UK Omicron modelling and projections
5 views
Skip to first unread message
Jon Freise
Dec 11, 2021, 8:56:31 AM12/11/21
to Transition Twin Cities
For those into computer modeling there is a new preliminary report out from the
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine on the potential impact of Omicron in the UK based on what has been learned about it so far.
The short answer is that in the most optimistic scenario: if Omicron has lower immune escape and the booster campaign is successful, then with mild lockdown measures the winter hospital surge will be less than last year. The most pessimistic scenario of high immune escape requires strong lock down measures to happen again to prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed.
All scenarios result in a surge of infections, but the vaccine lowers hospitalizations to a controlled level. For here in the US we would need models that contrasted highly vaccinated vs unvaccinated areas. And I think there will be very limited ability to introduce lockdowns.
Hopefully things will turn out on the more positive side of these assumptions. These are very early days and there is a lot we do not know. More effective treatments are being released. Testing is getting better and better.
-Jon
Here are a couple of news stories that summarize the results:
Here is the report itself:
gregrwm
Dec 11, 2021, 9:10:39 PM12/11/21
to Transition Twin Cities
thanks again jon.
this video makes the point that lacking a carbon tax is already killing more than covid, oh and, restraining our economy. what's your take on it?
greg
Jon Freise
Dec 18, 2021, 2:44:28 PM12/18/21
to gregrwm, Transition Twin Cities
Hi Greg, Everyone,
Thanks for the video. I agree with most of the points (which are making a counter argument to the movie "Planet of the Humans" which I have not seen).
It does take fossil fuels to make renewable energy. However, the Energy Returned on Energy Invested of renewables has greatly increased as the technology has improved dramatically. And as the industrial base goes carbon free, it will only get better.
One key point was the need to stop subsidizing fossil fuels. I love the UN dinosaur video from the last COP arguing for halting all fossil fuel subsidies.
Another key point was the number of people who die from air pollution every year is greater than those who have died from Covid (at the time of the video). And that is tragic.
For all of human history cities have been noisy, smelly, polluted places. I think we now have the technology to create something that has never existed before: An all electric city. A low pollution city. A city with clean water AND clean air. A city where illness and death are not much, much higher than the surrounding country side.
In the beginning cities had to be tight packed because walking was the only transport option. Then we had coal powered street cars, then gas cars. Now I can imagine a mid to low density city with a lot of green space where people get most needs in a 15 min travel distance. And they mostly walk, but also have bikes, electric scooters of all kinds, electric wheel chairs, electric buses and electric cars.
I really like this idea of the 15 min city:
And I have long thought that urban planning changes were the key to long term climate change mitigation. Once people can get most needs met in a short distance with clean energy, many issues are resolved. Couple that with agriculture and industries providing goods made out of the local bioregion and we begin down the path to sustainability. Once most things are made locally, they can be repaired, reused, recycled.
Dreaming of Positive Futures!
-Jon
--
--
For upcoming events and resources for communities building resiliency in the face of peak oil and climate change, please visit http://www.transitiontc.org.
To suggest an event for the Transition Twin Cities calendar, please see this page: http://www.transitiontc.org/calendars/suggestevent.
Options for this list can be found at (gmail accounts only):
http://groups.google.com/group/transition-twin-cities?hl=en?hl=en
Instructions for subscribing or unsubscribing (all email accounts):
http://groups.google.com/support/bin/topic.py?hl=en&topic=9244
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Transition Twin Cities" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to transition-twin-c...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/transition-twin-cities/0722fd1b-a524-40a2-8cd6-5a61d45eb26bn%40googlegroups.com.
Reply all
Reply to author
Forward
0 new messages