http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion
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Apr 20, 2011, 4:27:34 PM4/20/11
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion
The clustering illusion refers to the tendency to erroneously perceive
small samples from random distributions as having significant
"streaks" or "clusters", caused by a human tendency to underpredict
the amount of variability likely to appear in a small sample of random
or semi-random data due to chance.[1]
Thomas Gilovich found that most people thought that the sequence
OXXXOXXXOXXOOOXOOXXOO
[2] looked non-random, when, in fact, it has several characteristics
maximally probable for a "random" stream, such as an equal number of
each result and an equal number of adjacent results with the same
outcome for both possible outcomes. In sequences like this, people
seem to expect to see a greater number of alternations than one would
predict statistically. The probability of an alternation in a sequence
of independent random binary events is 0.5, yet people seem to expect
an alternation rate of about 0.7.[3] In fact, in a short number of
trials, variability and non-random-looking "streaks" are quite
probable.
Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky explained this kind of misprediction
as being caused by the representativeness heuristic[4] (which itself
they also first proposed). Gilovich argues that a similar effect
occurs for other types of random dispersions, including 2-dimensional
data such as seeing clusters in the locations of impact of V-1 flying
bombs on London during World War II or seeing streaks in stock market
price fluctuations over time.[1][4]
The clustering illusion was central to a widely reported study by
Gilovich, Robert Vallone and Amos Tversky. They found that the idea
that basketball players shoot successfully in "streaks", sometimes
called by sportcasters as having a "hot hand" and widely believed by
Gilovich et al.'s subjects, was false. In the data they collected, if
anything the success of a previous throw very slightly predicted a
subsequent miss rather than another success.[5]
Using this cognitive bias in causal reasoning may result in the Texas
sharpshooter fallacy. It may also have a relationship with gambler's
fallacy. More general forms of erroneous pattern recognition are
pareidolia and apophenia.
Clustering (or the illusion of clustering) is also used in the
analysis of CSPRNG and TCP/IP Sequence Numbers.[6][vague]
[edit]
The clustering illusion refers to the tendency to erroneously perceive
small samples from random distributions as having significant
"streaks" or "clusters", caused by a human tendency to underpredict
the amount of variability likely to appear in a small sample of random
or semi-random data due to chance.[1]
Thomas Gilovich found that most people thought that the sequence
OXXXOXXXOXXOOOXOOXXOO
[2] looked non-random, when, in fact, it has several characteristics
maximally probable for a "random" stream, such as an equal number of
each result and an equal number of adjacent results with the same
outcome for both possible outcomes. In sequences like this, people
seem to expect to see a greater number of alternations than one would
predict statistically. The probability of an alternation in a sequence
of independent random binary events is 0.5, yet people seem to expect
an alternation rate of about 0.7.[3] In fact, in a short number of
trials, variability and non-random-looking "streaks" are quite
probable.
Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky explained this kind of misprediction
as being caused by the representativeness heuristic[4] (which itself
they also first proposed). Gilovich argues that a similar effect
occurs for other types of random dispersions, including 2-dimensional
data such as seeing clusters in the locations of impact of V-1 flying
bombs on London during World War II or seeing streaks in stock market
price fluctuations over time.[1][4]
The clustering illusion was central to a widely reported study by
Gilovich, Robert Vallone and Amos Tversky. They found that the idea
that basketball players shoot successfully in "streaks", sometimes
called by sportcasters as having a "hot hand" and widely believed by
Gilovich et al.'s subjects, was false. In the data they collected, if
anything the success of a previous throw very slightly predicted a
subsequent miss rather than another success.[5]
Using this cognitive bias in causal reasoning may result in the Texas
sharpshooter fallacy. It may also have a relationship with gambler's
fallacy. More general forms of erroneous pattern recognition are
pareidolia and apophenia.
Clustering (or the illusion of clustering) is also used in the
analysis of CSPRNG and TCP/IP Sequence Numbers.[6][vague]
[edit]
backspace
May 1, 2011, 8:44:54 AM5/1/11
to Tautology notes
On Apr 20, 10:27 pm, backspace <stephan...@gmail.com> wrote:
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion
was discussed here
http://groups.google.com/group/talk.origins/browse_frm/thread/8f032783b61ed263/64946f3a8c130742#64946f3a8c130742
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Jun 12, 2011, 1:29:13 AM6/12/11
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