The Missing Two Million: Analyzing NYC's Shockingly Low Voter Turnout in the 2024/2025 Primaries
Ralph Yozzo
The Missing Two Million: Analyzing NYC's Shockingly Low Voter Turnout in the 2024/2025 Primaries
New York City, a political powerhouse and a city of millions, consistently faces a fundamental issue in its local elections: voter apathy. A recent analysis of election data for the 2024/2025 races reveals a critical turnout crisis, particularly in the primaries, where a minority of registered voters are effectively choosing the city's leadership.
The question isn't who won, but where did everyone else go?
The Turnout Crisis: 10% Decides the Future
When we look at the raw numbers for New York City, the picture is stark. The city boasts roughly 5.1 million registered voters [00:07].
General Election Turnout: For the presidential general election, about 2.8 million people showed up, which is a respectable number but still leaves a significant portion of the electorate on the sidelines.
Primary Election Turnout: In the recent 2025 Democratic primary, the number of participants plummeted to only about 1 million [00:42].
The difference between the number of registered voters and the primary turnout leaves a pool of approximately 2 million missing people [01:03]. As the video highlights, this means that the primary election, which often decides who wins in the heavily Democratic city, is being determined by roughly 10% of the people [05:28]. A low turnout results in a lack of true representation for the city's diverse population [06:49].
Decoding the Primary Map: Cuomo vs. Mandani
To understand the political landscape of this low-turnout election, it's essential to examine how specific neighborhoods voted in the recent primary, using the contest between candidates Cuomo and Mandani as a case study:
The Staten Island Anomaly: Mandani performed notably well on Staten Island, a borough traditionally known for its conservative leanings, barely getting over 50% of the vote [01:52], [02:02]. The speaker suggests this result may stem from a disgruntled or anti-Cuomo electorate, even among registered Democrats [02:16].
Cuomo Strongholds: Cuomo dominated in key areas, including Bensonhurst/Burl Park (with approximately 90% of the vote) [02:42], [03:00] and parts of Historic Williamsburg (polling around 88%) [03:36], [03:44].
Greenpoint's Homeowners: Greenpoint, an area with a high number of homeowners, showed a strong preference for Mandani, giving him 64% of their vote [03:54], [04:00].
The Turnout Gap Explains Everything
The video raises an interesting puzzle by observing potential overlaps between voting patterns. For example, some areas that voted for Donald Trump in the general election were later found to be voting for Mandani in the Democratic primary [04:56].
The most logical explanation for these seemingly contradictory voting patterns is the turnout gap. The 3 million people who showed up for the general election are simply not the same 1 million people who showed up for the primary [05:03], [05:14]. The small, highly motivated group that participates in the primary wields outsized influence, and their demographics and political preferences don't necessarily reflect the broader general electorate.
The Machiavellian Lesson
Looking back at the past, the video briefly references the chaotic 2021 primary, which was nearly impossible to interpret due to the sheer number of candidates, calling it a "disaster primary" [05:36], [05:53]. The analysis also touches on the shift in how a leader like Eric Adams has been perceived, suggesting a lesson from Machiavelli's The Prince: a ruler should be feared rather than loved, as love is fickle. However, the one constant is that a leader must not be hated [07:51]. The reason for the shift in political loyalty often comes down to the people's will.
Ultimately, a massive increase in participation—getting closer to the 3 million mark—would provide a better representation of what New Yorkers truly want [06:49]. Until then, New York City elections will continue to be decided by a passionate few.
Watch the full video analysis here: Show the vote map of the New York City 2021 2024 2025. Why do only 1 million people show up?
Call to Action: If you want your voice heard and your interests represented, you must show up and vote in the primaries [07:05].
Yoel Friedman
--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Taxpayers of New York Political Club for seniors and all ages" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to tax-payers-of-new...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tax-payers-of-new-york/CAJy-wZa7t1eYooR2vCv1hXBYfkB7z9xj%2B5q9oKqgpviGx0P8Gw%40mail.gmail.com.