Severe Weather Stats for 2024 (thus far)

[National Weather Service Operations Center]

John and Team,

The Storm Prediction Center, Severe Weather Program and the Performance/Verification Branch has compiled several items for you pertaining to your request.

1.  The Severe Weather Program slides (70 in total, likely you would need the first few, but lots more information for your review):  https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1sOVuyQgTS2pXfR8WVfRTTAJ7dQL1HKHeLCCPuBbeYm4/edit?usp=sharing

2. SPC (3 slides, stats from April 1-June 10):  
https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1RlZBmRFBlJ66-Cnco98vF47VhYwC8_ygHBZB3C1IOfc/edit?usp=sharing

In addition, the email below is from our Performance Branch with highly preliminary data:

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Hi Brian,

Chuck / Mike are out for the next few hours, so I can give the preliminary verification stats for June through 00z on 6/11 (below).  I know Chuck has already provided prelim stats for April and May in the last request; those still will not become official for some time still due to the time it takes offices to enter them into Storm Data.

Prelim June TOR Warning Verification                       Prelim June SVR Warning Verification (No TOR)                  Prelim June FFW Verification 

Total Warnings - 90                                                         Total Warnings - 1281                                                                 Total Warnings - 229

POD - 0.532                                                                    POD - 0.74                                                                                  POD - 0.778

FAR - 0.80                                                                       FAR - 0.553                                                                                 FAR - 0.507

Average Lead Time - 8.4 minutes                                   Average Lead Time - 16.5 minutes                                              Average Lead Time - 70.5 minutes

For Item # 2 - our system can only produce EF-scale-related stats once Storm Data (official) entries are made - so calculating stats for April, May and June for EF-3/4 is not readily possible right now.  I'm cc'ing the severe weather program folks who may (or may not) track these more in real time.  

The last EF-3+ tornadoes we have in Storm Data are from March 14.  There are 3, with the following stats:

Events - 3

POD - 1.0

Mean Lead Time - 19.85 minutes

Initial Lead Time - 18.00 minutes

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If you and the team need any additional information, please let your NWSOC know as we will be ready to assist.  

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Brian Montgomery

National Weather Service Operations Center

College Park, MD

24/7 Contact: (301) 244-9650

Email: nws.op...@noaa.gov

[John Sokich - NOAA Federal]

Thanks to everyone!

__________________________________

John Sokich

Director, Congressional Affairs

National Weather Service 

c- 301-332-4680

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