One Strait: Two Scenarios
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Jon Freise
Apr 20, 2026, 12:00:35 PM (3 days ago) Apr 20
to Transition Twin Cities
The War on Iran continues to evolve on a day by day basis. Today, Monday April 20, 2026 may bring more peace talks or may bring more war. Trump likes drama so there is no way to know which will actually happen.
At the moment the Strait of Hormuz is being blockaded by both the Iranian armed forces and the US Navy. Iran opened it over the weekend, but Trump has demanded that Iran give up its nuclear weapon grade uranium, and refused to lift the US navy blockade so Iran has reinstalled its blockade.
Nothing will move through the Strait until Iran is allowed freedom of navigation.
There were two excellent Substack articles from Robert Pape and Paul Krugman that capture why the US is essentially stuck. It cannot win the war with Iran because it cannot open the Strait. Yet it cannot accept the result of letting Iran win the war.
It is so clear to Iran that it is winning this war that as of this morning Iran is not even sending negotiators to the latest round of peace talks. The US has sent a negotiations team. Europe is also clear that there is no military solution. Which means that to open the Strait to traffic, the world will need to offer Iran peace terms it is willing to accept. And that is victory for Iran.
April 2 (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday
it would be unrealistic to launch a military operation to force open the
Strait of Hormuz, after U.S. President Donald Trump challenged U.S.
allies to work towards reopening it.
Iran can get military and food supplies from Russia and Pakistan. The US cannot blockade Iran. Iran can keep building drones and dropping mines in the Strait. It only takes 1 hit to destroy an oil tanker worth $350 million dollars.
Dr. Pape outlines the two options for the US: Escalate the war (and lose later after a whole lot more damage has been done), or accept an Iran victory (and lose now).
Dr. Krugman outlines the economic damage that keeping the Strait closed is going to inflict on the world. This is the weapon Iran has to use to force others to restrain the US.
What this means is that eventually the rest of the world will force the US to give up the blockade. This will might look like is China, India and Pakistan (possibly Europe) sending frigates and destroyers to escort their own tankers past the US Navy.
They won't do it because they want to. They will do it because industries are collapsing from lack of fuel and feed stock.
So ask yourself this: How many months of other people's suffering will it take Donald Trump to admit defeat and retreat with a big L on his forehead? How many US service troops would need to have died? Does Trump admitting he lost seem likely to you? How did that go in 2020?
So what happens if he escalates the war? Goes through with his threats to hit Iran's power plants and the like? Iran has made it clear that their next step would be to destroy the oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf. They have said they will make sure there is nothing to export.
That would mean the oil shortages persist until the war has ended and the Gulf infrastructure is rebuilt. Years. Years without 20% of the world's oil supply. Year without the fertilizer. Years without the helium. Years without the industrial feed stocks. Years without the fuel.
Likely a global depression lasting years. Putting the world back in something like 1929.
A good moment for electric scooters, solar panels and permaculture food supplies!
Long term, after Iran wins, it will likely mean that a new more powerful nation rises in the Middle East and becomes wealthy and powerful using oil and petrochemicals as the basis of a rising industrial power.
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