What is inflation?
A cliché, pop-definition is too much money chasing too few goods causing prices to be driven up. The definition is absurd as much cliché pop-anything is absurd.
There is essentially no money in the United States economy. Debt called credit issued by banks as interest bearing loans is used as money in the U. S. economy. Debt and credit is the same thing. Economic theory, mere assumption, does not recognize the difference in bank issued repayable credit and permanently circulating money. The “theory,” assumption, is absurd.
Is there too little or too much credit/debt in the U. S. market place? U. S. credit market debt is $57.5389 trillion as of the 2nd quarter of 2014 according to the Federal Reserve Bulletin of 09/14/2014, L1 chart. In addition, intra-government debt of $5 trillion is not included in the above $57 trillion. Part of this total credit/debt represents consumer goods that are not paid for. The rest of it is credit/debt that has been borrowed and not paid back in all the other economic sectors including non-productive speculation. We certainly have had price increases in consumer goods. Housing was driven into boom and bust. Why?
Is there a shortage of consumer goods? Walk into any “big-box store”; it will be loaded with unsold goods. Advertising is a hundreds of billions of dollars of annual business cajoling consumers to buy more and often offering discounts or price reductions. There are trillions of dollars of unpaid debt for consumer merchandise at the same time stores are loaded with unsold stuff. Too few goods? Too few goods is absurd, but there has been price increases as if there is “too much money.”
Is there too much credit/debt used as money? It may seem that way, but the total accumulated credit market debt published by the Federal Reserve does not represent credit/debt in circulation used as money. It is unpaid credit/debt and has not created any shortage of goods. Why do we have inflation as reflected in constantly rising consumer goods while there is a glut of goods?
The amount of credit/debt in circulation is called the money stock in the Federal Reserve Bulletin. The money stock is published in segments called M1(1) and M2(2) . As of the 2nd quarter of 2014 M1 = $2,407.7 billion and M2 = $10,288.8 billion. M1 and M2 are defined in the footnotes. An historical measure M3(3) was deleted from publication in 2006. John Williams at
shadowstat.com publishes a calculation of $15 trillion for M3.(4)
By any measure of money stock, there is not enough money stock in circulation to pay off existing debt. The only source of money stock is more bank credit/debt. It is not possible to eliminate debt by borrowing more to pay it. When the principle of debt is repaid to banks, it is removed from circulation until more money is lent back into the economy.
The economy is loaded with debt while there is insufficient circulating credit to clear the economy of already produced goods. There is insufficient circulating credit/debt to pay for existing goods, yet, prices rise. The cliché “too much money chasing too few goods” is falsified as an exclusive reason for current price increases. Such simple-minded clichés prove nothing.
There is empirical, historical evidence for increases in money supply affecting price increases such as in Europe while Europeans were plundering the Americas of gold and silver. Estimates range up to 400%, but the inflation occurred over time. The increases in money supply stimulated industry, invention, arts, and generally raised the standard of living. Discounting the genocidal plundering of the Americas, was the inflation in Europe a bad thing?
Technology and energy use has increased labor productivity, but prices still rise.
There are many indications of too small a money stock in the current economy. Labor participation rate is very low at 62%, 46,535,904(5) food stamp participants , bankrupt states, American Society of Civil Engineers 2013 report card on infrastructure is D+ with estimated $3.6 trillion needed in repairs by 2020, student debt is obscene, homeless estimation in the millions, largest per capita prison population, the national debt just passed $18 trillion, millions without healthcare except emergency rooms for which they cannot pay, education system inferior to other advanced and less advanced countries, extreme negative trade balance, degrading environmental ecology, child poverty is near worst in developed nations(6), repeating recessions and depressions, etc. Still, prices rise.
A conspiracy theory is that banks intentionally choke the credit/debt money supply to keep interest rates high. However, in the Federal Reserve Banking System interest rates are basically a matter of regulation by the Federal Reserve Banking System, and interest rates are at historical lows. The amount of lending that returns commercial banks the most revenue is more likely to determine their lending policy. An apparent counter-productive move by the Federal Reserve Banking System policy makers is paying interest on reserves of commercial banking. In effect, the commercial banks are paid not to lend at the same time that the nation is in depression and needing monetary stimulation.
Asset price value of total sector United States assets as published in the Federal Reserve Bulletin is, currently, $191 trillion. Hysterically imputed values (irrational exuberance) of corporate stocks are included.
The assets price value through time shows a growth from $10.5 trillion in 1980 to $191 trillion in 2014. What do we have more of that accounts for the fantastic increase? We have no more acres of land, top soil fertility has not increased. Minerals, natural gas, and petroleum have been used. Timber has been cut and fisheries depleted. All natural resources have been diminished. There has been increase in construction and infrastructure but not nearly enough to offset the diminution of resources. The assets price value merely shows an increase in the monetary prices of assets that includes the hysterically imputed prices of common stocks. An accurate graph of tangible assets may show a decrease in assets. The growth of asset prices is a better indication of inflation, or devaluation of the monetary unit, than officially published inflation numbers that are politically manipulated.
Monetary prices are determined by a complex association of measurable effects such as cost of production, seasons, weather, labor costs, and interest on loans. Prices are also affected by complex and variable human psychological attitudes as particularly shown by the hysterical values attributed to common stocks. Prices are affected by the ability of advertising to persuade people to want things they do not need. It is difficult to isolate the contribution of money stock quantity to inflation in the midst of all the other influences.
Credit market debt increased from $4.7 trillion in 1980 to $56.7 trillion in 2013. It follows a similar exponential increase as assets, and so does M2.
Population increased 1.4 times in the 1980 – 2014 time period while assets prices increased 19 times, credit market debt increased 12 times, the national debt increased 18 times, and M2 increased 7 times.
While these dramatic statistical increases occurred, the general standard of living for middle class Americans degraded. A large part of middle class degradation can be accounted for by the devaluation, called inflation, of the monetary unit.
It is irrefutable historical fact that debt has increased exponentially as shown in Figure 2. This brief period is indicative of the debt money system since the Bank of England was founded in 1694.
The power granted to private banks to issue money as credit/debt has enabled these institutions to create speculative housing, stock market, and derivative bubbles that cripple the productive capability of the nation. Particularly in the 1980 – 2014 period these institutions have gambled in derivatives to a dangerous level. The 2007-8 recession revealed the banking institutions to be national security risks. The risk was expressed by the sophistic phrase “too big to fail.”
A culture of monetary expansion and concentration has placed itself above all human values of well-being such as clean air, food, health, environment, shelter, education, art, etc. It is also a driver of the most obscene and destructive human activity, war.
The culture of monetary expansion and concentration is the result of an amoral and anti-social ethic of self-maximizing. Self-maximization is expressed in monetary price value. Monetary price value is unrelated to human life values.
The exponential increases in debt must be accompanied by exponential increases in asset prices or the system would collapse. Money stock must be increased to follow the debt and assets. Population growth is a small component of the increases. A chicken and egg argument may be raised here about which comes first or what drives the exponential growth, but the argument is mostly irrelevant. It is the debt system that creates the conditions. The debt system must be changed.
Legislation has been introduced to relieve the nation of the abusive bank credit/debt system. It is the National Emergency Employment Defense Act, NEED Act(7). This Act will end the power of banks to create credit out of nothing by making bookkeeping entries. It will the restore the money power to Congress as provided by the United States Constitution, Article I, Section 8(8). Without the power to create credit banks will not have the power to create bubbles and recessions. Congress will create the money debt and interest free for human services and infrastructure.
Congress will have the means to not only end the exponential growth of national debt; but, also, pay off the national debt as it comes due. Congress will have the means to fund needed human life supporting programs and infrastructure without borrowing money.
A common argument against such an act is that Congress will overspend creating inflation. Inflation control is addressed in the bill. Inflation is a hollow argument against the Act given the inexorable inflation of the existing system. Inflation control is actually a good argument supporting the monetary reform of the NEED
Act.
(1) M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) traveler's checks of nonbank issuers; (3) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) and automatic transfer service (ATS) accounts at depository institutions, credit union share draft accounts, and demand deposits at thrift institutions. Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, traveler's checks, demand deposits, and OCDs, each seasonally adjusted separately.
(2) M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000), less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market mutual funds, less IRA and Keogh balances at money market mutual funds. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail money funds, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.
(3) M3 = Savings bonds, Short-term Treasury securities, Bankers acceptances, Commercial paper.
(4)
http://www.shadowstats.com/charts/monetary-base-money-supply
(5)
http://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/pd/34SNAPmonthly.pdf
(6)
http://www.unicef.org/media/files/ChildPovertyReport.pdf
(7)
http://www.monetary.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/HR-2990.pdf
(8) To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures;