It's nice to see a response to me by you, Abner. I was just about to comment
on your own account of why you participate here, but that can wait.
On Tuesday, August 29, 2023 at 5:55:19 PM UTC-4, Abner wrote:
> Peter wrote:
> > The "fine tuning" of the fundamental constants of our universe forces atheists
> > [and all people who think deeply of the ultimate questions of our existence]
> > to choose between a multiverse containing an inconceivably large number of universes,
> > and a Designer of our physical universe.
> I'm not so sure about that - it has the odor of a false dilemma to me;
It is one, technically. Did you look at what I wrote about the following third
possibility before you deleted it?
"What is not tenable intellectually is the opening sentence of _Cosmos_, by Carl Sagan:
"The Cosmos is all there is or ever was or ever will be." It says in effect: "Our < 14 billion year old universe
is the incredibly lucky winner of a one-time, never to be repeated lottery with only one winning ticket
out of > 10 raised to the power of the number of electrons in our universe."
And note, in The World According to Carl Sagan, there is no possibility of any other
universe coming into existence in the whole of reality. Is this something which
sits well with you?
> but the idea
> of an infinite or very large number of universes has some interesting possibilities to it.
> Have you read "Before the Big Bang" by Laura Mersini-Houghton? It argues for a
> merger of quantum mechanics and Big Bang theory in a way that leads to the conclusion
> that our type of universe, while not the only type of universe that could come into
> existence, would be a highly probable type of universe.
I haven't read it, but the concept of "type of universe" is quite ambiguous.
More importantly: the Big Bang theory is a highly sophisticated application
of general relativity, *inter alia*. As you may know, Einstein tried to find
a unified field theory incorporating gravity with the other forces -- electromagnetic,
nuclear, weak -- but he failed, and no one else has succeeded since his day.
So intricate is the Big Bang theory that at one point it was called into question
as a result of an announcement by Japanese experimenters that the background radiation
deviated from the curve of black body radiation. This is the background radiation of ca. 3 degrees Kelvin
whose discovery first seemed to produce victory of Big Bang over
Hoyle's steady state theory. Fortunately for Big Bang, this particular announcement could
not be duplicated. However, it took the COBE satellite to gather enough
data to show that the entire spectrum of the background radiation fit the
black body spectrum closely enough.
That data itself required many months of gathering, and until the results came in,
Hoyle and company were getting optimistic about the Big Bang being wrong.
This was not the only problem, either; there were others, but they too
were laid to rest in the eyes of almost all cosmologists by the COBE data.
>They then looked for ways
> that the idea could be tested - leaving possible marks on our universe as a result of
> quantum interference before the universe had expanded very far - and tried to test
> the idea. They got some interesting results from the testing as well ... a lot of the
> features their ideas predict are seen in our universe.
>
> I'm not a devotee of the idea of infinite universes, but I found her ideas (and those of
> her colleagues) a lot more interesting than the "every different possibility leads to a
> whole new universe" version of infinite universes.
> > By "fine tuning" is meant the incredibly small tolerance of the fundamental constants
> > for the existence of life, and even more so for intelligent life.
> Now that argument I find to be rather specious. We have enough trouble determining
> exactly what is needed for life to occur in our universe under our physical rules.
I see that you have not read Martin Rees's _Just Six Numbers_. Take the simplest,
called N. It is the ratio of the repulsion of protons to each other to the gravitational
force pulling them together. It is about 10^36 -- 1 with 36 zeros after it. If it were
"only" 10^30, anything as large as ourselves would be crushed out of existence.
Worse yet, the typical lifetime of a star would be around 10,000 years. That is
a ridiculously short time for life to evolve to produce forms of our intelligence.
As Rees put it more elegantly:
""Instead of living for ten billion years, a typical star would live for about 10,000 years. ... exhaust[ing] its energy before even the first steps in organic evolution had got under way."
> Figuring out the probability of life occurring under alternate physical rules strikes me
> as stretching far beyond even our current level of knowledge.
How well does the picture I gave, attested to by the Astronomer Royal of England,
and a Professor of Physics at Cambridge University when Rees wrote that book,
sit with you?
> I've seen a number of
> analyses of the probability of Earth-like life occurring under alternate physical rules,
> and I generally find those to be a bit beyond what we can say (given that we can't
> really even calculate it under our rules, doing it under alternate rules strikes me as
> beyond our abilities). But calculating the probabilities of *any* form of life under
> *any* rules? I've seen a lot of hand-waving, where some people end up deciding
> that it is basically impossible, some people end up deciding that it is basically inevitable,
> and anywhere in between, depending on which arbitrary assumptions were chosen.
I've given you a source that you can peruse at leisure; how about giving me one?
I've seen articles in Skeptical Inquirer that purport to show what you are saying,
but with so much disagreement, why would you put any store by any of them?
> And they usually seem to choose the assumptions that lead to the results they want
> to fall out at the end of the calculation ...
That is so far from Rees's highly consistent and well informed reasoning, that
I think you are reading speculation that is a waste of time. And he is not alone:
the world-class physicist and cosmologist Paul Davies deduces many of the same
things in _The Goldilocks Dilemma_. But it is a more difficult read, because it
ranges over many other ideas, so I recommend Rees's book for a first look.
> IMO such calculations are ideology, not
> really math or science, and will remain so until we know a lot more about how
> universes come into being than we currently know (which is perilously close to
> nothing IMO).
> At this point I would say "We don't know yet" is by far a better answer than the
> results of any calculation done by any mathematician. If you can get any
> results you want out of the calculation just by adjusting the numbers, the
> calculations are worthless. This particular question is far, far more difficult
> than solving the odds of abiogenesis on Earth, and we are far from even
> being able to solve that much simpler case.
>
> If you think we can do such calculations, please calculate the odds of life occurring
> in a universe which comes out with four spacial dimensions.
Rees gives the answer that Newton may have figured out already:
planetary orbits would be completely unstable under the inverse-cube
law that would result from four spatial dimensions. The slightest perturbation
would either send a planet crashing into its "sun," or speeding out into the
cold void between the stars.
Mind you, there are some theories about there being ten or eleven spatial
dimensions, but the extra ones above 3 are sub-microscopically small. Rees
spends a bit of time on these theories and their relation with hypothetical superstrings.
>Not "life as we know
> it", but anything that could reasonably be thought of as life. Please state your
> assumptions and show your work. If you don't want to waste the time on
> it, just think how useful proving the odds would be for coming up with a
> really neat article for a mathematics journal.
Nobody would want an article that "reinvents the wheel" of planetary orbits.
> You don't have to show it to me ...
> this is really more for your to try for yourself. How would you even set it up?
>
> Until people can really do this sort of thing and not get arbitrary answers,
> I will continue to stick with "We don't know yet" as my answer on this question.
I hate to burst your bubble, but you have a lot of reading to do.
Peter Nyikos
Professor, Dept. of Mathematics
Univ. of South Carolina -- standard disclaimer--
http://people.math.sc.edu/nyikos