[The Non-Euclidean Blog] Suu Kyi's Sentence Delayed

[NEB]

Aung San Suu Kyi's sentence has been delayed until August 11. Not, of course, that the extension of her house arrest isn't a foregone conclusion. As the BBC reports:

It is especially important for the military generals that Aung San Suu Kyi is out of the way ahead of the next elections, which they plan to hold in early 2010. The polls are widely seen as an attempt to legitimise the regime by increasing its democratic credentials. But in order for this to work to its favour, the generals need to make sure their allies win.

The Burmese people won't like Ms. Suu Kyi's extended imprisonment, since they already (vainly) voted her party into office nearly 20 years ago; and, by extension, voted her into office as Prime Minister. But, as the BBC aptly notes:

"A guilty verdict probably won't lead to large street protests, because people are still suffering from 2007," [Mung Pi] said. In September 2007 large-scale demonstrations led by monks - the most revered sector of society - were brutally quashed by the military, and the opposition movement is still said to be recovering. The generals know that, right now, their opponents do not have the strength to fight back.

Meanwhile, the United States has renewed strict economic sanctions on a country that flat-out doesn't need us. In fact, foreign investment in Myanmar has sextupled to $1 billion in the last year, mostly from China with assists from Russia and regional powers like Thailand and Vietnam. (Once again, "Made in China" is stamped on one of the world's nastiest regimes.)

Emotionally, it feels right to do something to hurt Myanmar's militocrats. But in this instance, sanctions are only hurting innocent third parties while driving Myanmar into the arms of our biggest rivals. Whoops.

Realistically, the only effective solutions are either the use of deadly force or truly global sanctions. We're too committed elsewhere for the former, and shouldn't do it anyway, in my opinion; and the latter is simply impossible in this universe. So what's left? Principled disengagement? Pragmatic engagement? What's really in our best national interest?

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Posted By NEB to The Non-Euclidean Blog at 7/31/2009 12:45:00 PM