http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=55943
Bike vs Car on a Hot Planet
By Stephen Leahy
BERLIN, Jun 6, 2011 (IPS) - As global carbon emissions hit record-high
levels last year, officials from leading Asian nations told the 2011
International Transport Forum in nearby Leipzig that their citizens
want more cars.
At the same meeting, some Europeans urged a 21st century renaissance
in bicycle transport, with electric and electric-assist bikes for
personal health and the health of the climate.
"We in India need to provide more roads and rail," said B.K.
Chaturvedi, a member of India's Planning Commission.
"Cycling is a miniscule thing. That's not the future,"
Chaturvedi told the nearly 800 attendees.
"The bike is better to get around in Beijing, but bicycle use is
dropping fast due to poor air quality and the danger from car
traffic," said Pan Haixiao, a professor at Tongji University in
China.
The number of cars and light trucks globally is projected to triple
from the current 850 million to 2.5 billion by 2050, according to the
International Transport Forum's (ITF) Transport Outlook 2011. That
growth is projected to be almost entirely in the developing world.
Richer countries are actually reducing the personal vehicle use in the
last few years.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development's ITF is an
intergovernmental organisation for the transport sector involving 52
different nations.
Transport is the second leading source of carbon dioxide emissions,
contributing about 7.5 gigatonnes to the 30.6 gigatonnes (Gt) emitted
in total in 2010. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported last
week that humanity cannot exceed annual emissions of 32.0 Gt or it
will be impossible to achieve the internationally-agreed target of
below two degrees C of global warming to avoid very dangerous levels
of global warming.
IEA acknowledges that 32.0 Gt could be reached by the end of this
year.
Even with significant improvements in fuel efficiency and wider use of
electric vehicles, the ITF report projects that carbon emissions from
the transport sector will likely grow 250 percent by 2050. That would
amount to roughly 19 Gt annually from transport alone.
Scientists warn that to have a 50-50 chance of staying below two
degrees C, carbon emission growth must flatline by 2015 at the latest
and start to decline by three percent per year. Carbon dioxide stays
in the atmosphere for a long time - emissions from the 19th century
are still contributing their small share to current and future
warming.
Scientists also caution that there are feedbacks in the climate
system, such as the potential for large releases of carbon from
melting permafrost, that have not been included in their
estimations.
Bicycles, and particularly electric-assist bikes, offer an important,
practical solution for mobility and significant carbon emissions
reductions, Manfred Neun, president of European Cyclists' Federation,
told the conference.
The advent of lithium batteries with improved capacity-to-weight
ratios now means electric bikes or e-bikes are ideal for trips up to
15 km at speeds of 25 km/hour, Neun said. The Dutch Cyclists'
Federation reported that if all car journeys up to 7.5 km would be
replaced by cycling trips, carbon emissions would decrease by 2.4
million tonnes per year in the Netherlands.
Even in Europe, with its very good public transit system, about half
of all car trips are six km or shorter.
To change this, the European Cyclists' Federation sponsored the
"Charter of Seville" last March in Spain. Representatives
from 47 countries called on all ministers of transport to recognise
the benefits of cycling, to promote cycling at the international
level, and to invest substantially in cycling in their own
countries.
Neun was critical of Germany's recent announcement to invest two
billion euros to put one million electric cars on the road by 2020.
Germany already has one million electric vehicles in the form of e-
bikes but they do not receive anything like this support, he said.
Lack of infrastructure such as separated bike lanes keeps bikes from
wider use.
To increase bike use, South Korea is planning bicycle highways - clear
plexiglass tubes elevated above highways where commuters could easily
ride 20 km into work protected from rain or wind, said Kee Yeon Hwang,
president of the Korea Transport Institute.
"Protected bikeways ought to be a right. It would increase the
social status of bike riders," said Enrique Peñalosa, a former
mayor of Bogota, Colombia.
Peñalosa started Bogota's famous car-free Sundays where no cars were
allowed in the entire city of eight million.
"We have over 500 kilometres of bikeways - some 60 kilometres
that are for bikes and pedestrians only," said Peñalosa.
However, there is enormous pressure from car owners and the
construction industry to build more roads even though cars already use
more space than all other modes of transport combined, he said.
There is another reason most governments do not take bicycle transport
more seriously. States are dependent on major revenue streams from
taxes on fuels, pointed out Tim Leunig of the London School of
Economics.
"That is why governments are often eager to build new roads
because that means more miles driven and more fuel tax revenue,"
Leunig said.
To make the shift to other modes of transport, the tax system will
have to change, he said.
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