El martes, 16 de abril de 2013 23:57:05 UTC+1, Paul J Gans escribi�:
Ok. I think this recession must be different that the one in
30's or others that came later. In general a recession occurs,
I am just guessing, when a limited number of speculators push
most people into debt, making them to buy a shit or other.
Like very high pitched shares in Wall Street, or the recent
bubble of Real State.
There had been other smaller bubbles before. But I think this
crisis is different, when you see that the perspectives of oil
prices are at rising. This must be coupled with a giant like
China, that has already some over 100 million cars, and going
up. Not even keeping the salaries of US workers on a level
with the Chinese level, will be western nations able to compete,
in the global markets to buy oil.
Think that only 10 years ago, the oil cost $30 a gallon. Now Brent
oil cost $100 and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is around $90
In spite of the crisis, that started officially in 2007/2008 the
average rise of oil has been like 11.6% on average.
You can calculate it yourself. It passed from 30 to 90 that is
it multiplied by 3 then 10^(log 3/10)= 1.116 take out 1 and you
get .116 that is 11.6 percent.
Then, I think this shit of the exhaustion of oil will become a
serious threat to the near future, and to get out of this crisis.
Remember that the economic depression of the 30's stopped because
a great war about to start. Then, the government started to borrow
money like crazy to pay the industry to start working again. If
it were not by the war, the economic crisis would had lasted to the
present times. What is my argument? Well, if people had not money
to expend on consumer shit, nobody with money would dream of earning
a buck by investing some dollars. You have to shower money over the
people fort the people start to buy things. Then, when you see the
people have money to expend you can start anew some venture at
producing some consumerism shit for people to buy. Like this computer.
What is now the difference? Two main variables. I have mentioned
them already. Salaries in China, and the price of the barrel of oil.
Unless the discover a whole pacific ocean full of oil, we will buried
in a pool of shit till this civilization would blow up in pieces.
Then, I had the suspicion that this crisis had been made on purpose,
to prepare us to exhaustion of oil. It started buy ruining the local
economies, importing goods from China. Then, the retailer chains
had ruin the old smaller retailers, by importing cheap goods from
China, while the old retailers were buying goods manufactured in
the US. It was a sort of pushing us fast to plunge in the freezing
waters of the next oil crisis. We are already on our way there.
A similar case occurred in Europe.
Have a different analysis to explain how the present crisis could
soon end? You must have some logical device to explain this
crisis will end in... as soon as... lets us say in... ten years?
Eridanus