Gasoline goes below $4.00, Iran War & Oil, June 9, 2026

[Jon Freise]

I wanted to pull together a couple of sources I am reading about the current Iran crisis

MPR is tracking the average MN price of gasoline.  We are being buffered by supply coming down from the Canadian tar sands and fracked oil from the Bakken.

https://www.mprnews.org/business/money

Other nations are having a much more difficult time.  But we don't hear about those much.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2026-06-08/war-in-the-middle-east-made-the-case-for-renewables-whats-happening-in-each-country-tells-a-harder-story/

The US is drawing down its inventories to very low levels.  Once those stocks run out prices will explode out of control upwards to cut demand.  Even peace today cannot restart the flow of oil fast enough.

https://www.commoditycontext.com/

The negotiations are going nowhere, and that is unlikely to change.  Both Israel and Iran want this war to continue.  Economic sanctions do not topple or deter dictatorships so the US blockade is useless.  Why the US is likely to continue to pursue strategies that are known to fail  is explained in Dr. Pape's substack.  Don't expect oil to flow anytime soon.

https://escalationtrap.substack.com/

Iran is actually widening the war.  They are demanding protection forHezbollah and are pulling the Houthi into the conflict.

In this episode of What's Going on With Shipping?, Sal Mercogliano analyzes the recent announcement from the Houthi forces declaring a complete blockade against Israeli-owned and Israeli-flagged vessels.

We dive into the data to see what’s actually happening on the water right now, the history of these attacks since November 2023, and the massive impact this could have on global trade. With 15% of global shipping passing through the "BAM" and 11% through the Strait of Hormuz, a "triple shutdown" (including the Suez Canal) would be a nightmare scenario for global supply chains.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8M3QHjXk-04

Nate Hagens is doing a very good job creating tools to thinking about and acting on this time period.  He is taking a page from permaculturalist David Holmgren.  (who I also recommend)

https://natehagens.substack.com/p/essay-how-to-think-about-the-future-92e

From a combined climate and oil shock perspective: The US just had one of the worst winter wheat harvests  in decades due to widespread drought.  Stocks are dropping and prices are up.  (The loss of ground water supplies is also rendering more and more land area unusable.  This is another form of resource depletion.)

https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/wheat/market-outlook

As fertilizer supply stays constrained, crop yields may fall world wide.  That could tip us into another Arab Spring series of revolutions like we saw in 2011.

https://www.npr.org/2011/02/18/133852810/the-impact-of-rising-food-prices-on-arab-unrest

Again, peak oil is not about running out.  It is about constrained supply unable to grow with demand.  And a rising price for the supply that does exist.  In this constrained environment supply shocks that once could have been smoothed over cannot be handled without dramatic increases in price.  On the other hand, if you have enough money there will be fuel.  And there will be oil based bike tires, foam insulation, etc.  These things will not be going away.  They will get more expensive.  Inflation is how both peak oil, climate change, overpopulation, biosphere depletion will announce themselves.

The Republican's passed another $70 billion for their private army.  So the response to this is not rationing, social safety nets, public transit, electrification.  No, it is increased oppression in preparation for US citizen anger over the coming high prices.

We left the "normal" economy back in 2008.  By taking on huge debt, the US has kept things in the "new normal" category for almost 20 years.  That is very likely to fracture this year.

Dust off your copy of the Transition Handbook.  A lot has changed in 20 years and yet a lot is basically unchanged.