On 5/20/22 6:52 AM, chrisv wrote:
> 25.BX945 wrote:
>
>> chrisv wrote:
>>>
>>> Stock market not doing so well...
>>
>> Well, it goes down, it goes up, the Why is not
>> often clear. For now it's gonna be down-ish, and
>> later it'll shoot way high again.
>
> It seems to me that it soars when the government is borrowing money
> like mad and lending for nothing, then it comes back to reality when
> the "stimulus" stops.
There's some truth in that, but it's not the whole picture.
Part of it is the inherent instability of (quasi-) capitalism,
chaotic influences too.
At the moment, we're at the crest of yet another real-estate
speculation/boom cycle. A lot of people have over-paid and
soon their expensive investments are gonna plunge in price.
The only "good" thing is a larger proportion of the money
came from existing wealth instead from bank loans. This
leaves those institutions in better condition and will
speed the recovery. As interest rates rise, banks ability
to make money from lending will finally improve again
and interest-paying stocks will be sweeter.
Their collective IQ will not improve alas ... and in ten
years they'll be vastly overextended and counting on
all those real-estate loans to pay of just to cover it.
Oops.
>> If you have stocks, DON'T PANIC. I saw a number of
>> people I know who went all stupid during the last
>> crash and dumped all their stocks - and had to pay
>> all that TAX too. Then a couple months later ...
>
> Yeah, I'm not a good investor, but I'm not dumb enough to panic and
> sell at the bottom.
You'd be amazed to know how many ARE. Most were looking for
flashy (usually tech) stocks that'd go up real fast and they'd
be rich overnight. Those tend to be the first companies to go
bust the minute there's an economic hiccup.
"Get rich slow" is the correct mindset about stock investments.
Pick stable and stick with them - just a little "fun money" for
those possible skyrockets. Shoulda bought MicroSoft way back,
shoulda bought Google, shoulda bought Red Hat ... but you will
never know how those will turn out. 99.9% of those go broke
within just a few years, sometimes months.
ANYway ... I expect stocks to go down for the next year,
partially recover for maybe another 6-12 months, then boom
again. Cutting loose the DNC lead anchor is the first good
step.