I'm really embarrassed at how long it has taken me to get around to posting this.
No excuses tonight, just a final wrap-up of the on-topic parts of your post.
On Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 6:40:56 PM UTC-4, Burkhard wrote:
<snip superflous attributions>
> > > > >On Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 1:35:36?AM UTC-7, jillery wrote:
> > > > >> The following is a link to a 55-minute lecture by Jack Szostak,
> > > > >> describing the current status of his team's efforts to identify
> > > > >> plausible processes of abiogenesis. He follows his lecture with a
> > > > >> 30-minute Q&A with the audience.
> > > > >>
> > > > >> Some of the highlights of the lecture include demonstrations of how
> > > > >> lipid bilayers abiotically self-assemble, grow, and divide,
> > > > >> nonenzymatic RNA duplication, abiotic substrates for protein
> > > > >> synthesis, and functions of the first peptides.
<big snip, including text of yours that I've addressed before>
I've addressed the first two sentences below also, but I'll be giving a different slant
on them and then go on to everything else that I have left in below.
> Now me, I've always admitted that I'm a layperson when it comes to biology, so what would
> I know. But I have spend quite a bit of time among scientists who also try to distinguish
> between design and natural causes, and strangely enough they too would do all the things
> you find objectionable below.
You seem to be proceeding from the incorrect premise that I am trying to distinguish between
designed and not designed events in OOL. Au contraire, I want to avoid talking about designers of things
whose very existence -- indeed whose *possible* existence is a mystery at our present state of knowledge.
> They must be all doing it wrong then. So for instance in an
> arson investigation, the initial question would be if the fire was the result of an accident or
> planned. We'd try to recreate the scene as best as we can in, and quite intentionally with
> varying degrees of correspondence to the hypothesised initial conditions.
At our present state of knowledge, OOL is more like the case of two primitive hunters
coming across a pride of lions devouring a carcass which they are unable to
identify from a distance. Not wishing to risk their lives by getting closer, they return to their village
saying that they don't know whether the carcass is that of a human or that of some
other large animal.
For the carcass, substitute the state of the protocells before the genetic code came
into being. Was that before or after DNA replication was fully in place? It does
make a difference what the next few steps will be like.
[Do I need to explain the concept of "genetic code" to you? It is very much misused by some people
who don't know enough biochemistry. If you are not sure, never mind, just read the next paragraph.]
Or take it further back: at what stage did the genetic material come to be
completely inside a cell membrane? Was it before or after the longest RNA strings [1]
reached a length of 20? 100? And how did the genetic material move from
one ur-cell [2] to another? Could there possibly have been protein-lined pores
like modern cells have, or was there some unknown other liner of the pores
that was able to open or close?
[1] I should probably play it safe and say "nucleotide strings" since
there has been some theorizing that RNA has some drawbacks
and perhaps the strings should be of PNA or some other kinds of
nucleotides to begin with. If this is greek to you, never mind: there
are enough other unknowns to worry about.
[2] There is an article in the Talk.origins Archive that talks about ur-cells.
They are hypothetical precursors of cells, but tiny compared to the smallest bacteria.
It's been a long time since I've looked at that article, and it may take a while to find it.
> If e.g. the test is
> if two adjacent materials would have allowed the fire to spread, ignoring for the moment
> that it would have rained on the day makes the reconstruction easier, and still gives valuable
> information if it shows no transfer was possible. The asymmetry between falsification
> and confirmation sees to that.
In that "further back" scenario, it is hard to tell just what simplifications to make.
But the worst part of it is, that we haven't a clue as to what the "chemical
composition" of those nucleotide strings might have been. By that I mean the exact
sequences of nucleotides [we have a "4-letter alphabet here] that comprised it.
> A second reason is that the initial conditions are also only ever hypothesised, based
> e.g. on witness statements or the weather report. These could be wrong or misleading.
That's one reason I kept things so simple in that "primitive hunters" scenario,
so that this would not be an obstacle to a report to the others in their village,
but the main reason was to do justice to how little we know about OOL.
> So finding "a" reconstruction of a natural pathway is valuable, even if it only holds for
> conditions that contradict the hypothesised initial conditions. Same I'd say with
> abiogenesis: If we find a pathway from molecules to life,
That "if" is something that we are maybe two centuries away from.
Never mind if it is THE pathway or not. We don't have a clue
as to what *any* pathway MIGHT look like. So it will only
be long after our deaths that OOL researchers will be ready
to tackle the following questions:
> but one that requires conditions
> other than those we think held when life was first formed on earth,
We are also decades if not centuries away from figuring what those
required conditions might be. There may even have been so
many chance occurrence that we might have to give up on
whether any were "required."
> can mean one of
> several things:
>
> - this is not how life originated on earth
Barring a decision that panspermia [either directed or undirected] was OOLOE
[Origin Of Life ON Earth], in which case we just leave off "on earth", researchers
in the next century or two will be happy if they can just get a scenario, and only
then start wondering whether this is how it started.
> - life did originate this way, but our theory about the "when" was wrong, it happened at
> another time when other conditions held
I doubt that this will excite researchers to more than 5% of the intensity that
the search for a possible scenario did. If by some miracle they manage
to come up with the RIGHT sequence of events, then the chances of finding outside funding
for "when" it happened will be nil.
Besides, we have a tolerably good fix on when it happened already: 3500 million years ago,
give or take a couple of hundred million.
> - life did originate in this way, and at this time - we were simply wrong in our theories about
> early earth.
The same two paragraphs I wrote about the second possibility hold here, *mutatis mutandis*.
>
> Same issue with the use of "artificial selection" In any reconstruction, we try to achieve a known
> goal - in our case a fire that creates a pattern that we can then compare with the pattern at the
> crime scene. There is nothing paradoxical or untoward about it - when reconstructing a single historical
> event under laboratory conditions, inevitably we know and direct it towards a predefined endpoint. The
> only thing needed is to document all the design choices that went into the experiment, and then
> if necessary carry out follow up tests to see if they can be removed.
Now this much is on target: Szostak and co. had a predetermined goal of a ribozyme that
could fit an ATP molecule. And the way they went about it was, I believe, the right way.
But the difficulty of even *identifying* a *candidate* for The First Holy Grail of OOL --
a ribozyme replicase [3] -- is immeasurably more difficult than this. And the
path to the Holy Grail under primitive earth conditions without any intelligent
tampering is far more formidable than even *that* difficulty.
[3] Defined in a post that I did today, in reply to a post by Ron Dean:
https://groups.google.com/g/talk.origins/c/yl0TJZ0nueg/m/QD6n3mIXAgAJ
Re: Origin of Life Challenge
> So we'll nudge e.g. a candle towards the curtain, to see if the pattern from the burning curtain matches what
> we found on the scene. If not then the "wind blew over a candle" hypothesis is falsified. If yes, then and only then
> do we have to check if the candle could have fallen over by itself, or needed someone to push it the way we
> did in the experiment. And if we find the human interference is necessary, then that tells us a lot
> about the perpetrator/designer, what they did, when and how (here: threw a candle at the curtain)
Like I wrote above, I'm not ready to speculate about what any designers might have done, and may never be,
given our state of ignorance.
> All of this is pretty straightforward experimental design - and all experiments are after all designed.
> So it seems to me that what Szostak does is not just perfectly legit, it is what any putative "ID scientists"
> should do too, to see where exactly, how and in what way. with what tools the designer interfered.
These are two utterly different ways of proceeding, and I'm only interested in what Szostak and
others like him are able to achieve.
> Strangely
> enough, not a single one seems to care.
I care, and care deeply about what Szostak is trying to do. Maybe you could persuade
Athel or Bill Rogers or Lawyer Daggett to care about discussing OOL.
You have an excellent relationship with these three, don't you?
Peter Nyikos
Professor, Dept. of Mathematics -- standard disclaimer--
PS I've snipped a bunch of text about which you didn't comment,
and about which I've completely changed my mind insofar as
they were criticisms of Szostak and company. They are truly
on the right path, but that path needs dozens of generations of
researchers to achieve the goal of explaining how OOL might have happened, IMO.