Scenarios

[Jon Freise]

Here are a few useful links for understanding and coping with this time:

Fascism 101: Breaking Power Projection

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaH_uM01ImI&t=2s

Letter from German Grannies against Fascism

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-Z6M-LDXWg

I laid out three scenarios.  

If we track our current progress then we can ask if the first scenario of Check and Balance is happening.  It is clear the Republican congress and supreme court are substantially captured and not blocking this takeover.  Even totally illegal actions like the Tariffs or a threatened invasion of Greenland have not really brought forward almost any public criticism blocking action.   The right wing media remains supportive.  And more of the media is captured every passing day.  The election in November is a possible check, but the administration is making moves to take over that election so they can choose the result.  If that happens to the election, then Check and Balance probably becomes a zero chance and would need to be replaced with a different scenario.

The second Jim Crow scenario is clearly underway.  KKK style operations are happening in the streets and are unblocked by local law enforcement.  People are killed by masked paramilitary militia and allowed to run away with no attempt to capture them by other law enforcement.  Despite knowing exactly where they originate from and where they are staying.  Immigration laws are being proposed that would create another worker slave class that has no rights and no real ability to become US citizens.  The budget for internal oppression has dramatically increased.  It is now larger than all other law enforcement.  And it is larger than most nations budgets for external defense.

The third fascist imperial power scenario was put forward because MAGA was opposed to foreign wars.  But that has been tossed out the window.  The administration has tightened up the leadership team.  People like Margorie Taylor Green were ejected and threatened with death.  The administration has directly threatened US allies.  And taken military action against other nations.  It has increased the defense department budget.  This imperial power scenario has a very, very real chance of happening.  Thus the links at the top.  Others outside the US see the same thing.  All the European leaders at the Davos talks discussed this as a very real danger.  Mark Carney was especially blunt.  It is worth hearing his whole talk.

Again, the choices come down to Fight, Flee, or Freeze (hide).  That choice is yours.

In all scenarios, the US will become poorer and international goods will become more expensive.  Funding is being cut for things like local water systems, snow removal, etc.  Medical care.  That will continue no matter what.  Things like water filters, air filters, electronics replacement parts, (such as inverters for solar systems) might be good to purchase while they are still available.  The dollar is falling, and thus imports (like electronics, oil) are becoming more expensive.

Again, I recommend the book "The Changing World Order" by Ray Dalio.  Not because that is a perfect forecast of what is likely to happen, but it is a description of what happened the last two times a leading world power fell.  One total collapse. One gentle.  However no prior transition happened while the world was dealing with natural resource depletion and climate change.

The Limits to Growth essentially says that the future will eventually have enough inflation that it will end growth as we understand it.  Inflation because natural resources become more expensive to extract as we use up the cheap stuff.  And inflation because pollution causes damage that it costs to repair.  Drought or flooding causes crop failure.  Eventually food shortages will stop population growth.  Fires, floods, sea level rise and hurricanes destroy homes, buildings, factories.  That increases the price of the remaining buildings and drives up the cost of insurance.  Eventually buildings will be destroyed faster than we can afford to build new ones.  The EPA has now deregulated several cancer causing chemicals and pesticides.  The cancer rates will begin to rise again.  Thus higher medical bills and higher medical insurance costs.

There are a lot of positive things to do no matter what happens.  And no matter what happens humans will keep adapting and migrating.  An interesting take on the far future is the speculative fiction "Always Coming Home" by Ursula K. Le Guin.  It is a hopeful post climate disaster, post AI disaster Earth where people live pretty happy lives with far less industrialization.