Scenario Planning

[Jon Freise]

With the change in administration it is natural to contemplate the future.  One challenge with doing so is that our minds can get stuck in confirmation bias.  Meaning that once we form an initial thought about how things might unfold we start to look for evidence supporting that point of view.  Since that is the evidence we are looking for, we find it, and our conviction that is the one true future becomes stronger and stronger.  

This feature of our brains is very handy when you need a quick answer to an immediate problem, but it turns out to be a handicap for identifying the real truth.  Thus we can get stuck with ideas like the Sun goes around the Earth, even when contrary evidence shows up.  People also tend to adopt the religion of their parents, despite no supporting evidence, for similar reasons.  

Conspiracy theories are powered by this.  Casino's are funded by another human bias toward optimistic outcomes.  "Yes, everyone else loses money here, but I am above average."  Using biases against people can be very profitable.

Humans have developed many techniques for trying to find the actual truth despite this feature of our brains.  The scientific method requires testable criteria and multiple teams of people reproducing the same results.  Both of these work to control bias.

When considering the future, you cannot setup an experiment and then run it, and then go back, start all over and run it again.  If only it were so!

But one technique for reasoning into the unknown is scenario planning.  The idea is that you create the path you think things will go down and why.  But you also consider scenarios that result in better or worse outcomes.  You force yourself to adopt contrary positions to your own "bias".  Then you start to ask yourself what would be the leading indicators that this specific scenario is coming true?  That helps you look for those contrary bits of evidence that might be disproving your favored (but incorrect) position.

There are many possible futures for the US.  Victor Orban's Hungary is one.  Javier Milei's Argentina is another.  Project 2025 has detailed what the ultra conservative wing of the Republican party would like to make happen.  A rolled back New Deal and a return to a segregated South with voting rights effectively nullified to create a single party nation.  Or there could be a repeat of Trump's first term with a lot of noise, but mostly ineptitude, chaos and paralysis.

Some family, neighborhood, city and state efforts and policies will tend to work across all these situations.

The elimination of Social Security, for example, may mean finding living arrangements with family.

The elimination of regulation in the ag sector may mean even greater monopolies, higher prices for consumers and lower grain prices for farmers.  

History might also give some possible scenarios.  Looking at the Great Depression (prior to the New Deal) something like 40% of farmers had their farms foreclosed, while at the same time people were starving in the cities.  A similar result might happen if food stamps and farm supports are both cut.

Some kind of community supported small grain farming might be a win / win for consumers and farmers.

There are also positive scenarios possible.  A power grab by the Ultra Conservatives might actually scare the centrist elite into some substantial reforms.  The cooperative movement was a bottom up response to rising corporate power.  Something like that might happen again.  

Scenario Planning is one tool I am using to think about the next 4 years.  And it might be useful to you also.

Long term, I think cooperative decision making, work arrangements, cooperative ownership, etc, is the real solution.  As a society, our ideals are equality, but hierarchy is still the predominant form of organization.  I feel that is the change that needs to happen to move into an era of true democracy.  Our businesses are mostly organized along structures that are 200+ years old.  I think there is an opportunity for bringing them up to date with more democratic ideals.

Best wishes to everyone this New Year!  May you find some moments of joy!

-Jon

[Lee Samelson]

Hi Thanks Jon, I am interested in what we should share on this with Minneapolis Candidates running to represent us. These are elected officials who we will actually see in the community close by. I am looking to hold meetings with most everyone running. I am also looking to organize public Q & A forums and how to make them fun and engaging. I am concerned that I might have some blind spot as in not be prepared for certain scenarios.  
= Lee S. 

[Jon Freise]

Hi Lee,

This is a great community service that you provide.

I think the office of City Council and Mayor are going to become increasingly important as the Federal government becomes increasingly captured by special interests.  I would be curious what they think the likely outcomes are for the city for the Project 2025 agenda being implemented.  How such a financial change might impact economic outcomes for different neighborhoods?  What the effect might be on wages?  Rents?

Detroit is an interesting example because it has gone through both a peak in wealth and the demographic shift that are coming to the rest of the nation.  That peak in wealth has meant that infrastructure built during the peak cannot afford to be maintained post peak.  Whole parts of the city are rewilding.  It has also undergone a change in demography as the oppressed population from the south fled north and replaced the European immigrants who were the prior low wage workforce.  To break unionization, companies moved the factories overseas.  To break local minority political power, the red state legislature essentially voided the city charter and appointed emergency managers who superseded the mayor and city council.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/23/us/anger-in-michigan-over-appointing-emergency-managers.html

The US Bank Stadium was an example where the will of the Minneapolis voters was overturned for billionaire profit.  It would be easy to imagine a case where MAGA Federal officers provoked another round of riots (ex Portland) and a Greater Minnesota Republican Legislature appointed an emergency manager who replaced the Mayor and City Council in effective power.  Essentially voiding the franchise of blue voters.  There would still be elections, but they would elect people without power.

One idea would be a constitutional amendment protecting city charters.

I am guessing that most elected officials are still reeling from the November loss, and have no clue what nightmare scenarios (that have been prototyped elsewhere) are in the pipeline, much less what counter strategies might be employed.  Political paralysis for the next several years might be the most optimistic outcome.

In the meantime, for anyone who can, spend those IRA $ upgrading your home efficiency and solar before they get rescinded!

The blessing of unprecedented fossil fuel wealth is an inevitable decline.  Enjoy this moment of calm and stability.  A warm shower.  Hot food.  Many people do not have these blessings.

Happy New Year,

-Jon

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[Rebecca Cramer]

Hi Transition friends and thanks, Jon and Lee, for these thoughts. 

Relatedly......

If anyone has Thursday Jan 16th at 7pm free to join a zoom webinar, Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer will share some thoughts about how to approach defending social security and other entitlements going forward; MN state Senator Aric Putnam will moderate the discussion during Q &A. The registration for the zoom link is  https://bit.ly/4iO2VZn

Thanks, Rebecca

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[Jon Freise]

Hi Carolyn,

Thank you for bringing up this issue!  Trump is busy "flooding the media zone with shit" with all this talk about Canada, Greenland and LA.  Meanwhile, his party is taking key actions to consolidate power and disenfranchise voters.

Here is a good piece on what is happening in North Carolina.  This is no longer about Trump and his personal agenda.  After 8 years of rule and preparation powerful and talented people are moving on an agenda that has clearly been around since at least the New Deal.  Maybe the loss of the civil war.

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/january-12-2025?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-restack-comment&r=4hsz2&triedRedirect=true

But most Americans do not support this agenda.  They are the victims of multibillion dollar disinformation campaigns and a for profit news system!

One of the key pieces of system change to bring a stable democracy forward is to get a pro-democracy pro-truth news system into operation.  The Guardian US seems member supported.  Politico (but narrow focused).  MN Post for local news.  Do others have suggestions?

-Jon

On Mon, Jan 13, 2025 at 1:12 PM Carolyn Carr <caroly...@hotmail.com> wrote:

I really appreciate all of this exchange here, Jon and Lee. 

Helpful to me right now is to try to understand what's happening with state-level political power and to support local journalism that helps with that.  So here's a plug for MinnPost, and for this article about the power split in the MN legislature.  

https://www.minnpost.com/state-government/2025/01/minnesota-leads-again-no-other-state-has-ever-begun-a-legislative-session-without-clear-majorities-no-quorum/?utm_medium=email

How power is held in the MN legislature has major implications for our state's response to upcoming federal action. Be in touch with your State Rep and Senator with your concerns.  

---

From: transition-...@googlegroups.com <transition-...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Jon Freise <jon.e....@gmail.com>
Sent: Monday, January 13, 2025 12:55 PM
To: Lee Samelson <leesa...@gmail.com>
Cc: Transition Twin Cities <transition-...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [Transition TC] Re: Scenario Planning

 

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[Robert Young Walser]

On Jan 13, 2025, at 2:03 PM, Jon Freise <jon.e....@gmail.com> wrote:

But most Americans do not support this agenda.  They are the victims of multibillion dollar disinformation campaigns and a for profit news system!

Which, to my mind, makes the most important question “How do we deal with that?"

- -  -   -    -     -      -       -        -     

Bob Walser

seas...@spacestar.net

- -  -   -    -     -      -       -        - 

[Carolyn Carr]

I really appreciate all of this exchange here, Jon and Lee. 

Helpful to me right now is to try to understand what's happening with state-level political power and to support local journalism that helps with that.  So here's a plug for MinnPost, and for this article about the power split in the MN legislature.  

https://www.minnpost.com/state-government/2025/01/minnesota-leads-again-no-other-state-has-ever-begun-a-legislative-session-without-clear-majorities-no-quorum/?utm_medium=email

How power is held in the MN legislature has major implications for our state's response to upcoming federal action. Be in touch with your State Rep and Senator with your concerns.  

---

From: transition-...@googlegroups.com <transition-...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Jon Freise <jon.e....@gmail.com>
Sent: Monday, January 13, 2025 12:55 PM
To: Lee Samelson <leesa...@gmail.com>
Cc: Transition Twin Cities <transition-...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [Transition TC] Re: Scenario Planning

 

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/transition-twin-cities/CAJWW0RGTwpuEsmf-omBEjXTwt%2BZspcUL4EJExiCFxr5T4DV%2B2w%40mail.gmail.com.

[Dave Crawford]

Hi Folks,

I came across an interview in mid-December which I think bears attention.  On reading it I'm struck with the conclusion that the world is facing much bigger immediate problems than the current political/corporate takeover.  . . . That the world would still face these problems no matter what is attempted politically.  The MIT Press Reader published an interview with one of the authors of "A Darwinian Survival Guide", Daniel Brooks.  The interview, titled, "The Collapse Is Coming. Will Humanity Adapt?' and subtitled "An evolutionary biologist and a science fiction writer walk into a bar... and mull over survival." is at this link:

https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/the-collapse-is-coming-will-humanity-adapt/

The interview (and the book) have their basis in, among other things, studies and projections done by MIT and the University of Melbourne on the future of our current civilization.  We are likely looking at the collapse of civilization within the next 20 years.  The interview is striking in that it voices a perspective that working for political change in order to prevent collapse is futile, and that local action to mitigate the disaster is, essentially, a Darwinian/natural selection way of helping civilization produce adaptations which will allow a less devastating collapse and a more rapid stabilization into whatever grows out of the collapse.  It also suggests that acting sooner rather than later is important.

Because I was so impressed with the clarity of thought expressed in the interview (along with the resonance with Transition Town's emphasis on facilitating resilience), I'm now beginning to read A Darwinian Survival Guide.  I expect to have more to contribute to this discussion as I read further.

I'm encouraged to see the thoughts being expressed in this email thread - lots of attention to local actions.  Please read the interview and see what you think.

Dave Crawford

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[Curt McNamara]

Thanks Dave! Love books like that.

I found this summary of the major points:

https://online.ucpress.edu/gp/article/5/1/115331/200356/Surviving-the-Anthropocene-A-Darwinian-Guide

        Curt

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[Leslie MacKenzie]

Add Pro Publica to your list

[Demi Miller]

Dear Transition colleagues,

    Jon Freise has set the ball in motion regarding reigniting our Transition Town movement in the Twin Cities.  I'm hoping that we can do that ASAP.  Part of that work is something I was considering offering way back in 2009 - when we were working with the Permaculture group as well and did a big workshop at the Friends Meetinghouse on Grand Avenue.

    At that time I was interested in forming a Co-Listening support group - coming out of work that I have been doing for the last 50 years now - training people to do deep listening with one another to strengthen our emotional competency and empower ourselves to be courageous in the face of the kind of challenges we are now facing.

    Here's what I have been working on for the past two months.  (And I've been reaching out to a lot of my social, political, dance and Quaker networks - and getting favorable responses).  To get the ball rolling I'm calling this project "Digging Deep for Love, Hope & Joy".

    I've attached a couple of descriptive pieces to give you some idea of where I'm coming from.  But the best way to learn is to try it out. So I'm doing a 'double header' Introduction this Saturday the 25th at the Friends Meeting House 1725 Grand Ave, in St. Paul.  We'll start at 10 and go til 12:30 and take a lunch break. (Bring some potluck offering - or go out for lunch at one of the restaurants - there are four great ones within a block of the meetinghouse.) We'll resume at 2 and go til no later than 5.  You can come for just the morning or the afternoon or stay on through both;  there will be plenty to learn and good people to connect with. 

    If you have more questions contact me via email or text at 651-592-9122.Hope to hear from you soon.

  -in Love and Peace,
			-Demi Miller


"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, 
	and you are the easiest person to fool."
		     -Richard Feynman
	
"Whenever people say, 'We mustn't be sentimental,'
	- you can take it they are about to do something cruel. 
  And if they add, 'We must be realistic,' 
	- they mean they are going to make money out of it."
		--Brigid Brophy 

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage."
                            --Anais Nin

"It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men."
		-- Frederick Douglass 

"The life of the individual only has meaning in so far as it aids in
    making the life of every living thing nobler and more beautiful."
       		-- Albert Einstein


"We know how to transform this world to reduce our impact on nature by several fold,
 how to provide meaningful, dignified living-wage jobs for all who seek them,
 and how to feed, clothe, and house every person on earth.

 What we don't know is how to remove those in power, those whose ignorance of biology
 is matched only by their indifference to human suffering. This is a political issue. It is not an ecological problem."

		--Paul Hawken, from a speech at the Bioneers conference in Oct. 2002

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[Jon Freise]

Hi Everyone,

I wanted to repost this message from Demi with a new subject line so no one misses it.

[Jon Freise]

It has been about 2 months and some things are getting much clearer.  I wanted to revisit this concept of scenario planning and share how I am trying to use it.

First, why do scenario planning?  First, it is to try to avoid bias.  (I talk about that in the first post).  But also because this is part of the Observe, Orient, Decide, Act decision loop.  (OODA).  Scenario planning is an effort to Orient and make sense of the stream of data arriving.  Often a confusing stream of data!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OODA_loop

It takes the mind (and groups) time to make sense of what is happening and then form a decision about what action to take. Often events will unfold much faster than this sense making can happen.  Scenario planning is often used to create contingency plans by reasoning out the implications.  Prepping by purchasing food ahead of time is an example of a contingency plan that is broadly applicable across many different scenarios.  And you have to do it ahead of time because once the event (say a supply chain shortage, or bank failure) happens, the store shelves are already bare.

When I first wrote this post Trump had not yet been sworn in.  The range of possible futures was very broad.  I think it has narrowed.  There is clearly a coup underway.  The executive branch has seized the power of congress.  And worse, congress has not opposed it to any degree I have been able to observe.  All but 1 of the executives cabinet picks have been approved.  And Elon Musk has taken upon himself the power of all cabinet level officers, but without any appointment process at all.  Which is clearly illegal.  The judicial branch has not been able to check the executive branches power (we will likely see a final test of this provoked by the illegal deportations).  

But as it stands right now we are in the worst case position imagined by our founding fathers:  An unchecked Tyrant has seized the executive.  I think the Democrats paralysis is that they are still telling themselves that the old government still exists and there will be elections in 2 years.  They are still playing the game the way it has been played for 250 years.  They cannot make sense of what just happened.  Chuck Schumer is on a book tour!  Is that the actions of someone who is fighting a coup?  No.

Ok, well, how does it play out from here?

Scenario planning often involves trying to come up with 3 or 4 different scenarios about the future that represent a broad range of likely paths forward.  Planners try to be broad enough that it forces you to think through scenarios that are in opposition with one another (to avoid confirmation bias) but not so broad as to be paralyzing (aliens arrive and they set the world to right, nuclear war, etc).

I want at least one scenario where the current administration is blocked (not because I think that is likely but specifically to force myself to look for evidence that is happening).  I will call this one the Check and Balance Scenario.

Another where it implements most of its stated agenda domestically.  I will call this one: Heritage Scenario (after Project 2025, but I don't want to reuse that name and cause confusion).

And then a worst case scenario where power is consolidated in the US and the whole economic and military might is used to aggressively expand against former allies.  I will call this one: The Empire Scenario.

Then typically you try to imagine some early indicators that we are moving toward one path or another.

For example: If Congress had blocked Trump's appointments and put in an FBI director who was loyal to the US and not to Trump personally, I would have seen that as a sign the Check and Balance scenario was coming true.  If some Republicans defend the congress's power of the purse, that would have been a check.  If Musk was blocked until he had been appointed to a specific cabinet post, that would have been a sign.

The Check and Balance scenario is still possible. One ending would be Trump's impeachment. That would require enough Republicans to cross over and vote with the Democrats.  Not a whole lot of them actually.  It did not happen after January 6th, so I see it as unlikely no matter what he does.  But even staunch conservatives support the rule of law, so I keep it open as something I am looking for evidence to support.

The Heritage Scenario implements Project 2025.  The New Deal is rolled back.  All social support is dismantled.  Corporations are given free reign to exploit all commons.  Monopolys flourish.  Toxins are released freely.  Voting is restricted to those who "vote for the right people" and there is never a free or fair election again.  The media is taken over and the worst atrocities are never reported or discussed.  Orban's Hungary moving toward Putin's Russia.  But with a unique US Confederacy and Jim Crow aspect.

You can read a historical example of how this plays out at the state level (racial violence trigger warning)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilmington_massacre

This time the Federal troops will be complicit in the take over of state governments.

As bad as that might be, Nazi's were worse.  Not only did they commit genocide against their own people, they tried to enslave other nations around them (under the guise of Liberation, of course). 

The Empire Scenario contemplates what it might be like if the US took that path forward.  Once power was consolidated and the states were all captured.  The US started to acquire territory.  I was contemplating this scenario before Trump started to talk about Canada and Greenland.  Canada for Oil Sands and Uranium.  Brazil for Iron and Agriculture.  Chili for copper.  Venezuela for Heavy Oil.  The UK as an "unsinkable air craft carrier".  Nigeria for its oil.  Mexico's off shore oil.

All those newly poor people created by the economic system being skewed to benefit the 1%?  They are all conscripted into the military at pennies per day and sent overseas to secure the Empire.

In this case, fleeing the US to Canada is not much help.  Actually, I doubt fleeing anywhere would be much help.  What country is going to endure a 200% tariff if Trump demands all US citizens be handed back?  Who would have loyalty to US citizens?  I doubt anyone.  To effectively flee you would need some way to drop into hiding with the local population.

This last scenario is gaining more support than I expected 2 months ago.  Trump had always acted as an isolationist.  But now his actions have global ambitions.  I think that is the Silicon Valley influence.  But a post for another day.

One last thought:

All massive changes to the energy system cause huge social and cultural changes.  And those can take decades to work themselves out.  Europe was mostly solar powered farms and woodlands (and the landed aristocracy that controlled them) in 1700.  But by 1900 the energy system was dominated by coal.  And many of those monarchies had gone through civil war and been replaced by Republics where merchants and industrialists ruled.  WWI pretty well finished off that transition.  That took 200 years.

Like it or not, our fossil fuel society is going to transition to some kind of solar energy.  Those in the fossil fuel industry are fighting it (and make up a key part of the coalition overthrowing our democracy).  Aristocratic France went through 120 years of civil and external war on its way to a fossil fuel powered Republic.  It took three republics and three imperial empires, fighting three continental wars.  As messy and unpleasant as this fight is likely to get, it might just be the way human society responds to changes in energy systems.  And the key is to keep alive the ideals that are needed for a human society to flourish long term.  (more on that later also).

Spring is coming.  It is part of an energy cycle far bigger than any human society and totally out of our control.  This political chaos might be part of a similar energy transition, but from fossil to solar.  And it may not be controllable by human society.  It might be something that has to be lived through.  Something that must be accepted, with opportunity for change only around the edges.

Enjoy the Spring weather!

-Jon

Gaia, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.

[Curt McNamara]

Nice! I will modify your heritage one a little:

The Heritage Scenario implements Project 2025.  The New Deal is rolled back.  Most federal social support is dismantled and left to the states. Corporations are given free reign to exploit all commons.  Monopolys flourish.  Toxins are released freely.

There is a market crash and recession provoked by the administration. 

Voting is permitted however the results are rigged. there is never a free or fair election again in the short term  

The mainstream media is already complicit in this, and the basic facts are never reported or discussed.  

Widespread surveillance and harassment by the FBI has eliminated the public work of environmental and social justice organizations.

There is an attempt to convert the economy to cryptocurrency.

The administration will attempt to use Federal troops to take over liberal state governments.

Cutting edge science and pharma moves overseas. 

Vance becomes president and runs in 2028.

By the early 2030s there is a somewhat stable government again.

Perhaps the fifth scenario is where some of the states rise to the occasion?

      Curt

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[Jon Freise]

Hi Curt, Everyone,

Thank you for this response.  These are good extensions.  Please, all of you, keep adding detail and additional scenarios.  These give us some additional 'flags' to indicate which direction we are traveling.

Which brings up an important point about scenario planning: The goal is not to predict the future exactly.  Chaos theory argues you cannot do that.  But instead try to map out major branches the future could take.  Often the future can end up some crazy mix of scenarios you never thought was possible.  Also, because branching points pass in time, scenarios need to be updated at some frequency because it becomes clear you are heading down one path or another.

What I have seen in the last roughly 2 weeks is that major universities and law firms have folded to the Trump administration threats.  They did not resist.  If we adopt the sociologist Dumhoff's view then the ruling class of the US is mostly a plutocracy made up of large investment funds, corporate law firms, private universities (for training the ruling class), and the largest corporations.  And so far these seem to have rolled over and played dead.  The government representatives work for the ruling class.  (That is one reason they have stopped meeting with their "voters" is that they don't actually represent those voters. They represent their funders.

https://www.ted.com/talks/lawrence_lessig_we_the_people_and_the_republic_we_must_reclaim/transcript

It is still early to rule out the Check and Balance scenario.  But right now, the "official" checks and balances have been defeated.  And unofficial checks from the ruling class do not appear to be restraining the administration either.  I am not surprised by either.  The Confederates captured the Republican party and purged out the moderates.  I would argue that it was Mitch McConnell voting to not impeach Trump after January 6th that marked the historical end of the US Constitutional government.  At that moment he put party loyalty over democracy.  In our two party system he essentially declared an end to the Republican's supporting a lawful democratic government.

That the ruling class is not pushing back is not surprising.  They see deregulation (protection of the commons) and monopoly power as a way to squeeze even more money out of the population.  For them the Titanic sinking isn't really an issue.  What they want to make sure happens is they have a seat in a lifeboat.  Preserving wealth while not getting tossed in prison is the easy way forward for them.

The non-violent protesters are discussing general strikes.  Those are the last kinds of unofficial checks and balances remaining.  Hard to say if any of that will manifest before power is consolidated.  I am guessing not.  More likely we are going down the path of the two other scenarios.  Both seem wide open to me.  Power consolidation continues.  And voting rights are ending, etc.  

The Heritage scenario now seems inevitable.  But will it turn into world wide military expansion?  It is difficult to sort Trump's bluster about Canada and Greenland from action at this point.  The Canadian's and European's are taking the US Empire scenario very seriously.  They are rearming.  They are negotiating new nuclear arms deals.  They are switching weapons orders from the US suppliers to other European nations.  The Polish called up their reserves.

Macron's address to the French people:

https://www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-macron/2025/03/05/address-to-the-french-people

There will be international check and balances.  That is what Macron is saying.  That is what the Canadian's are saying. 

Scenario planning is good for exploring futures where you cannot quantify the underlying mechanisms.  And that is especially true when others are free to take action.  Water runs down hill and we can predict river formation.  A chess game is totally different.  We know the rules by which every piece moves, yet cannot predict the outcome of a game.

Next post I want to explore some of the "game players" who I think make up the coalition who have seized power and why.  I think it is helpful in seeing we are unlikely to return to "normal" past. 

-Jon