It's probably true rthat there will be no such outcome for Ukraine as a minor incursion. It's absolutely necessary, from Putin's point of view, that Ukraine not become especially friendly with Europe or, most importantly, become a NATO member. In Putin's mind, NOW is the time to stop both from happening. To accomplish this goal requires that Russia invade Ukraine then topple and replace the sitting government. Putin won't be satisfied with a replacement any less friendly and compatible with Russian interests as are Belarus and Kazakhstan. So, here we go and within a few weeks to a month.
Biden's attempt to demonstrate he has successfully psychoanalyzed and/or empathized with Putin's concerns is less than convincing. Putin is a master manipulator and can play a role designed to deceive as it softens an opponent. Biden likely is no less vulnerable to Putin's special skills than as are others.
Insurgencies are difficult to suppress or eliminate if you, the ruling government, are concerned about the public image of human rights violations. But Putin won't much care about or might even reward no-holds-barred extremely brutal aggression against insurgents. The World will be shocked and the U.N. may criticize. Yet, nonetheless, Putin will have what he intends to have.