Some of their arguments may be mainstream, but others are clearly
intended to appeal to YECs. Now Gauger is almost certainly not a YEC
herself and may in some cases just be tossing red meat to her perceived
audience. Biocomplexity isn't a real journal, after all. But if we
accept the article as sincere, the authors are clearly creationists,
though likely old-earth, progressive creationists rather than YECs. They
are clearly entertaining, if they do not quite present as favored, the
hypothesis of separate creation of an original human pair. This is by no
means mainstream science.
>>>>> The California condor came close to this point a half century or so ago.
>
>
>>>>> Their article is very technical, but this much is easy to see on a first skimming.
>>>>> The first possibility is what a literal reading of the blurb, and of Genesis 2 (NOT Genesis 1!) gives.
>
>>>>> The second is very different, and is the one I think most likely if indeed there was such a "bottleneck".
>>>>>
>>>>> How about you?
>>>
>>> You ducked the question. Don't you realize how difficult it is to argue for the first possibility?
>
>> It's difficult to argue for either,
>
> At first I thought you were ducking the question again; but then
> I read further down, and saw that you found it very easy to "argue" [read: blatantly allege]
> that the first possibility is impossible without invoking supernatural creation.
>
> Did you actually THINK about what you wrote in EITHER place?
I'm assuming that was a rhetorical question.
>> and the data Gauger used would not
>> distinguish them.
>
> After your amazing (yet poorly supported) about-face below, this has
> become a purely academic afterthought.
There is no about-face.
>>>> Genetically speaking, the two cases are identical.
>>>
>>> That's a pseudoscientific sentence. Here's a scientific one:
>>>
>>> "If we confine ourselves to genetics, the two cases are indistinguishable."
>>>
>>> Note, "indistinguishable," not "identical." You wouldn't say,
>>> "Speaking of naked-eye optics, Alpha Centauri A and Alpha Centauri B are identical."
>
>> I don't think the two sentences are at all comparable, but since we
>> agree on the intended meaning I see no reason to belabor this.
>
> I do: you are contradicting the intended meaning below.
Since the intended meaning was mine, I don't see how you can know better
than I. And I say there is no contradiction, just clarification.
>>> The two possibilities are easily distinguishable, given the right fossils.
>>> In fact, fossils have been used for something like a century and a half
>>> to discredit the first possibility. [See also the Quote of the Day at the end, from even earlier.]
>
>> You will note that I have also pointed to genetic data that
>> distinguishes the scenarios, just not data used by Gauger.
>
> You've contradicted the intended meaning of your earlier sentence,
>
> "Genetically speaking, the two cases are identical."
Again, you appear not to know the intended meaning, which is that the
two cases can't be distinguished using the data that the paper
mentioned. This in fact may be the reason they avoided use of outgroups
by using the folded data.
>> Let's face it, a comparison of any part of the human and chimp genomes kills off
>> the first option,
>
> You weren't facing it above, quite the contrary; and now that you are claiming
> the opposite, you aren't facing the biology that you learned in graduate school or before.
Again: you are misreading what I said.
> These genomes have undergone separate evolution for millions
> of years; that has nothing to do with the alleged impossibility
> of a mutation occurring millions of years ago in two hominini whose descendants
> only interbred with each other successfully.
That's quite a vague scenario, but you seem to be talking about instant
reproductive isolation due to two parallel mutations that happened in
one male and one female simultaneously, who then mated with each other.
If that isn't what you're proposing, I apologize. But that scenario is
wack, and it's not in any way what the paper's scenario is.
> Are you alert enough to grasp the significance of the word "successfully"?
Shouldn't that have a "nudge nudge, wink wink" in there somewhere?
>> which is all about fiat creation of Adam and Eve.
>
> I'd love to see whether you can intelligently argue for this.
Already have, but further detail will follow.
>>>> But a careful reading
>>>> of the paper will show that Gauger is most interested in the case of a
>>>> population of two with no precursors.
>
> I glossed over "with no precursors" on a first reading.
> I saw no hint of that anywhere in the article.
> It paints you into a corner which you might not be able to wiggle out of below.
You appear to have glossed over a lot in that paper too. Read more
carefully next time. More below.
>>> I'd like to see the reasoning (or wishful thinking) behind what you say about "a careful reading,"
>>> and why you credit Gauger with the alleged "most interest."
>
>> I'd like you to try reading what the article says.
>
> You are being completely unresponsive here, and I'm calling your bluff.
> Tell me on which page and column you read signs of sympathy with creationism.
Pages, columns. Keep reading.
>>> Wishful thinking is obviously behind the "created" in your next sentence:
>
>> Have you read the article?
>
> Have you? let's see whether you fold on my calling your bluff.
>
>
>>>> This is an attempt to legitimize
>>>> the scientific plausibility of an original, created pair.
>>>
>>> You are mind-reading one of the co-authors in a most crass way.
>>> Even if one or both of them were most interested in the the first alternative,
>>> a more likely motivation is that they had already co-authored at least two
>>> earlier papers on the same general subject.
>>>
>>> You evidently missed references 20 and 21 in your "careful reading" of the paper.
>
>
>> There's a common motivation for all those.
>
> The irony of you alleging a motivation here spans a dozen years of interaction with you.
>
>
> Next, you bring baseless, trumped-up charges against me, and probably against
> the authors -- both of them.
>
>> Why are you so anxious to
>> ignore the authors' creationism. I direct your attention to references
>> 17-19.
>
> If you have become so simple-minded that you think referencing creationist works makes one a creationist,
> you may need to contemplate quitting talk.origins before you embarrass yourself further.
You will note that the creationist works in question are used as support
for one of the two hypotheses. I submit that no real scientist would
cite creationist literature (and biblical YEC literature at that) in
support of anything other than what creationists say, and what
creationists say is only very rarely relevant to any science. And it's
necessarily in support of a separate creation scenario. That's what
"primordial couple" means, and note that it's contrasted with a
"bottneleck from a previously evolving large population". If you read
for comprehension, that means that the primordial couple are not
previously evolving or descended from a large population. That's on the
first page. But there's much more.
The study finds a single couple (bottleneck or creation) possible as
recently as 500ka, but the authors are anxious to push that much more
recently so as to fit creation. Even in the abstract, " With only minor
modifications of our parsimonious model assumptions, we suggest that a
single-couple origin 100kya, or more recently, is possible." Oddly
enough, it actually isn't possible. More red meat.
The single couple origin (SCO) is explicitly and consistently contrasted
with a bottleneck. (Your version of apparent instant speciation is a
bottleneck.)
Page 4: "There is also the further possibility that the original pair
were instantiated with only helpful or neutral variation, and no harmful
recessive mutations, and thus might not see any inbreeding depression
even if the population started small."
What does "instantiated" mean here? Is that unclear?
Page 4: "If a model with a first couple is true, when seen through the
lens of evolutionary theory, any such primordial variation would be
misinterpreted as being due to ancient mutations."
Note: the variation in a "first couple" is not due to prior mutations.
It's new; no ancestors. This is driven home on the next page in Figure
5, which shows the original 4 alleles at each locus presenting the
illusion of ancestors that never existed. "If the model with a founding
generation is correct, the chromosome segments of the founding
generation have no further ancestry, and then the shaded lines above
them represent non-existing ghost lineages." This is not a founding
generation as in "founder effect"; those alleles would have ancestors.
This is de novo creation of genomes.
I could go on at length, but it seems OK to stop there. If you demand
further evidence, it's abundant in the rest of the paper. Maybe you
could find some of it yourself. I know you desperately want your ID
heroes not to be religiously motivated creationists, but I'm afraid that
most of them are, and in friendly territory, as Biocomplexity is, they
are often explicit about it. As here. You need to accept that.