that purchasing power will become difficult to come by (no affordable credit, high prices) and so it can be very hard to make changes once the economy goes south.

Let us hope that it does not come to this outcome and that power consolidation was miscalculated and the midterms are an effective check and balance.  That is my wish.  But I don't think the administration believes that will happen.  And if they are right, then we have a decade or more of mismanagement to survive.