11 Civilizations, 27 Heroes, Real Warfare
From the depths of obscurity to the peaks of legend, you will be the author of your civilization's history. Will you launch epic wars and conquer the entire world? Or rise up as a virtuous leader renowned for your sagacity? Will you set off to explore the unknown as a pioneer? Or dedicate yourself to helping your own people?
Only time will tell...
From exalted barbarians to altars of darkness, many new challenges await you within the Lost Kingdom. However, the greatest challenge of all will be the governors from several (eight) other kingdoms who will join you there...
Each season of the Lost Kingdom will be a long-term competition (50 Days) between multiple kingdoms lasting for more than two months. Who will sit upon the high throne when the light of past glory shines once more over the Lost Kingdom?The Lost Kingdom events will be gradually opened up to all kingdoms following the update. All governors and alliances will be able to participate in these events!
The Lost Kingdom, also called Kingdom versus Kingdom (KvK), is divided into multiple smaller phases. These smaller phases can be categorized into two major phases: pre-KvK and KvK. Pre-KvK defines the phase before players are actually inside the Lost Kingdom map.
This magnificent kingdom has been overrun by barbarian for far too long. the Ancient flames of the Last Crusade have been rekindled once more. Who will be master of the Lost Kingdom once all is said and done?
You, your alliance, and the rest of your kingdom will have a chance to compete directly with other kingdoms. This will be a long contest. The price of victory will be great, but the rewards will be greater still. Good luck!
LinkedIn and 3rd parties use essential and non-essential cookies to provide, secure, analyze and improve our Services, and to show you relevant ads (including professional and job ads) on and off LinkedIn. Learn more in our Cookie Policy.
We expect the general government debt ratio of the United Kingdom (rated AA) to rise from 101% of GDP as of end-2023 to nearly 110% by 2029, reversing the modest debt reduction since 2020 highs driven by a strong post-Covid economic recovery and elevated inflation. This is even assuming a comparatively benign base case that excludes recession in the years to 2029. We are forecasting 0.8% growth this year before 1.4% next year.
Regardless of the outcome of general elections, we consider it unlikely that UK budgetary policies and the fiscal framework will be strengthened materially after the elections, which will prevent a sustained decline in the trajectory of debt in the coming years.
Specifically, our AA assessment of the UK reflects a one-notch positive adjustment acknowledging the reserve-currency strengths of sterling and further upward adjustments for the independent monetary policy framework and excellent debt profile and market access. This reflects the very-long average debt maturity, excellent capital-market access and a significant amount of government debt still held by the Bank of England, resulting in government partly owing the debt to itself.
The general government deficit is projected to stay above 3% of GDP during each year of our forecast horizon to 2029. Leaving aside markets and rating agencies, UK fiscal rules are not strongly binding as the commitment to achieve net borrowing of not more than 3% of GDP and net debt declining on a one-year basis by the fifth year of a given forecasting period means that the year the government has committed to curtailing debt never in fact arrives and shifts forward one year each year. So, reducing debt is perpetually a promise for the future rather than the highest priority of the present.
Only three Chancellors of the Exchequer have been in office for five years or longer, which weakens any commitment to reduce debt by the fifth year of the forecast horizon. Moreover, the fact that UK fiscal rules have been changed on six separate occasions since 2011 after prevailing objectives became inconvenient does not bolster confidence. The UK leaving the European Union in 2020 removed the straight-jacket of more-binding EU Maastricht rules overseen externally, but a core driver of Brexit was also precisely that: returning sovereignty.
The UK spent more than GBP 120bn on debt interest payments in fiscal year 2022-23, more than for any other public commitment except for health and social care. The estimated net interest payments of 2.3% of GDP (or 5.8% of general-government revenue) for this year are high compared to the interest service of similarly rated sovereigns (Figure 1).
Higher interest payments reduce the capacity to cut budget deficits unless fiscal trade-offs are found elsewhere in the public accounts. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, a primary budget surplus of around 1.3% of GDP is needed to stabilise debt medium run, compared against an estimated primary deficit of 1.2% as of fiscal year 2023-24.
The fact that the UK has not achieved a primary surplus since 2001 despite a near-constant objective of achieving one demonstrates the challenge of realising a sustainable fiscal trajectory. This is particularly the case within the current ecosystem of comparatively high interest rates and outstanding military, social and climate spending requirements.
While the UK holds meaningful credit strengths anchoring its tolerance for high debt levels, the current rising debt trajectory represents a concern for the ratings in the medium to long run. This may risk a sudden re-appraisal of the sovereign within capital markets if debt risk is not managed prudently and especially if the reserve-currency benefits of the pound were to weaken.
It has been reported that at the beginning of June 2024 nine people died and over 2000 households have been demolished due to sever flooding in the Eastern Cape. KwaZulu Natal reported that 10 people had died following the heavy rainstorm and strong winds. The resultant flooding caused extensive damage to property and infrastructure and resulted in power outages and multiple injuries.
Two days later, the South African Weather Service issued a disruptive snow warning across high-lying parts of the Western Cape, Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. The snow in these regions caused disruptions in supply chains and logistics. Road closures and hazardous driving conditions delayed the transportation of goods.
The combination of the flooding events and the snowfall will also likely impact the farming industry as all three of these areas play a crucial role in South Africa's agricultural output, each specializing in different types of farming based on their unique climates and geographical conditions. The agriculture sector in these regions, which is critical to the local economy, will suffer losses due to crop damage and soil erosion.
Secondary perils include smaller-scale events, such as the examples seen across South Africa. These events occur more frequently and result in lower individual losses. Examples include hailstorms, floods, droughts, and wildfires. Secondary perils can also follow primary perils. For example inland flooding following a tropical cyclone. While these events may not grab the headlines of their primary counterparts, their cumulative impact have become substantial, particularly given their increasing frequency.
The increasing significance of secondary perils to the insurance industry is driven by several factors. Climate change, with its associated shifts in weather patterns and increased frequency of extreme weather events, has led to a rise in cumulative losses from secondary perils.
Moreover, the modeling of secondary perils presents a unique challenge. Traditional catastrophe models which rely on historical loss data are becoming less reliable for purposes of risk management due to the changing frequency and intensity of these events. As a result, there is a call for the insurance industry to develop innovative tools and approaches to more accurately assess climate change risks and map out potential future risks.
The growing impact of secondary perils also raises concerns about insurability. As extreme weather events become more common, insurers are having to pay out larger amounts and numbers of claims more frequently. This has had an impact on the industry in several ways:
In 2022 we saw a global surge in flood losses. The heavy rains in eThekwini, South Africa, caused extensive flooding, resulting in billions of rands in property damage. Extreme rain events involve intense, localised heavy rain and snowfall within a short timeframe. Losses are increased by growing urban population.
While there is debate about whether these floods can be directly attributed to climate change, it is undeniable that climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of storm systems worldwide. In terms of a worldwide impact, four weather perils have been identified namely floods, tropical cyclones, winter storms and severe thunderstorms which have caused a global estimated economic loss of USD 200 billion a year. An example being that currently the Philippines have lost 3% of their GDP to events caused by one of the four weather perils.
Other risks such as wildfires and hailstorms are also increasing in frequency and resulting in significant losses. A prime example is the April 2021 wildfires in the Western Cape that caused significant damage to the University of Cape Town. The damage to UCT is estimated to be about R1-billion from a single event. This why reinsurers have warned that secondary perils are becoming the primary driver of insurance losses in the industry. A single peril has the ability to impact an insurance industry over multiple classes of insurance.
Secondary perils can no longer be regarded as secondary concerns. They are becoming pivotal factors to consider in the global risk landscape. South Africa is a prime example of their increasing frequency and severity which amplify their cumulative impact, posing a clear and present danger to economic stability. This, coupled with the threat of high-risk areas becoming uninsurable, increase in premiums and higher deductibles as well as a hardening reinsurance market, will negatively policyholders. The frequent exposure to these extreme weather events can degrade property values and increase long-term expenses. Insurers need to improve their risk models to accurately assess the risks associated with secondary perils. There have already been progressive advancements in this regard as some insurers have incorporated Geographic Information Systems into their risk models which enables insurers to weigh risks of a property more accurately based on its location.
c80f0f1006