Climate and Crime

[Jon Freise]

There is a lot going on right now.

Pape and Krugman have the Iran war and damage to the economy well covered.  I won't go over that ground.

Richard Heinburg did some nice interviews about his writing on the Oil Depletion Protocol over on Resilience that are worth reading.

On the three scenarios: We see every branch of the Republican party from the Federal to the State level race to implement the return of Jim Crow voting.  It is totally coordinated.  The idea that there is still a "resistance" to Trump in the Republican party is just plain silly at this point.  We can toss that sheepskin word "conservative" in the trash can now and see clearly the Confederate wolf beneath.  They don't even feel the need to hide any longer.  That pretty well tells you where we are at.  We were hoping the checks and balances of the midterms might stop them but that looks less likely.  Still a worthy effort even if the % likely hood of it working is low.

This time I wanted to jot a quick essay about a local story from MPR: About gasoline being stolen out of cars by having holes drilled in the gasoline tank.  Because it reveals a lot about our present moment.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2026/05/09/twin-cities-residents-report-gas-stolen-from-vehicles

Most gas tanks hold about 10 gallons = $45 at todays prices.  The damage from the hole drilled to steal those $45 bucks worth of gasoline? $3000.

The problem is that the thief earns the $45 but does not pay the $3000 cost.  So they have an incentive to keep doing this behavior.  But society as a whole is taking a huge loss.  Society as a whole is losing $3000 every time the thief takes this action.

This is capturing the profits while externalizing the loss that drives all polluting industries, crime, corruption, selling addictive and damaging substances, conquest, oppression, slavery, etc.

This is an example of the fractal nature of behavior systems.  The same incentive structure can exist for the car thief stealing $45 and the international oil company that supports a dictatorship to steal $7 billion in oil.  Or, the latest example, the attempt to install a new regime in Iran at an estimated cost of $3 trillion (so far) in world economic damage.  It is the same incentive structure.

So how do we deal with this?  Normally, for small crimes you just protect yourself.  You assume you will be robbed, you put a $100 lock on your door, and you spend a little bit of time every day (a cost) carrying keys, opening and closing, etc.  Society spreads out the cost.

For corruption or larger thievery, we have laws and a legal system.  It might be to put someone in jail overnight, or put them in prison for months or years.  Whatever moves the cost onto the one doing the damage.  Just to tip the cost back onto the thief.  Again, this enforcement costs society, but if it actually works as a deterrence, then it keeps the overall cost lower.

A war or civil war begins when there is no legal remedy for the costs that are being inflicted upon you.  And a society or part of society as a whole begins to use retribution to inflict costs on the thieves.  Thus during WWII both Japan and Germany had tremendous cost inflicted back upon them by those they tried to conquer.  The costs were so high all around that the world was willing to pay the cost of operating the UN for 80 years to try to prevent another world war.  This was the cost incentive system behind the ideas of Territorial Sovereignty between countries and Government by Consent of the Governed within countries.

Back to the household neighborhood level of the fractal structure:  Gasoline is just one valuable thing that can be stolen that is expensive to fix.  Aluminum and copper are also common metals that the Iran war has cut off from production.

Now is the time to start thinking about how to protect copper and aluminum AC units and heat pumps on the ground floor.  Aluminum storm doors.  Bikes and bike frames.

Now is the time to start paying attention to your home locks and discouragements.  Visible cameras around the house.  Etc.

As the economy tips into recession and energy becomes expensive, then metals will become expensive and the salvage economy will become even more active.  I had jumper cables and a jump start battery stolen.  There are piles of bikes near the homeless encampments being disassembled.  I would be angry, but what is the point when billions are being stolen and spent on rocket ships and met galas that could have been paid to feed those people?

We can expect this to really intensify after November when the Big Beautiful Bill implements its most draconian cuts to government services.  The number of homeless and hungry will take a huge jump.  And they will not be able to afford scruples over a few bucks worth of scrap.

Cuts to Blue cities and States will intensify to break those governments.  Again, this will shrink the overall economy but put cash into the hands of the dominant elite network.  Moving us closer and closer to the soon inevitable civil war, as oppression inevitably results in retribution.

The road ahead will become more broken, potholed, and eventually a lot of rubble and broken glass.  We cannot change the whole world.  The days of that hubris are passing.  Now is the time to fashion some shoes.  Mindfulness, community, some stocks of essentials.  A source of food.  The ability to cook and eat local grains and legumes as your main staples.  A backup plan for where you might live should your specific location, or the whole city, become a short or long term conflict zone.