The Saying Goes That It's Always Darkest Before The Dawn.... But Will There BE A Dawn As Opposed To Invasion And War In Ukraine?

[Walt In Seattle]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/13/world/europe/russia-ukraine-talks.html

[Walt In Seattle]

On Friday, January 14, 2022 at 1:00:54 AM UTC-8, Walt In Seattle wrote:
> https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/13/world/europe/russia-ukraine-talks.html

And now there are cyber-attacks on Jkraine government sites and embassy sites for the U.s. and U.K. They carried warning messages for Ukrainians to expect the worst.....

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59992531

[Walt In Seattle]

More on cyber-attqack:

https://nypost.com/2022/01/14/cyberattack-hits-ukrainian-government-websites-as-west-warns-on-russia-conflict/

[Walt In Seattle]

According to news media reports, Russia is moving more military assets closer to Ukraine while the U.S. considers the possibility of backing an insurgency in Ukraine if Russia invades and Russia may have prepositioned operatives in Eastern Ukraine to conduct a false flag attack as pretext for invasion.The ingrediants for war and a proxy war, if not a new COLD war, are being assembled. The outlook for this year and years to come is grim.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/14/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden-military.html

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/14/politics/us-intelligence-russia-false-flag/index.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-moves-more-weaponry-toward-ukraine-keeps-the-west-guessing-11642161605

[Walt In Seattle]

How effective is this threat? Russia has been sanctioned in the past and such has not stopped Russia from doing whatever it wants to do. In THIS case, the logic or threat is that sanctions will be SO SEVERE that Russia will have no choice but to yield. The problem here is that (1) the risk is high that the Russian population, who already have strong cultural ties to Ukraine or portions of Ukraine, will see the West as attempting to marginalize Russia while splitting away a region that was once a prized section of Russia and economic hardship will be a condition Russians will blame on the West, not Russian leadership. (2) The Biden Administration should consider the possibility confronting Russia with deep sanctions could trigge4r a new COLD war the likes of which we have not seen in decades or worse. (3) Punishing sanctions could drive Russia into China's open arms where Russia and China might join in an economic as well as military alliance to be reckoned with by the West. This, in concert with a new COLD War may turn into an extreme challenge.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-biden-jake-sullivan-face-the-nation/

[Walt In Seattle]

It's probably true rthat there will be no such outcome for Ukraine as a minor incursion. It's absolutely necessary, from Putin's point of view, that Ukraine not become especially friendly with Europe or, most importantly, become a NATO member. In Putin's mind, NOW is the time to stop both from happening. To accomplish this goal requires that Russia invade Ukraine then topple and replace the sitting government. Putin won't be satisfied with a replacement any less friendly and compatible with Russian interests as are Belarus and Kazakhstan. So, here we go and within a few weeks to a month.

Biden's attempt to demonstrate he has successfully psychoanalyzed and/or empathized with Putin's concerns is less than convincing. Putin is a master manipulator and can play a role designed to deceive as it softens an opponent. Biden likely is no less vulnerable to Putin's special skills than as are others.

Insurgencies are difficult to suppress or eliminate if you, the ruling government, are concerned about the public image of human rights violations. But Putin won't much care about or might even reward no-holds-barred extremely brutal aggression against insurgents. The World will be shocked and the U.N. may criticize. Yet, nonetheless, Putin will have what he intends to have.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c67eB14OWJc

https://www.reuters.com/world/blinken-arrives-berlin-ukraine-talks-with-european-allies-2022-01-20/

[Walt In Seattle]

This looks more like the runup to war and less like dependence on sanctions or diplomacy, from an American perspective, to deal with developing circumstances in as well as around Ukraine. To say Russia will pay a heavy economic price while feeding military aid and training Ukraininans on how to use American weaponry is to imply the U.S. will principally do one thing while it's actually doing something else. If we're getting ready to or are already prepared for what amounts to a proxy war with Russia, we should be transparent about our intentions. It's true that the Biden Administration has said it would "consider" providing military aid to Ukraine. Why doesn't it seem as if consideration is over and we're now well involved in what we were considering? As for Russia and Putin: the notion that Putin has not yet decided to invade Ukraine appears to be pure BUILLSHIT! But what else should we have expected?

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-announces-deployment-over-140-warships-some-black-sea-after-biden-warning-1671447

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/first-part-200-mln-us-defence-aid-arrives-ukraine-2022-01-22/

[Walt In Seattle]

The U.K. now asserts Russia is potentially plotting to topple then replace the sitting government in Ukraine with a pro-Russian government.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/23/world/europe/uk-russia-ukraine.html

[Walt In Seattle]

On Sunday, January 23, 2022 at 1:14:09 PM UTC-8, Walt In Seattle wrote:
> The U.K. now asserts Russia is potentially plotting to topple then replace the sitting government in Ukraine with a pro-Russian government.
>
> https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/23/world/europe/uk-russia-ukraine.html

Economic sanctions on Russia may suddenly be less the centerpiece of American strategy in Eastern Europe to disincentivize an invasion of Ukraine. But Ukraine could already be lost -- a likely reality implied by the evacuation of families of U.S. diplomats in Ukraine. Ukraine's sitting government is NOT safe and nothing short of a military conflict between the U.S. and Russia or NATO and Russia shall prevent Russia from eventually removing the current Ukrainian government. Russia knows we are not prepared to travel that road. The best the U.S. can hope for is to establish an insurgency in the aftermath of invasion then conduct a proxy war. However, Putin knows how to deal with insurgents and disrupt another Afghanistan scenario, as has been demonstrated in Chechnya. Stationing troops in Eastern Europe while matching Russian naval forces in the vicinity of Eastern European allies might deter Putin from acting beyond Ukraine. But none of this will save Ukraine in the short term. Our best efforts will have to be in (1) preventing Putin from doing what he does best -- manipulating people, including World leaders -- and (2) shifting to a strategy which recognizes Putin will fight as dirty as he believes he has to then effectively making him regret those insances where Putin was responsible for something truly horific. Item 2 will be most difficult to calibrate. -- not too much or too little and not so much or so much of if any of a certain type of response that we look in the mirror and see that we look just like him. Difficult indeed that will be!

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/23/us/politics/biden-troops-nato-ukraine.html

[Walt In Seattle]

Russian cyber-attacks possible in the U.S. relevant to Ukraine?

https://nypost.com/2022/01/24/dhs-warns-of-russian-hacks-as-ukraine-invasion-fears-grow/

[Walt In Seattle]

We are but a short time away from the day Russia will invade Ukraine, I believe. It is also my intuition that the new alliance between Putin and Xi, which they will not call an alliance yet is what it is nonetheless, will expand in scope and meaning at the time of invasion. I expect, again on intuition, that Russia will send a message to the West as to Russia's sense of authority and validation of its power to act via substantial cyber-attacks in Western nations. This will be Putin's signal that he can reach into such nations and casue havoc if they interfere with his plans now or in the future. With an alliance by some other name with China, Russia will feel much safer from retaliation than Russia has in decades. This is our future.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/06/biden-security-adviser-sullivan-says-russian-invasion-could-come-any-day-now.html

[Walt In Seattle]

Minutes ago, Vladimir Putin has set the predicate for invasion and annexation of Ukraine entirely at most or invasion and creation of a Russian-friendly government in Ukraine. This occurs in what was originally stated to be a speech as well as decree on the Russian separatist regions of Ukraine but which Putin uses now as a probable platform to justify the return of Ukraine as a region of Russia. Putin DID "recognize" the separatist regions of Ukraine as independent republics. This alone could be a trigger for Western sanctions. Knowing that sanctions may now be in the pipeline, Putin has little or no incentive to hold back on any invasion plan. It seems the days of the sitting government in Ukraine are numbered.

[Walt In Seattle]

On Monday, February 21, 2022 at 11:58:01 AM UTC-8, Walt In Seattle wrote:
> Minutes ago, Vladimir Putin has set the predicate for invasion and annexation of Ukraine entirely at most or invasion and creation of a Russian-friendly government in Ukraine. This occurs in what was originally stated to be a speech as well as decree on the Russian separatist regions of Ukraine but which Putin uses now as a probable platform to justify the return of Ukraine as a region of Russia. Putin DID "recognize" the separatist regions of Ukraine as independent republics. This alone could be a trigger for Western sanctions. Knowing that sanctions may now be in the pipeline, Putin has little or no incentive to hold back on any invasion plan. It seems the days of the sitting government in Ukraine are numbered.

And now, short of a miracle, Ukraine is feeling the knife's edge, a knife held by Vladimir Putin, which Putin stands ready to stab into the heart of Ukraine. Putin likely believes this is his moment and that the West will not or even can not stop him.and his dream of a resurgent Russia. We will see how this goes and whether it wiill lead to something no one expected, including Putin.

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-us-warns-ukraine-full-scale-russian-invasion-within-48-hours-1681798


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/02/23/russia-ukraine-invasion-crisis-update/6906567001/

[Walt In Seattle]

On Monday, February 21, 2022 at 11:58:01 AM UTC-8, Walt In Seattle wrote:
> Minutes ago, Vladimir Putin has set the predicate for invasion and annexation of Ukraine entirely at most or invasion and creation of a Russian-friendly government in Ukraine. This occurs in what was originally stated to be a speech as well as decree on the Russian separatist regions of Ukraine but which Putin uses now as a probable platform to justify the return of Ukraine as a region of Russia. Putin DID "recognize" the separatist regions of Ukraine as independent republics. This alone could be a trigger for Western sanctions. Knowing that sanctions may now be in the pipeline, Putin has little or no incentive to hold back on any invasion plan. It seems the days of the sitting government in Ukraine are numbered.

Here, I see that I was VERY wrong. I expected Ukraine to be steamrollered in short order. But, unless Russia and Putin have a new plan for taking over Ukraine, It seems Putin has embarrassed himself. I thought Putin knew what he was doing and could vanquish Ukraine easily. Perhaps he has another card up his sleeve to play. We'll see.

[Walt In Seattle]

It's time to take a deep breath, pause, think CAREFULLY and be cautious. This is for all involved World leaders to consider. Events could spiral out of control and actions could be taken from which there may be no walking back. A threat of unspecified "consequences" issued by Putin as to shipments of weapons from the U.S. to Ukraine in tandem with Putin's vague suggestion tactical nukes might be used against Ukraine is worrisome. Yes; Putin could be bluffing. But no one should ASSUME he is. Once nukes come into play, how do we, the World, avoid sliding into World War III?

[Walt In Seattle]

I don't know if Vladimir Putin is ready to use low yield tactical nukes in Ukraine, or if he is getting close to taking that sort of action. But if he goes off into that deep end, how should the World respond, particularly the U.S.?

https://www.foxnews.com/world/zelenskyy-world-be-ready-for-possibility-putin-uses-nuclear-weapons

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/15/politics/tapper-zelensky-interview-cnntv/index.html