HOW TO SAVE THIS PRESIDENCY
Wyatt
By DICK MORRIS
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FORGET about Monica Lewinsky for just a minute and look at the rest
of Clinton's recent record as president.
His major domestic legislative priority - the tobacco bill - died a
disconcerting death in Congress. His other significant initiatives -
Medicare expansion and child care - have been deliberately ignored.
Meanwhile, his foreign-policy achievements are unraveling -
chaotically. There is still no progress in the Middle East, the Irish
peace accord is threatened by violence, North Korea seems to be
gearing up new nuclear capacity, non-proliferation is in ruins after
India's and Pakistan's nuclear explosions, and peace in the Balkans is
as far away as ever.
The prosperous economy is threatened by Japanese recession and Asian
currency instability and Russia is perilously unstable. Social
Security reform is still a far-off goal.
Yet Clinton still gets good marks on his job performance. Even after
his speech admitting to the Lewinsky affair, his job rating still
stands at 60 percent - a drop of about 5 points, but still a very high
number.
Why the high ratings? The controversy surrounding Monica Lewinsky has
so monopolized public attention that it is all that the public is able
to hear. To have a negative view of Clinton's job performance has
become tantamount to saying that you hold the adultery against him. To
approve is to say that adultery shouldn't be part of judging a
president. In a curious way, l'affaire Lewinsky has stopped the
American public from judging the job performance of this president and
has insulated him from the negatives that he deserves for the failures
of his policies.
The blunt fact is that Bill Clinton has not been a very good president
since the Lewinsky scandal darkened his administration. Whether
through distraction or just a lack of skill, he has not lived up to
the high standards of progress or momentum he established since 1995.
Consider the evidence:
His tobacco legislation was defeated because he blundered in including
a tax hike on cigarettes, making the package vulnerable to advertising
by the cigarette companies.
He was completely blindsided by the Indian and Pakistani nuclear
blasts. He had paid no real attention to the subcontinent and likely
had allowed Indian paranoia to be stimulated by his satellite deals
with the Chinese.
His decision to postpone tax cuts until Social Security was "fixed",
and then to delay fixing Social Security until next year, deprived him
of an agenda and of tactical flexibility. A genuine achievement on
Social Security, or a broad-based tax cut, would be just what his
lagging administration could use right now, but he has taken both off
the table to his own detriment.
He decided to use funds from the tobacco-tax increase to pay for his
ambitious plans for Medicare expansion and new child-care initiatives.
When the tobacco tax went down, so did these programs. He should have
used current surplus revenues or funds from new spending cuts to pay
for these programs. If he had, he would have some very nice bills to
sign this summer.
He has been far too preoccupied to proceed with appropriate vigor in
Kosovo and has let a chance for peace to take root in the Balkans
escape.
He has failed to press aggressively for his educational-standards
proposal and has let the Republicans quietly fail to take it up.
Fortunately for Clinton, America has not noticed these failings. It
has been so distracted by the Lewinsky scandal and Starr's
investigation that it has had no time to tune in on the president's
actual job performance. Clinton is coasting off the fights of 1995,
the welfare-reform bill of 1996, and the budget deal of 1997. That
1998 has been a total void seems to have escaped everybody's notice.
Clinton should:
Get moving on Social Security reform. The public will follow the
process with its whole attention, Republicans will gladly take a back
seat, and Clinton can pull a big accomplishment out of the hat.
Negotiate personally on the subcontinent, using his considerable
ability and charm to broker a deal between India and Pakistan.
Reintroduce the tobacco bill without the tax increase. The cigarette
companies have so focused on the tax hike as their basis for opposing
the bill that without the taxes to attack, they would have little
ability to mobilize public sentiment against the legislation. It would
likely pass easily. If it went down, it would be just the kind of
issue Democrats need to stay alive in 1998.
Work out a tax-cut deal with the GOP and pass it in September. Nothing
would look better than a tax cut with his signature on it. The
Republicans will gladly cooperate because they want the achievement to
advertise in the fall elections.
As part of the tax-cut deal, use some of the surplus for child-care
programs and/or Medicare expansion. Republicans will likely agree to
these new programs in return for the tax cut they want, need, and
would cherish.
Start pushing for indexing the minimum wage to the cost of living. The
GOP will oppose this common-sense initiative and it will give Clinton
a good place to stand rhetorically.
Be aggressive in vetoing any spending bill which cuts education
funding. Let the Republicans threaten to close down the government
again. Over an issue like schools, this is the right fight at the
right time for this president.
To save his presidency, Clinton has to use his presidency. To keep in
office, he has to act, initiate programs and exercise his power. There
are simple ways to do this. Get your head out of the sand, Mr.
President, and start moving.
-ooo-0^0-ooo-
Wyatt Wright
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The heights by great men reached and kept,
were not attained by sudden flight.
No.they, while their companions slept,
were toiling upward through the night.
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John Blau
Thank you for a well thought out and well presented analysis. Wish we
had more of that around.
Unfortunately Clinton has chosen to use the ever-popular "common
enemy" technique. His blatantly terrorist bombings will probably
be the last nail in his casket.
Maybe we'll get lucky, and someone will actually shoot the son of a
bitch: turnabout would be fair play here. If anyone decides to do it,
I promise to contribute to the defense fund (yes, this *does* mean
I am too chickenshit to "do it myself").
JB
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