OscarMania '16 Results!

[Michael Davidson]

Hey all,

Here are the results as I've been able to reconstruct them. There's still a few missing names on the winners list, so let me know if one of these is yours, and I will send out an amended results list later today. (We're on the honor system here, so don't be a jerk.)

The Top Five (with ties) in each category are presented below, along with how many they got right in that category. Ties are ordered by how far off they were on the First Tiebreaker. 

If I don't have a name yet, I just listed the time stamp for the ballot that won. For the ties, both tiebreaker results are included in parentheses. 

Without further ado...

Top Half:

Mike D: 8 correct 

Marie: 7 correct (1 name off, 1 degree off)

Jeff: 7 correct (8,1)

2/24/2016 15:37:18: 7 correct (12,7)

Tina: 6 correct (2,9)

Sarah H: 6 correct (3,7)

2/27/2016 14:15:48: 6 correct (27,12)

Bottom Half:

Mike D: 11 correct

Jeff: 10 correct (8,1)

2/24/2016 15:37:18: 10 correct (12,7)

Marie: 9 correct (1,1)

2/1/2016 15:31:30: 9 correct (11,4)

Overall:

Mike D: 19 correct

Jeff: 17 correct (8,1)

2/24/2016 15:37:18: 17 correct (12,7)

Marie: 16 correct

Sarah H: 14 correct

Tiebreaker 1 (Correct Answer: 48 names)

Marie: 49 names

Tina W.: 50 names

2/1/2016 11:53:28: 50 names

Sara S.: 50 names

Sarah H: 51 names

Tiebreaker 2 (Correct Answer:  61 degrees)

Sara S.: 61 Degrees

Marie: 62 Degrees

Jeff: 62 Degrees

Rob: 60 Degrees

Gus: 63 Degrees*

*Gus submitted his ballot at 8PM, two hours after the cut-off. Since I had already lost everybody's names, I let him submit late. This gave him a particular advantage on the second tiebreaker (since he could extrapolate from current conditions), so his fifth place in this category has an asterisk. 

Some other "interesting" statistics:

As a group, we averaged 47.34% in the Top Half, 39.13% in the bottom half, and 42.21% overall. Not our best year, but not too bad!

As a group, both our best and our worst category were in the Top Half. 91.30% of us correctly guessed Inside Out would win Best Animated Feature, but only 8.70% got Mark Rylance for Best Supporting Actor. (This category was tricky to pick: a lot of us went with Stallone or Bale, but there were a few for Ruffalo as well). 

86.96% of us had Makeup and Hairstyling correct, making it our best category in the Bottom Half, while only 13.04% got Visual Effects. 

As to the experimental tie-breaker, what do folks think? I'm a little reluctant to stick with it officially, as there is clearly a bias in favor of late ballots: the best 8 responses in the second tie-breaker, and 9 of the top 10, were on ballots filled out on the Friday, Saturday, or Sunday of Oscar weekend.

Anyway, thanks for playing, and sorry about the technical snafu. (Of course we'd have ballot irregularities on the year I sweep all three categories.) I'll refine the system for next year to ensure it doesn't happen again (either the ballot irregularities or my success). 

Best,

Mike

Sent from my iPhone

On Feb 28, 2016, at 7:47 PM, Michael Davidson <mike.a....@gmail.com> wrote:

Hey again,

Here's the link to the score sheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bkORukXa6oa7H0HbmfdvQ2jKJKjs4hBSW9QpxKHZ3z8/edit?usp=sharing

If you still want to play, go ahead and claim your ballot on the Ballots worksheet (just put your name in the name column), and put your e-mail down on the E-mails worksheet, so I can get back in touch with you.

I'll be updating in real time up to at least the In Memorium montage, at which point I may go to sleep.  If you want to look at the scores as they're updated, keep your eye on the Scores worksheet.

If you have any trouble with getting in, shoot me an e-mail. If you want to chat with others who are watching the scoring, click on the little speech bubble in the upper-right corner, next to the Comments button.

Good luck!

Mike

On Sun, Feb 28, 2016 at 7:18 PM, Michael Davidson <mike.a....@gmail.com> wrote:

Hey folks,

Unfortunately, do to a Google Forms glitch (possibly of my own making), the Oscar ballots you all submitted were recorded without names or e-mail addresses. As a result, I have 24 ballots, but no way to attach them to a particular person. I know when each ballot was submitted, but not who submitted it.

I will still score the results as planned (e-mail with score link to come), and will add a field to the spreadsheet for you to "claim" your ballot, if you want. Please only claim the ballot if you are sure that the ballot is yours. There will also be a place to put your e-mail address if you want to be apprised of results.

Not the most shining moment in the history of OscarMania, I admit. Kind of the Rob Lowe/Snow White of my little game.

Sorry folks. Hopefully we'll have better luck next year.

Best,

Mike

On Sun, Jan 31, 2016 at 5:14 PM, Michael Davidson <mike.a....@gmail.com> wrote:

Hey all,

It's time to make your picks for my annual Academy Awards Pool! I know I'm sending out the ballot a little later than in years past, but most people don't make their picks until the last week anyway, so you all should have plenty of time.

For those who haven't played in the past, there's no money involved (since none of us are particularly good at this), so there's no reason NOT to play. For those who have played before, you can skip down to the "Here's how to play" section for the ballot and tie-breaker rules (including NEW bonus EXPERIMENTAL tie-breaker!).

Here's how it works:

At the bottom of this e-mail is a link to a ballot with the names of all of the nominees for all of the categories (see? you don't even have to do any research!). All you'll need to do is fill out the ballot with who you think will win each category (or with wild-ass guesses, if that's more your style). The ballot also has a page for a tie-breaker (see below for details), and a page for an experimental tie-breaker.

We've divided up the categories into two chunks: The Top Half (which includes Best Picture and Director, both Screenplay awards, all four Acting awards, and Animated Feature), and The Bottom Half (which includes everything else).

When all the awards have been handed out, I will tabulate the scores and announce the top 5 pickers/guessers for The Top Half, The Bottom Half, Overall, and the Tie-Breaker.

Here's why you shouldn't be scared of playing:

If you're thinking "I'm going to totally suck at this! The only movie I saw this year was Fifty Shades of Gray!", then, miraculously enough, you have seen an Oscar Nominee (for Best Song). My other answer is: we're all kind of bad at this. Our overall performance is mediocre at best. Last year, our group average didn't crack 40% in any category. If you do horribly, you'll be in good company. Also, as long as you aren't one of the six people in the country who haven't seen Star Wars, you've seen at least one nominee in five of the categories.

Here's how to play:

Just click this link:

http://goo.gl/forms/7ZYyhaqnLv

And fill out the ballot, if you want in. The ballot must be submitted by 6 PM ET on Sunday, February 28!

I use Google Drive to tabulate scores, and while I will send a summary of the results (e.g. Top Fives and some random stats) out over e-mail, if you want a look at the full results, you'll need a Google/Gmail account. The last couple years, I have been posting scores in real time on Oscar Night and it worked out pretty well. I'm not sure I'll be able to stay awake till the end this year, but we might be doing that again. If so, you'll need a Google/Gmail account to get live score updates.

We are going to stick with the tie-breaker system we've used for the last few years, which worked pretty well:

How many people will be named in this year's In Memorium montage (you know, the series of clips where they show all the people who have died in the past year)? I will be counting names, not faces, so if they show somebody but don't give their name, they won't be included.

However, I'm also beta-testing a new, less morbid tie-breaker for possible use in future years. It's not going to "count" for anything this year (as if any of this does), but if people like it, maybe we'll try it for next year. Here's the experimental tie-breaker:

At the time the Best Picture Oscar is awarded, what will the outdoor temperature in degrees Fahrenheit (°F) be? To determine the "correct" answer, we will use the National Weather Service station closest to the theater, and the observation closest in time to the time the winner was announced. Whoever answers closest to the "correct" answer is the winner!

NOTE (because it's frequently asked): For the tie-breakers, we DO NOT use "Price is Right" rules. Whoever guesses closest (over or under) is the winner.

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions about any of this,
let me know.

Good luck!

- Mike

P.S. If there's anyone I'm missing that should be in on this, let me know. And I'm sorry if you've received this twice. And if you want me to stop sending you these e-mails every year, because you are not interested in participating ever, let me know that, too. I promise I won't be offended.