climate change FAQ to help answer climate change skeptics by Dr Brett Parris, is Chief Economist, World Vision Aust [easternSuburbsPermaculture]

[Adam Tiller]

To: permac...@betweenskyandearth.com.au,
      easternsuburb...@yahoogroups.com
From: David Coote <dcc...@mira.net>
Date: Wed, 23 Sep 2009 10:05:01 +1000
Subject: [easternsuburbspermaculture] Very useful FAQ to help answer climate change skeptics

Dear all,

This is a very useful FAQ to help answer climate change skeptics. (dated 18Sept09)
The author, Dr Brett Parris, is Chief Economist, World Vision Australia & Research Fellow, Monash University.
He spoke to ESPG (Eastern Suburbs Permaculture Group) about climate change issues last year.

Regards

David

http://www.climateworksaustralia.com/Q_and_A.pdf (69 pages, 1.7MB)

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http://www.climateworksaustralia.com/Q_and_A.pdf (69 pages, 1.7MB)

--- First three pages of document ---
Responses to Questions & Objections
on Climate Change

Dr Brett Parris
Chief Economist, World Vision Australia
&
Research Fellow, Monash University

18 September 2009


Contents

Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 2

1. The IPCC is a political body and its reports are scientifically unreliable. .............................. 3

2. Science is not about consensus – Galileo was ridiculed by the authorities and the scientific establishment................................................................................................................................. 5

3. There’s no consensus - 31,000 scientists signed a petition denying the link between greenhouse gas emissions and climate change ............................................................................. 6

4. We should wait until there is more evidence before reducing greenhouse gas emissions. ... 8

5. Climate change has been happening throughout geological and human history. What is happening now is not outside the bounds of natural climatic variability. ................................... 9

6. Because what is happening now is within the realms of natural variability, we can’t say that humans are contributing to climate change. ........................................................................ 11

7. Because what is happening now is within the realms of natural variability, it is not something to worry about. Species have always adapted. ......................................................... 13

8. It was warmer during medieval times. .................................................................................... 13

9. Climate models are unreliable. ................................................................................................ 15

10. There was a consensus among climate scientists in the 1970s that we would soon be heading into another ice age......................................................................................................... 16

11 Global warming ended around 1998 anyway – it’s been cooling since then. ..................... 16

12. Our best strategy is simply to adapt to climate change. ....................................................... 20

13. CO2 exists only in very low concentrations in the atmosphere, therefore it cannot have significant effects. ......................................................................................................................... 21

14. CO2 is a weak greenhouse gas. Doubling of CO2 from its pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm to 560 ppm would only bring warming of about 1ºC......................................................... 23

15. CO2 is not a pollutant – it is completely natural and essential for life. ............................... 25

16. Any warming is the Sun’s fault. ............................................................................................ 25

17. Climate change is due to the effects of cosmic rays. ........................................................... 27

18. Lack of warming in the tropical troposphere (lower atmosphere) proves anthropogenic global warming is a myth. ............................................................................................................ 29

19. Coming out of the ice ages, the changes in CO2 happened after the warming began, so CO2 doesn’t affect atmospheric temperatures............................................................................. 29

20. Antarctica is cooling, so that proves the global climate isn’t warming. ............................. 30

21. Action on climate change would ruin our economies. ......................................................... 31

Conclusions ................................................................................................................................. 41

Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................ 46

Author Note................................................................................................................................. 46

References ................................................................................................................................... 46

Useful Resources .......................................................................................................................... 67 2

Introduction

This paper grew out of my work at both Monash University and at World Vision, where I focus on the current impacts and future projections of climate change in developing countries. Some may be interested to know why an international development agency like World Vision would be taking the science of climate change so seriously. The reason is that climate change is already impacting poor communities around the world and the projections of future impacts if we do not act to rein in emissions are nothing short of horrific – a word I do not use lightly.

For the poor and for today’s children who will inherit our legacy, these are not abstract debates. They are not opportunities for political point scoring, or for fighting left-right culture wars. The science of climate change matters and it deserves to be taken seriously.

When the British economist John Maynard Keynes was derided for changing his position on economic policy he replied: “When the facts change, I change my position. What do you do, sir?” Keynes’ response reflects the open-minded attitude of a genuine inquirer, a true skeptic, willing to change his mind when new information emerges, or when the weight of evidence, the balance of probabilities and the risks and consequences of being wrong become overwhelming.

Not everyone approaches the issue of climate change in this open-minded way. Some come to the science through the lenses of political ideologies or economic interests, maintaining positions dogmatically in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, and endlessly recycling views that have been repeatedly debunked by scientists. We have seen this approach before with those who continue to deny the moon landings, the link between HIV and AIDS and the link between smoking and cancer.1 Some continue to try to convince the public and governments that there is a raging debate among scientists about the main drivers of climate change. There isn’t. As Nicholas Stern, author of The Stern Review on the climate change for the British Government2 , wrote recently:

1 This is not an idle comparison. See for example the Union of Concerned Scientists’ (2007) documentation of how one oil company’s tactics were virtually identical to those of the tobacco lobby.

The argument for inaction, or for weak or delayed action, would make sense on the basis of reservations about the science only if one could assert that we know for certain that the risks are small. In the face of the evidence we now have, that is a complacent, ignorant and dangerous position to take. It is not healthy skepticism or an openness of mind; it is a denial of evidence and reason.3

This document discusses some of that evidence and responds to some of the most common objections. It is not intended to be comprehensive and the interested reader is referred to the reference list and the ‘Useful Resources’ section at the end for more comprehensive websites and other materials. Please send any constructive comments or suggestions for improvements to: Brett....@buseco.monash.edu.au

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