In 10 To 20 Years, If Not Earlier, China Will Act To Impose Its Rule Over Taiwan And The U.S. Will Have To Choose Between Defending Taiwan Or Stepping Aside While China Achieves What It Has Wanted To Do For Decades!

[Walt In Seattle]

Taiwan is a strong example of a successful democracy and is the antithesis of the process by which China is governed. For that reason alone, and as is the case in Hong Kong, China's leaders have decided the time is quickly approaching when China must impugn plus eliminate the concept of people participating in their governance by way of democracy rather than being "guided" by government to the extent that they have no role in decisionmaking if they are not in the current leadership itself. China's leadership is dedicated to the philosophy intelligent, strong and capable people will rise through the CCP to power because they understand what can be accomplished in a well-ordered society along with how to accomplish order followed by supremacy for the nation on the World stage while common people are fit only to be led and cared for, not to lead themselves. By the logic of the CCP who probably believe they EXCLUSIVELY know what's best for China, removing democracy from Hong Kong then Taiwan is essential, 1C2S be damned, as it now is in Hong Kong! China's leaders would and will argue democracy is a failed system not long after making sham promises to abide by a 1C2S formula for Taiwan. They'll do so while putting forth the notion only the leadership of China knows how to engineer the rise of China as THE most powerful nation on Earth. Such power is what the CCP craves. ONLY the leadership is thought to have such capability and this thought, of course, is that of China's leadership.

Unfortunately for Taiwan, the U.S. long ago backed itself into a corner on China-Taiwan relations by accepting the PRC as THE government of China and THE representative of Chinese interests in most venues, including the U.N. Could a credible argument have been made that the ROC is the legitimate government of both Taiwan and mainland China? Probably not. So, with China's increased militarization and its intentions clear, it seems we're headed for a bad ending as it pertains to Taiwan. In this context, it's difficult to assert that Taiwan has a right of sovereignty over China's assertion. Thus, advocacy for Taiwan is hopelessly crippled.

Reality bites, bites hard, and reality is that, despite all else, including the terrible fate Taiwan shall eventually face, the U.S. will NOT go nuclear over Taiwan but China's leadership is likely prepared to do so if it's necessary to reunify with Taiwan or go down fighting. I don't like this. But I don't see how it won't happen.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/10/07/faq-taiwan-china-tensions/

https://apnews.com/article/tensions-flare-chinese-flights-near-taiwan-02b30ed449f663cf53ef0782482e35e9

[SevenOverSix]

I fear it's going to be sooner than 10 or 20 years.
Xi is prepping and propagandizing and purging NOW.
His best window is the confused Biden administration.

There's also some threat to Japan ... even Australia.

I don't think his Vietnamese "friends" feel especially
secure either.

And what about India ??? That's already a low-level
shooting war .......

I don't see Taiwan going the way of a D-Day style
invasion though. It'll be progressive, relentless,
pressure instead - external and via agents/agitators
inside. There will be "provocations" followed by
degrees of embargo. Commercial traffic will avoid
Taiwan and not a single shot need be fired. Threaten
sea/air trade routes, choke Taiwan until it's damaged
and confused - then move in to "save" it. Their agents
will have well-placed people BEGGING them for rescue,
making it all OK and acceptable.

[Walt In Seattle]

This is a reasonable summary of current circumstances and history regarding Taiwan. But, of course, there is far more to know than what is mentioned at the link below.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/10/10/taiwan-china-reunification-tsai-ing-wen/

[Byker]

"Walt In Seattle" wrote in message
news:4cca70fb-72d8-4141...@googlegroups.com...
>
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/10/07/faq-taiwan-china-tensions/
>
> https://apnews.com/article/tensions-flare-chinese-flights-near-taiwan-02b30ed449f663cf53ef0782482e35e9

IMHO, China won't invade Taiwan until it needs a public distraction from an
ongoing crisis within the PLA and CCP, not unlike how Argentina invaded the
Falklands when Gen. Galtieri's junta was about to collapse.

Right now most scholars are debating not whether China will explode into
civil war, but how many new republics will it fragment into afterwards:

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/could-china-go-way-USSR

https://www.quora.com/How-will-China-look-if-it-splits-into-smaller-countries

https://www.newindianexpress.com/thesundaystandard/2017/aug/13/china-faces-split-into-seven-parts-1642330.html

https://hongkongfp.com/2019/04/06/dream-china-splits-10-countries-beijing-threat-world-says-dissident-writer-liao-yiwu/

I pity the kids in future grade-school geography
classes who have to memorize the names and
locations of all these new countries: https://tinyurl.com/3cnvwaur

[Walt In Seattle]

On Oct 12, 2021, 10:00:59 AM (PDT), Byker wrote:
> Walt In Seattle wrote::

What planet are you livng on, Byker?

Is China's economy ready to collapse? NO!

Who is surging on TECH development and how much of the World is now dependent on it?

Is Xi's nearly dictatorial power seriously threatened? If yes and credibly so, by WHAT or WHOM?

Is the CCP, functioning in deference to Xi, ready to fall apart? Is it ignored by most of China's population who reject its authority openly or otherwise? If yes, let's see your evidence!

Mostly through wishful thinking, India might like to see and rationaize fragmentation or civil war in China. But then there is reality.

How did North Korea obtain all that fancy new hardware it has tested and/or paraded? From its own people? At best, it seems likely North Korea's weapons development is heavily aided from elsewhere. It comes from the WMD tooth farrie? Kim's new line of rhetoric against the U.S. does not come at a convenient time for China? And while we are preoccupied with Kim........

[SevenOverSix]

China is set to invade Taiwan maybe THIS year.

Xi has been purging dissenters and competitors
for a couple of YEARS now - and imposing his
brainwashing on the kiddies too.

Whatever it is, it's coming SOON.

And Xi KNOWS Joe won't do shit.

No, it won't be a D-Day style invasion.
It'll be a progressive thing. Expect
foreign agents in Taiwan to boost the
unification option. Expect various
levels of trade blockades. Pressure and
more pressure. The more things go to
shit the stronger Xi's agents there will
become.

Eventually, the stooges will INVITE China
to "save" them. It'll all LOOK legal and
above-board. Done deal.

Then the ideocide begins.

[Byker]

"Walt In Seattle" wrote in message

news:f3020d5c-cd13-4795...@googlegroups.com...

>
> What planet are you livng on, Byker?

Planet REALITY, "Walt," or whoever you are...

[Walt In Seattle]

On Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 8:21:04 AM UTC-7, Byker wrote:
> Walt In Seattle wrote:

> > What planet are you livng on, Byker?
> Planet REALITY, "Walt," or whoever you are...

If what you wrote is based on reality, you should be able to back it up with something more than what you've posted. Name your scholoars and list their bonafides along with their observations. Provide a detailed accounting of how China is about to fall apart or IS falling apart. Name and list the uprisings underway as we tupe. Name and list the various factions ready to break away. Demonstrate the PLA is fractured or soon will be. List and name unhappy generals ready to fight a civil war. Show us how Xi is losing his grip and so on..............

[Walt In Seattle]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-says-military-drills-near-taiwan-just-move-2021-10-13/

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/11/asia/china-taiwan-military-intl-hnk/index.html

[Walt In Seattle]

https://www.icrt.com.tw/info_list01.php?&mlevel1=6&mlevel2=12
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
[...] [(US RESEARCH COMPANY TO PUBLISH REPORT ON TAIWAN-CHINA ISSUE) Posted on 2021-10-14 13:11:02 (In Taiwan)] A US-based semiconductor market research company is set to publish an in-depth look at the impact of tensions between Taiwan and China. IC Insights says as of December 2020, Taiwan held the largest share of IC industry capacity of any country or region in the world. And led by TSMC, Taiwan hold the largest share of leading-edge IC capacity at 63-percent, far outstripping South Korea at 37-percent. IC Insights asserts that Taiwan is the world's most important base of IC capacity and production, and China may look to resolve its" inability to produce leading-edge IC devices through reunification with Taiwan by whatever means necessary." The company contends the economies on both sides would suffer greatly in a miltiary takeover of Taiwan, and the question rests on whether China is willing to trade short-term economic pain for the long term advantage of having the biggest share of leading-edge IC production capacity under its control for many years to come. (NS) [...]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Walt In Seattle]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/15/asia/taiwan-invasion-us-china-tensions-intl-dst-hnk/index.html

[Byker]

"Walt In Seattle" wrote in message

news:cd010680-8dad-46a2...@googlegroups.com...

Yeah, sure, have me post shitloads of "peer-reviewed" facts that you
will only refute as "FAKE NEWS", if you bothered to read it at all.

Sorry, twirp, but I'm not taking your "bait"...

[Byker]

"Walt In Seattle" wrote in message

news:cd010680-8dad-46a2...@googlegroups.com...

Yeah, sure, have me post shitloads of "peer-reviewed" facts that you

will only refute as "FAKE NEWS", if you bothered to read them at all.

[Walt In Seattle]

China condemns the U.S. and Canada for the pasage of warships through the strait between Taiwan and China, saying the U.S. and Canada "colluded" to provoke and stir up trouble.....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/17/chinese-military-condemns-us-and-canada-over-warships-in-taiwan-strait

[Walt In Seattle]

On Sunday, October 17, 2021 at 10:13:15 PM UTC-7, Walt In Seattle wrote:
> China condemns the U.S. and Canada for the pasage of warships through the strait between Taiwan and China, saying the U.S. and Canada "colluded" to provoke and stir up trouble.....
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/17/chinese-military-condemns-us-and-canada-over-warships-in-taiwan-strait

Although denied by China, it's likely the PRC tested a hypersonic nuclear-capable missile in August for which the U.S. has no defense. The missile can orbit in space and then descend quickly to its intended target(s). No doubt, this is a weapon developed to deter the U.S. from interfering if/when China decides to take Taiwan by force if force is necessary.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/18/china/china-hypersonic-missile-spacecraft-intl/index.html

https://www.foxnews.com/media/china-missile-test-mccaul-worried-us-intelligence

[SevenOverSix]

It's a good system - fits into a 'gap' between ground
and space defense systems.

We can make our own, quickly, and SHOULD - with plenty
of publicity so Xi doesn't think he's got the one-up.
Claim an accuracy of 100 meters whether it's true or not.

[Walt In Seattle]

Here is the multilayered problem:

(1) Xi is not stupid. If he plans to hold us at bay, he will have other ideas; he'll have or already has other options up his sleeve. We'll eventually discover, if our intelligence community does not presently know, that China is well-prepared for asymetrical warfare using unconventional but effective tactics. Otherwise, China would not take on a threatening posture of the type now evident as it pertainst to Taiwan.

(2) For us, it matters more that we don't have a defense than it does for Xi that China might be without a means for defense as well from an American counterpart. China could go for an all-out preemptive strike and do far more damage to us than we could do to China in return. Mainland China is HUGE and contains many, many, many more people than does the U.S. Thus, the possibility of a full-on retaliatory strike from us may not be enough of an existential threat to deter Xi. But, again, Xi probably has something else up his sleeve or in the works that will either limit our offensive capabilities, neutralizing them before we have a chance to use them, or China may find a way to convince us that, even if we win in hostilities, that win will be a pyrrhic victory plus a pyrrhic victory achieved over an island that is not ours at the cost of American lives. Not to be forgotten is the distraction Noroth Korea can or will present which may allow China some opportunities to better prepare itself for reclaiming or seducing Taiwan. I believe Xi would gladly provide aid to North Korea in that distraction. China has spent a lot of time and effort learning what we can and can not do through hacking and aggressive espionage. They may know how to hit us -- rhetorically, economically, militarily -- in more devastating ways than we'd like to openly admit.

(3) Calculating or intuiting Chinese assessment of acceptable risk and rationality for self-preservation against cultural factors should not come down to calculation of what Ameicans would do in scenario X or Y but what the Chinese will do. In China, there's a lot of pride and cultural context wrapped up in China's sovereignty. It comes in tandem with and as a result of a LONG history from which China has been abused by Western entities who have attempted to take all they could from China for as long as they could. And then there is the bitter history between China and Japan -- Japan being our chief ally in-theater. It all influences how much China will stomach to reclaim Taiwan. For some or many in China, reunification with Taiwan may be a do or die proposition.

[Walt In Seattle]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/18/world/asia/north-korea-ballistic-missile-test-washington.html

[1p166]

The USA could, if extremely motivated, kill pretty much
EVERYBODY in China. There are certain elements that could
be packaged with the nukes that would produce insane,
literally glow-in-the-dark, levels of radioactivity in
the fallout for a few days. There are also a few that
can produce lethal radioactivity for a thousand years
or more - territory-denial weapons. Look up cobalt-60.

This would be the extreme case, but alas it's not
entirely a fictional scenerio these days given Xi's
ambitions and the weakened state of the western
powers. We cannot resist China with conventional
arms anymore so it'd rapidly turn into a nukefest.

Note that the Chinese can also produce fallout-enhanced
weapons. While their inventory is smaller it could still
do absolutely horrendous damage to the USA/Canada/EU.
It's the war nobody but nobody wins.

In short, the term "civilization-ending" comes into play.
Back to the darkest of dark ages. Those weren't fun.
The fruits of civilization - knowledge, technology,
philosophy - are far more volatile than most people
think. They require the energy of civilization to
perpetuate, to preserve against entropy. Even a "short"
gap and it all goes away. Warlords and bandit-kings
and fanatics rule.

Oh well, a few thousand years and they'll start building
sun pyramids - filled with cut-out hearts - again ....

Amazingly (and barely) we survived the old cold war
without getting to this debacle. Bad attack-detection
systems brought us REALLY close though. One Russian
officer was demoted for NOT launching a total retaliation
after his system detected a US missile attack (it was
reflections off of clouds in Montana). The HUMAN
intuited that the picture didn't look quite right ...
but humans are increasingly being replaced by "AI".

[Bruce Jender]

Why even worry about whether the United States would defend Taiwan from
invasion when our own White House has opened up the Mexican border for
anyone from anywhere to invade our own country?

https://globalgulag.us/dhs-insider-exposes-reasonable-fear-migrant-asylum-loophole-goes-public/

--
"Title 8, U.S.C. § 1324(a) defines several distinct offenses related to
aliens. Subsection 1324(a)(1)(i)-(v) prohibits alien smuggling, domestic
transportation of unauthorized aliens, concealing or harboring
unauthorized aliens, encouraging or inducing unauthorized aliens to
enter the United States, and engaging in a conspiracy or aiding and
abetting any of the preceding acts. Subsection 1324(a)(2) prohibits
bringing or attempting to bring unauthorized aliens to the United States
in any manner whatsoever, even at a designated port of entry. Subsection
1324(a)(3)."

Build Back Better means Destroy More Quickly.

"We have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter
fraud organization in the history of American politics." -Joe Biden

https://www.globalgulag.us

https://www.globalgulag.us/globalgulag/index.html

[1p166]

Sorry, but there are even bigger things than "Mexicans"
involved now. Whatever it is, it looks like it will play
out within the next two or three years. The Joe-USA is
impotent, underfunded, senile and DEEPLY in debt. Actually,
all China needs to do is convince a few to stop funding
our debts ... that'd be a disaster, an implosion. No
nukes needed.

After that it'd all be easy ...

[Paul Watson]

Hi Guys, we have in stock the following for you.
They are top quality and are sold at affordable street prices
with 10% discount on bulk orders.
In stock, we have the following:
Valium
Diazepam
Ivermectin
Temazepam
Adderall
Vicodin
Xanax bars
Oxycodone
Lyrica
Cali weed strains(Contact for strains and videos)
Hash
Dab
Coke
and many other at your request
Drop offs in Texas and also swift delivery if not around
Secured commnucation
by Wickr :Vendorvuggs1
Text/Whatsapp:+1 929 900 5143

[Bruce Jender]

You missed my point. Why would Taiwan trust a nation (USA) that is
allowing the invasion of its own "homeland" across one of its own
borders and has military leadership that abandoned enough military
equipment in Afghanistan to arm several nations with advanced weapons
systems to defend it from invasion from a superpower (China) that's
threatening to invade and take over its own territory?

Your flippant response that "there are even bigger things than
'Mexicans' involved now" lacks an appreciation for the significance of
having a "Homeland Security Department" headed by a man who has
dismantled all the apparatus put in place to to carry out that function
/ role.

http://www.cairco.org/news/dhs-insider-exposes-reasonable-fear-migrant-asylum-loophole-goes-public

[Walt In Seattle]

So you charge in here to change the topic of discussion or castigate it in the apparently arrogant assumption of some that, in Donald Trump fashion with Donald Trump style demagoguery in tow, which carries the scent of xenophobia, all issues and concerns for America, as if what happens to Taiwan is something to ignore if it does not accommodate a http://www.cairco.org/ narrative on immigration into America, should come down to CAIRCO's ranking and assessment? If that's your and their point of view, who the HELL are YOU and THEY to impose YOUR and THEIR notion of what should be on others or demean other points of view as if they should not even be expressed or discussed because alternate opinions work against YOUR and THEIR agenda(s) if not occupy space and time YOU and THEY would rather occupy? If that's what you want, isn't it just a bit fascistic? What's off-utting in your approach is that you seem to have an agenda to change the topic so that it can become the means for spewing political propaganada for whatever reason. You don't just characterize the discussion as a mistake, wherein, according to YOU, it does not take into account your view it doesn't matter as long as it does not address or lend credence to your immigration narrative, but you also attack people and make assertions or insinuations as to the sitting presidential administration not too shy from implying that administration is the seat of all political evil and, thus, Americans should be focused on the problem YOU perceive or foist on readers here as though it's the only legitimate issue to be discussed at the moment. I won't express the label I'd like to apply to people who take take this approach as they attempt to hijack or dismantle a discussion. But it should suffice to say it's not a label one should hope to receive.

Although you might like to diminish its importance, what happens to Taiwan has tremendous geopolitical and economic implications. Whatever happens could serve as the basis for a war between the nations of the two largest economies of the World or such could serve as a foreign polcy plus economic earthquake should America decide to sit on the sidelines when/if China acts or indicates it is about to act to force reunification. China taking Taiwan will change the World's economic balance, particularly in tech or tech-dependent industries. The taking of Taiwan will not happen in the absence of China exercising strict control over the SCS at great impact on shipping through SCS waters, that strict control enforced from military installations on artificial islands around which China will assert sovereignty on extended territorial waters. Once China has control over Taiwan and the SCS, I have little doubt China will quickly become the World's economic and military superpower in that their miltary has grown by leaps and bounds along with the quality of it. They've proven they can shoot down satellites; they have their own space program and space station; they have modernized naval assets; they have modern fighter jets; they have hypersonic nuclear-capable missile technology. WE are in danger of falling behind if we haven't already. If we simply sit on the sidelines when China is ready to take Taiwan by force, we will not just LOOK weak. We WILL BE weak because we will have lost economically in A BIG WAY! If we go to war with China over Taiwan, the results, not JUST for the U.S. and China, BUT THE WORLD, shall be devastating. To assert or imply that American immigration ......TRUMPS.... all of this would be to assert BULLSHIT, in MY opinion!!

[Walt In Seattle]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/american-military-taiwan-china-taipei-diplomatic-relations-invasion-11634760999

[Walt In Seattle]

On Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 8:45:48 PM UTC-7, 1p166 wrote:
> The USA could, if extremely motivated, kill pretty much
> EVERYBODY in China. There are certain elements that could
> be packaged with the nukes that would produce insane,
> literally glow-in-the-dark, levels of radioactivity in
> the fallout for a few days. There are also a few that
> can produce lethal radioactivity for a thousand years
> or more - territory-denial weapons. Look up cobalt-60.

I expect the PRC knows well what is theoretically or even practically possible. Yet, I also expect that, if they face this possibility, they will act in advance to develop the means and a plan to disrupt, disable or block such options. They have enough time. They'll take it, especially to learn what we can do as well as how to exploit its flaws. There probably are hypotheticals under consideration now by China and us for preventing the most lethal scenarios from adversaries. But this idea of complete destructin will raise some questions. Would people in the U.S. and China -- peopele in the military and responsible for implementing such scenarios -- be prepared to go that far, to kill up to billions of people and not know if their adversaries won't have the capacity to retaliate in kind? Even if confidence was high that the exchange would be mostly dominated by one side or the other side completely devastated before that side could mount a response, let alone a defense, who could live with that scenario? How will their conscience, their sense of morality, cope with the order when given? Perhaps we're not going there in any event because it would be difficult for the U.S. in particular to manage destruction on such scale without inflicing damage on nearby allies or failing to prevent retaliation against allies who could not defend themselves as well as we could defend ourselves? Not yet discussed here is whether we could handle and HOW we could handle China's main ally, Russia. A nuclear exchange with China would not evoke an exchage with Russia too? Given the potential downsides, is it likely the U.S. will stay on the sidelines when China is ready to act? In a potential war against both Russia and China, wouldn't our losses be far greater than theirs?

[Walt In Seattle]

On Thrsday, President Biden seemed to have ended "Strategic Ambiguity", saying the U.S had a "commitment" to defend Taiwan if China attacks. Shortly afterward, the White House was walking back Biden's unmistakable words. The White House (shall I say?) "clarified". A spokesperson indicated nothing had changed and the Biden Administration is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act which obligates the U.S. to provide the means for Taiwan to defend itself but does NOT obligate or state a commitment for the U.S. to step in and defend Taiwan if China attacks. This incident probably qualifies as another Biden gaffe which, if not quickly waked back, could have provoked a strong reaction from China. Biden should have known better. If he didn't, that's its own serious problem. If he did but decided he could make a politically advantageous statement for a domestic audience then "fix it" later, that would imply an even worse problem while making ironic his warning, also delivered on Thursday, that China's actions set an environment for terrible mistakes.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-taiwan-biden-united-states-defense/

https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-defend-itself-us-reversal-china-stronger-1641741

[Walt In Seattle]

Is the Biden Admisistration provoking China who would not have to be pushed far to start a war over Taiwan or is the Biden Administration simply asking for fair treatement of Taiwan?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/27/taiwan-has-no-right-to-join-un-china-insists-as-us-ratchets-up-tensions

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fight-for-taiwan-could-come-soon-china-navy-defense-11635349097

[1p166]

On 10/27/21 6:23 PM, Walt In Seattle wrote:
> On Saturday, October 23, 2021 at 1:04:26 AM UTC-7, Walt In Seattle wrote:
>> On Thrsday, President Biden seemed to have ended "Strategic Ambiguity", saying the U.S had a "commitment" to defend Taiwan if China attacks.

Look ... what JOE says is totally IRRELEVANT. It's
what his puppetmasters DO. They'll plop the appropriate
documents in front of him and say "Sign ...".

And lots of them are pro-Maoists.

The Taiwan PM says the "believes" that the US will
protect her country. She's deluded in the extreme.

If Taiwan can make nukes - 1940s tech - they should
do so NOW, rapidly. Might not prevent an invasion,
but it'd avenge it - take the CCP down several notches.
MAYbe they'd even have the sense to oust Xi.

[%]

this is something for trump the president

[BeamMeUpScotty]

Taiwan should vote to become the 51 state of the United Ststes.
--
That's karma,

Democrats attempt at mandated assimilation is futile, a successful
resistance is inevitable.


*We don't need to test for the WUHAN virus we need to test for a*
*suppressed immune system* and the people with immune system problems
need the VIRUS PASSPORTS, NOT the rest of us who are healthy. And it's
not only the elderly who have low functioning immune systems, also
people with HIV/AIDS and others, which may be why those groups have the
most issues with the virus and/or the vaccine.
https://www.brighteon.com/1a421368-d95b-4aa9-9c42-01a8c91ed41e

[Siri Cruise]

In article <D9qdnWkGo_dtvOf8...@earthlink.com>,

1p166 <z24ba6.net> wrote:

> And lots of them are pro-Maoists.

That must disappoint the CCP and PRC since they are anti-maoists.

> The Taiwan PM says the "believes" that the US will
> protect her country. She's deluded in the extreme.

Nothing like talking up a war to give the stock markets a buzz.

> If Taiwan can make nukes - 1940s tech - they should
> do so NOW, rapidly. Might not prevent an invasion,
> but it'd avenge it - take the CCP down several notches.
> MAYbe they'd even have the sense to oust Xi.

White nationalism meet chinese nationalism. Does it still look
pretty?

--
:-<> Siri Seal of Disavowal #000-001. Disavowed. Denied. Deleted. @
'I desire mercy, not sacrifice.' /|\
Discordia: not just a religion but also a parody. This post / \
I am an Andrea Doria sockpuppet. insults Islam. Mohammed

[Walt In Seattle]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/taiwan-china-biden-tsai/2021/10/28/89f040a6-3797-11ec-9662-399cfa75efee_story.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
[...] [Published Today at 4:39 a.m. EDT] TAIPEI, Taiwan — Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen confirmed that American troops have been training the Taiwanese military, as tensions between Beijing and the self-governing island intensify over China’s fears of Taipei’s evolving relationship with Washington. Tsai, who has ruled Taiwan as head of the Democratic Progressive Party since 2016, told CNN in an interview published on Thursday that U.S. military personnel were in Taiwan as part of a training program. She declined to give details of the numbers of troops involved. The rare public acknowledgment, which comes after the Wall Street Journal reported that Marines have been in Taiwan for at least a year, drew an angry response from the Chinese state-backed tabloid Global Times, which accused Tsai of “pushing the mainland to decide to resolve the Taiwan question by force.” [...]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Walt In Seattle]

According to a Taiwan official, China internally debated attacking the Pratas Islands which are controlled by Taiwan. According to that same official, it was decided that if such attack occurs, it won't happen before 2024.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-has-debated-attacking-taiwan-controlled-islands-taiwan-official-says-2021-11-04/

[Walt In Seattle]

China's Xi Jinping has a message for President Biden regarding Taiwan......

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-xi-expected-prioritise-taiwan-issue-biden-discussion-2021-11-15/

[Walt In Seattle]

President Biden says independence for Taiwan is Taiwan's decision while he disclaims encouraging Taiwan to declare independence. At the same time, a new report indicates China is now capable or nearly capable of invading Taiwan militariily.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/16/politics/biden-china-taiwan/index.html

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2021-11-17/chinese-military-at-or-near-ability-to-invade-taiwan-us-agency-concludes

[Walt In Seattle]

https://rss.soundon.fm/rssf/45bd1bd2-842f-499c-9993-f10c0d68fcb7/feedurl/fa50d289-9244-418d-9e5c-7d632ad7a4bd/rssFileVip.mp3?timestamp=1637896294122

[Walt In Seattle]

Reposted From Another Discussion Topic

President Biden says it could be very, very difficult for Russia to invade Ukraine while Secretary of State Blinken tells China there will be consequences if China invades Taiwan. Both Biden and Blinken have, in effect, delivered a warning and left an inplication the U.S. will act in response to or as an impediment to invasion. This could be a serious verging on disastrous error. Unless the Biden Administration is prepared to start or otherwise fight World War III or is OK with diminished credibility in foreign policy, this rhetoric is counter-productive.

Diminished credibility would be derived from empty rhetoric or bluster otherwise known as "writing checks your ass can't cash". To imply or openly assert difficulties that should deter or to speak of consequences that later do not occur or are, for all intent and purposes, ineffective, makes you weak in the eyes of others if not the entire World. It runs against the time-honored advice that you "speak softly but carry a big stick". And, if you carry that stick, you better be prepared to use it effectivly with full understanding for what is likely to come as a result of using that stick in terms of whether you'd reach an intended goal. In other words, say what you mean and mean what you say with full intention to follow through with any implication or promise of action if you have any hope not to be seen as, in the words of the Chinese, a "paper tiger". But, if you intend to act, be DAMN CERTAIN you can actually do what you intend to do without devastating blowback. Finally, know your end-game and have a plan you're sure will accomplish what you intend to accomplish without so much damage suffered at home that any victory or achieved goal would be hollow.

Xi and Putin are partners every bit as much as are Xi, Putin and North Korea's Kim. Both have hopes for crafting a World in which they can wield more power. On common ground, they both have the advantage of cultural support for retrieving that which they believe has always belonged. They benefit as well from the energy arising by way of the local expectation their star is rising as that of the West is falling. Both are also masters in geopolitical chess and one is so bold as to pursue and eliminate his adversaries in other regions of the World.

There may be no accident or unintended coincidence in the ramping up of tensions over Taiwan and Ukraine simultaneously. But... even if circumstances have occurred without joint intent to this point in time, rest assured that, seeing an advantage in an alliance that demonstrates the West is vulnerable, Putin and Xi most likely will take or already have taken that advantage to the greatest extent they can.

I doubt Putin or Xi are afraid of a World War. They've been preparing for conflict over a period of decades. Joined together and after modernizing their military, they may be confident they can now take on the West or at least persuade the West that to tangle with them in conventional or nuclear combat would be too much of an existential threat for the West, including the U.S. That's a potential or actual problem of which Biden should be aware and allow to color his decisions.

It seems, despite rhetoric from Biden and Blinken, the U.S. and the West are very risk-averse. And they should be! If we're talking to nuclear-armed adversaries about "difficulties" and "consequences" arising from invasion, the West has to know or come to know that economic sanctions or the threat thereof will NOT deter; they won't even come close. Yet, to act more aggressively or militarily could and probably would escalate to cyber warfare then a nuclear exchange that NO ONE WANTS and should not want.

There are hard questions to be answered and answered right away. How far are we willing to go in the U.S. and West to ensure Taiwan and Ukraine remain free of authoritarian rule? If we're in for a penny's worth of sanctions but they don't deter or reverse actions, are we then in for a pound of war? Is there and can there be some middle ground? Have we yet explored the answers to that last question? Who is so ready in the West as to risk a nuclear exchange? I doubt anyone really is. But I believe China's leaders are willing to risk it, in part because they probably have plans to mitigate damage or prevent it by preemptively neutralizing capabilities in the West, and Putin may believe his nuclear arsenal can easily wipe out ours before we could respond. From my perch, it seems the better path is to resolve the Ukraine and Taiwan issues diplomatically. We have to find a way because the other way is too horrible to contemplate. But talk of "consequences" and "difficulties", if they'd be something with more bite than economic sanctions, moves us in the wrong direction.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-us-biden-ukraine/31593512.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/move-china-invade-taiwan-terrible-consequences-antony-blinken-says-rcna7625

There are lots of strategic reasons why Vladimir Putin has incentive not to allow Ukraine to slide into a Western alliance. But there are stronger cultureal reasons and they may compel Putin to take bolder action as well as go with greater risk than he otherwise might have without the cultural factors.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/05/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-troops.html

On cultural ground, think about the striking similarities between Russia's relatiionship with Ukraine and China's relationship with Taiwan. On both sides in both instances, there is a "can't live with them; can't live without them" dynamic. It therefore seems reasonable to expect Putin and Xi would look at each others circumstances with some measure of empathy and/or sympathy. Think about where this could go, if it hasn't gone there already.