- The path from Neoliberalism to Populism - 1 Update
Jon Freise <jon.e....@gmail.com>: Feb 20 12:24PM -0600
Why worry about how we got here when the plane is upside down and on fire?
Shouldn't I be focusing on figuring out how to get the emergency doors
open? Yes, and no. I don't think Trump and Musk are the source of the
problem, I think they are a symptom. And that if they were removed, we
would very quickly have another pair. There are much larger forces that
have created this crisis and if we don't figure out what they are we are as
likely to make things worse as better.
I have found some very helpful academic perspectives on how neoliberalism
(policies that move wealth upward) lead to our current crisis:
Resilience had this very good post:
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2025-02-18/the-steps-to-an-american-oligarchy/
I followed some of its links back and thought these two articles both very
good:
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/after-neoliberalism-dynamics-of.html
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2021/04/why-neoliberalisms-evolution-into.html
It is especially helpful to see an explanation of how Trump could steal the
Republican base out from under the establishment and then implement anti
neoliberal policies like Tariffs (cheap overseas labor) and blocking
Immigration (cheap domestic labor). (That the Democrats are fighting both
policies shows just how far from a pro-labor party it has become. There
are only pro capital mainstream parties in the US.)
The challenge for the right wing parties, and the US as a whole, is that
the only way down is actually through policies that spread the wealth. And
the right cannot vote through those policies. So they cannot resolve the
underlying problem.
This is why monarchies would go through periodic state crisis and civil
war. They have to vote against their own interests to spread the wealth to
others. Trump and Musk are not up to that task. I would not expect high
deportation rates. Or actual tariffs that impact Tesla, etc. But I would
expect cuts to any benefits to the lower and middle class. Thus
accelerating the decline of the nations productivity.
-Jon
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- Paul Krugman and Phillips O'Brien - 1 Update
Jon Freise <jon.e....@gmail.com>: Feb 28 07:21PM -0600
I enjoyed following the economist Paul Krugman at the NY Times. He left
when Trump won the election and started a substack. In this post he
discusses Trump's proposal for Ukraine and then there is a link to an
excellent discussion he has with a historian and strategic studies
professor Phillips O'Brien.
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-belgian-congo-plan-for-ukraine
In the beginning they talk about the changing nature of drone warfare. In
the middle is a discussion of the US economy and the likely impacts of
tariffs and federal spending cuts. At the end is a discussion about how
essential it is to defeat authoritarianism in the US and how unsafe
everyone feels.
Very wise and informed people feel the stress. These are not normal
times. Be gentle with yourselves.
-Jon
- Zelenskyy in Herod's Court - 1 Update
Jon Freise <jon.e....@gmail.com>: Mar 04 12:13PM -0600
Zelenskyy walked into the Oval Office with the dignity of Jesus entering
the court of Herod. Surrounded by the gilt and finery of the court,
Zelenskyy was mocked for his impoverished dress. Hardly fitting that of a
“king”. Scribes and courtiers lined up. Pens and paper ready for the
signing of the surrender of most of Ukraine to Russia, and the remaining
bits to be given to the US. A 1939 Poland like partition.
Trump clearly hoped to achieve by ambush and betrayal the outcome that
Russia had tried and failed to achieve through 3 years of bloody and
destructive war. Did he think the shock of his betrayal would be a knife
going into Zelenskyy’s back? Crumple and destroy a leader who had suffered
three years of bombardment from real missiles, bombs and artillery shells? It
did not. Zelenskyy, in an impossible position, refused to surrender.
JD Vance, ever the worm tongue, counseled despair: You cannot recruit
enough soldiers, you are losing.
“You are not ready for peace” says Trump. What he meant is that Zelenskyy
and the Ukrainian people are not ready to give in.
Of course, Putin could end the war at any moment. He need only withdraw
his invading troops from Ukraine. Need only stop the rain of drones,
missiles, glide bombs and artillery shells that fall hourly on the
Ukrainians.
But Trump did not ask that of Putin. Instead, he asked Zelenskyy to
capitulate.
Oh, some have said, “Ukraine provoked Russia”. How? By the Ukrainian’s
demanding a say in their own government? By demanding their leader not be
a Russian puppet? By demanding the right to defend themselves from outside
attack? Yes, the old “Blame the Victim” argument. Putin, with his
thousands of nuclear weapons, was afraid. Poor, poor, terrified fellow!
How unfair! And so several hundred thousand in Ukraine must die and the
rest lose their freedom for the crime of making Russia “afraid”? The logic
of abuse laid clear as day.
Zelenskyy walked out. No surrender signed. If they had put a crown of
thorns on his head and wrapped him in an ermine gown it could not have been
clearer who was the Jesus figure and who was playing King Herod. I guess
all those days in Sunday school taught me something.
So why this show?
Trump has a problem. His base includes some that are very pro democracy
(even if they limit who can be included). He has put himself forward as
the pro democracy candidate. And yet he owes Putin for help in the
election. And to pay back Putin for his aid, he needs to force Ukraine
into surrender by withholding any further US aid. But that would not look
good to his base. Trump needed to create some theatre where he could
insinuate that Ukraine had done something wrong. And thus Trump is in the
“right” for pulling US support for Ukraine. Thus I think he staged this
ambush of Zelenskyy in front of the media. He had other New Confederates,
like Sen. Lindsey Graham, lined up to echo his talking points that the US
had been “disrespected” and Zelenskyy should be removed. Trump needs to
turn his constituency against Ukraine.
Notice that Trump has turned his ire on our allies. Those closest to
us. Those
who have been most trusting. Our longest and most valued partners. The
New Confederates (Christian white nationalists) see everyone else as
“outside” the Tribe. Only the Tribe matters.
https://www.ted.com/talks/jonathan_haidt_the_moral_roots_of_liberals_and_conservatives
Psychologist Jonathan Haidt describes this very well in his 2008 TED talk.
These "allies" are now just the weak, ready to be exploited.
I turn over in my head: how do we stop him? How do we get back our
democracy before there is nothing left but ashes?
Trump is seizing economic, administrative and military power in the US. Soon
there will only be the ideological power left. But ideas move minds, and
minds move people.
Making transparent to everyone what he is doing and why he is doing it
reveals the puppet strings he is using. The more everyone can see the
puppet strings, the more they will untie them and defect. Trump’s
constituency voted against their own interests and in the interests of
Trump and Musk. The degree to which the disinformation campaign can
convince people Trump has their interest, is the degree to which he can
take power.
Humans understand things via story. Christian’s feel they have elected a
savoir, but instead they raised up a selfish and greedy king. Once they
can start to see Trump through the lens of a self serving king, he will not
be able to hide his true self.