Those in the know predicted this shortage was coming months in advance. But even in the January 29 issue of California's Ag Alert (which closely covers the almond industry) , the interview with a beekeeper on page 4 did not even mention it.
And as far as USDA researchers not clearly defining the main cause of CCD (yes, it came to a head in 2004, three years before Hackenberg made the news and the term CCD was created) is that they were doing forensics on deadouts, rather than living in the middle of it as it occurred. There were at that time a number of causes, but only "nosema" ceranae and associated viruses resulted in the sudden collapse of colonies down to a silver-dollar patch of bees with a queen.
Similar as to what happened with the invasion of tracheal mite (which caused the collapse of 70% of hives in California), natural selection bred for bees that were resistant to the parasite, and the problem "went away."
The current situation is again due to a perfect storm of a number of issues coming to a head simultaneously, but all indications is that there is one or more pathogens involved -- I suspect a new virus variant or recombinant.
In our own operation, free of pesticides, synthetic miticides, with varroa under control, and nosema not correlating with problems, colonies simply were unable to respond "normally" to fall feeding of pollen sub and syrup. It was frustrating to watch them slowly dwindle, despite feeding truckloads of feed. Hot, dry weather and a diminished natural pollen flow may have been part of it, but since not all colonies in each yard were affected equally, I suspect that a pathogen was involved.
I've been out of the country for 11 days, but my sons say that the much-combined colonies that they took to almonds, appear to be brooding up. And when I checked today on a number of very weak colonies that I've been nursing, they also look like they may recover.
Historically, beekeepers suffer from one plague or another every decade or two. This one though, due to the current poor economics of commercial beekeeping, may be a reset for our industry.
The same issue of Ag Alert also has an article of new gene-edited cultivars of the Nonpareil almond that are self-fertile. We commercial beekeepers have been riding the almond pollination bubble for twenty years. That ride may be coming to an end, since the almond industry may eventually require only half as many hives each February.