Europe: Russia's divide and conquer strategy?

[Jon Freise]

I do not follow European politics closely, but the last EU elections caught my attention.  So did the return of Nigel Farage in the UK.

The history of conflict of Germany against France and the UK in WWI and WWII put a reunified Europe in position against the Soviet Union.  Germany was right on the border with the captured East European nations (including half of Germany) but was not trusted with nuclear weapons needed for deterrence.

All the native nuclear weapons in Europe are in the UK and France.  Breaking those nations away from Europe is a very clear Russian strategic goal.  The Brexit deal, led by Nigel Farage, was thought to be one of the first Russian social media influence campaigns (but of unknown effectiveness).  He went into hiding while the economic fallout of Brexit took out a couple other Prime Ministers.  Now he is back, and announcing that the West provoked the war in Ukraine.  Again, we see Russia's influence.

Right wing and Russia sympathetic (supported?) Marine Le Pen is edging out Macron in the EU elections.

The US has normally held an additional arsenal of nuclear weapons in Europe under the NATO umbrella.  Trump is very clearly allied with Putin against NATO and Europe.  I don't know the exact nature of the relationship, but it is clearly there by his actions.  And those have expanded to now include much of the White Nationalist Christian, Oil Company, and Libertarian alliance that has seemed to seize the RNC.  Tucker Carlson (my bet as a potential Trump successor) visiting Moscow, for example.  (Oil company ties to Russia have existed for decades.)

If those campaigns work, that would leave Germany and Eastern Europe in an unthinkably terrible position: Almost totally dependent on Russia for fossil fuels AND with no nuclear deterrent.  I would not be surprised if the war in Ukraine and US refusal to support the protection of national sovereignty quickly led to the abandonment of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.  And that would mean regional wars could easily become nuclear wars.

These are interesting times.

https://www.csis.org/blogs/brexit-bits-bobs-and-blogs/did-russia-influence-brexit