Tasker Completed: Weather Forecast Improvement

[National Weather Service Operations Center]

Good evening,

The NWSOC received a tasker from PCO (Aaron Willibey) for Dr. Spinrad on Thursday afternoon, October 26, with a deadline of COB Sunday, October 29. 

The information requested was:

We are seeking a few brief bullet points (very brief) for examples of how weather forecasts have improved over the last several decades. For example I believe I have seen some stats about the 5 day forecast today being as accurate as the 2 or 3 day forecast from X number of years ago (something along those lines).

Suggested bullets to describe forecast improvements over the past 30-40 years:
1) General 5 day forecast example from above
2) Improvements in hurricane track forecasts
3) Improvements in hurricane intensity forecasts

A wealth of information was relayed to the NWSOC and we are going to wrap up this tasker early and considered it closed. An attached document includes a summary of the feedback received including bullet points and all of the feedback below the summary. If anything else is needed please let us know. Also, if more details come in over the next 24 hours, we will forward this information. 

Thanks you,

Mike Musher/Janae Elkins

National Weather Service Operations Center

College Park, MD

Normal Operating Hours: 6:00 a.m. - 10:00 p.m. Eastern Time daily

[NWS PCO - NOAA Service Account]

Mike and Janae,

Thank you very much to all who contributed such excellent information.  It should not only be helpful for the event Dr. Spinrad has later this week but also a great reference for future engagements for both NWS leadership and NOAA leadership.

Thanks again,

Aaron

--

Aaron Willibey

Program Coordination Officer

NOAA's National Weather Service

Office of the Under Secretary

email: nws...@noaa.gov

cell: 202-774-8658

 

[National Weather Service Operations Center]

It was our pleasure Aaron! I'm glad we we're able to help out and provide this very important information!

Janae Elkins 

National Weather Service Operations Center

College Park, MD

Normal Operating Hours: 6:00 a.m. - 10:00 p.m. Eastern Time daily

[Stephan Smith - NOAA Federal]

We typically do not get taskers from NWSOC of this nature.  Is this a one-off, or the first of a new staffing procedure? 

Thanks,

Steve Smith

--

Dr. Stephan (Steve) Smith 

Director, Office of Science and Technology Integration

National Weather Service

O: 301-427-9170, C/M: 301-928-8431

LDS-424, Pack 4

[Mike Sowko]

Good morning Steve. 

This was a one-off as far as involving STI. NWSOC has always facilitated the collaboration of PCO/OCoS tasters, but STI is not usually in the mix because the taskers are usually more focused on impacts or DSS. 

That said, we appreciate your help, and there’s a chance we’ll need you again for something. 

Thanks,

Mike

Mike Sowko

Acting Director, Operations Division

Acting Meteorologist-In-Charge, NWS Operations Center

NOAA/NWS/Office of the Chief Operating Officer

Silver Spring, MD

Cell: 301-233-9258

On Oct 30, 2023, at 7:44 AM, Stephan Smith - NOAA Federal <stepha...@noaa.gov> wrote: