Anyone using entrepreneurship to create the change they want to see in the world will find a wealth of thought-provoking material, expert advice and practical techniques in these pages and on the accompanying website: www.effectuation.org
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Anyone using entrepreneurship to create the change they want to see in the world will find a wealth of thought-provoking material, expert advice and practical techniques in these pages and on the accompanying website: www.effectuation.org
Sarasvathy mentions that effectual reasoning is the opposite of causal reasoning, which is taught at most business schools. Normally, we learn that we should have a detailed strategy with a clearly defined end goal and a clear description of the milestones we need to reach so as to get there. The two types of reasoning have value for different types of projects:
We know from over two decades of research that entrepreneurial expertise consists in heuristics of nonpredictive control, grouped under the rubric of effectuation (Sarasvathy, 2009). The principles of effectuation allow entrepreneurs to act under multiple uncertainties. Moreover, the effectual process logically implies a high probability of innovation, while keeping losses within the control of entrepreneurs and their stakeholders. This vitiates the taken-for-granted relationship between high risk and high reward.
Conventional wisdom about entrepreneurs being risk-takers is not accurate. In fact, the familiar relationship between risk and reward speaks to investor behavior rather than how entrepreneurs act and the lessons they learn. This does not mean that risk-taking is unimportant to entrepreneurship. Instead, it means we need to pay attention to differences between risk-taking and uncertainty-bearing. All individuals, risk loving, risk neutral, and risk averse can learn to tackle uncertainty through effectual approaches. In analyzing markets and states from an effectual perspective, it is therefore important not to confound investor behavior with entrepreneurial behavior.
I undertake a careful analysis below to show that states, through their representatives, elected or otherwise, tend to act more like causal investors who try to predict the future to justify risky bets than effectual entrepreneurs who eschew or at least minimize the use of predictive information. This may seem counterintuitive, since one would expect states to lead the way under uncertainty. Yet both historical evidence and the analysis below will show why effectual entrepreneurs are necessary in tackling uncertainty, even in cases usually argued for in the purview of public, nonprofit, or governmental action.
Bird-in-hand principle: Be means-driven rather than goal-driven. In other words, begin with things already within your control, instead of chasing means you do not have to achieve some predetermined goal. The canonical example here is cooking based on a recipe for a preselected dish (causal) vs. cooking based on what is available in the kitchen and garden, even if that means having to substitute ingredients or cook up something for which there exists no recipe at all (effectual).
Crazy quilt principle: Allow stakeholder self-selection. Instead of predicting and targeting particular stakeholders who can help achieve predetermined goals (causal), effectuators are open to working with anyone and everyone who self-selects into the venture by making actual commitments for the opportunity to shape the goals of the venture (effectual). In other words, those who come on board have a say in where the venture is headed, rather than the goals of the venture determining whom to invite on board.
Lemonade principle: Leverage (effectual), rather than avoid (causal) contingencies. Even when things outside your control inject positive or negative surprises into the process, consider ways to incorporate these into the effectual process. An obvious interpretation of this principle is, when life throws lemons at you, make lemonade. A more nuanced view argues for a radical revision of attitudes toward failures and successes. For example, separating the performances of entrepreneurs from the performances of their ventures.
Pilot in the plane: Futures are cocreated through human action, and environments are endogenous to the effectual process. This principle emphasizes the role of human beings (effectual) and dampens the idea of trends or inevitable trajectories (causal). It rejects the idea that history runs on autopilot.
On the face of it, it seems easier to see how market interactions (such as interpersonal negotiations) can be more efficacious in the case of organizations such as small businesses than in the case of larger societal institutions such as traffic lights. It seems absurd to think about negotiating with traffic lights. Yet there is more of a role for market interactions in the case of traffic lights, just as, on the flip side, there can be enforcement within organizations, even completely voluntary organizations. For example, communities do negotiate and vote on a variety of institutions around traffic lights, including speed limits on roads, placement of lights, and widths and numbers of lanes. It is unfamiliar, however, to consider any of these as market activities. In such cases, the missing link is provided by institutional entrepreneurs, people acting effectually to build these institutions. As we develop the ensuing analysis of markets and states from an effectual perspective, we will use a more general view of entrepreneurship than a narrow focus on the building of for-profit firms. This generalization is common to the works of noted economists such as Williamson, Ostrom, and North, as well as most entrepreneurship scholars today.
The third dimension of the effectual problem space, isotropy, differs from Knightian uncertainty and goal ambiguity. Isotropy refers to the problem of relevant vs. irrelevant information. In contexts of reasonable predictability, it is relatively easy to evaluate the relevance of any given piece of information. But contexts of innovation are contexts of unpredictability. And in these, even when goals are clear, the isotropy problem is rampant. In fact, the more innovation called for, the more this problem might become salient to all kinds of endeavors, including the enterprise of policymaking. Decisions and actions for the fabrication of organizations involve isotropy. Even more so the making of markets and the shaping of states. And most importantly, isotropy pervades choices between markets and hierarchies. In order to clarify the concept of isotropy a bit more extensively, let us consider a standard problem that budding entrepreneurs face.
Suppose you have come up with the idea for a green widget. Most standard textbooks and courses in entrepreneurship would suggest you go talk to potential customers and ask for their input in making marketing and production decisions. This advice is based on conventional wisdom that makes a series of assumptions, each of which is usually not only unjustified, but has the potential to misguide entrepreneurial action:
The only way to overcome isotropy is to ask for actual commitments, not merely information, advice, or feedback. In other words, market mechanisms such as deal terms, real investments of financial and nonfinancial resources, preselling, etc., are examples of ways to overcome isotropy. When someone says they will or will not buy something at a price, that is predictive information of little or no value to effectual entrepreneurs. But if someone underwrites the next step in the venture, by actually producing a prototype for you, or by introducing you to someone who can do a trial run without charging you up front, or signs a preorder that allows you to set up favorable terms with vendors, etc., then the next step is not a speculative bet. Instead it is an actionable task you can accomplish for affordable loss.
By stitching together a series of such actual commitments (See Fig. 1 for a graphic illustration of this process), effectuators end up cocreating a market that neither entrepreneurs nor anyone else might have predicted. Hence markets themselves become an artifact of the effectual process. In this sense, as Schumpeter argued, entrepreneurship is more about cocreating new markets than innovative products and ventures within extant markets.
It is worth explicitly acknowledging that I am assuming a world in which individuals are relatively free to act effectually, as in modern democracies in which there exist reasonable avenues for entry and exit into labor markets, different types of private and public organizations, and even some movement in and out of states. At least a minimal level of property rights and contract enforcement are also the norm in this analysis. Of course, this is not readily true for a large portion of humanity. But for the purposes of this analysis, I assume a minimal level of existing norms and institutions of individual freedom.
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