Mtk Results
Nancy Benigar
The Corporate Scorecard reports the annual snapshot of results achieved by the World Bank Group, including results and performance indicators of the World Bank, International Finance Corporation (IFC), and Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA).
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This exercise supports the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) and Prudential Regulation Committee (PRC) in the pursuit of their statutory objectives (set out more fully in Annex 1). The financial risks from the physical effects of climate change and the transition to a net-zero economy have the potential to affect the vulnerability of banks and insurers to shocks, and the stability of the wider financial system.
The CBES scenarios are not forecasts of the most likely future outcomes. Instead, they are plausible representations of what might happen based on different future paths of climate policies, technological developments and consumer behaviour, aimed at limiting the rise in global temperatures. Each scenario is assumed to take place over a period of 30 years.
Climate risks captured in the CBES are likely to create a drag on the profitability of banks and insurers, particularly if they are unable to manage these risks effectively. But there is substantial uncertainty around the true magnitude of these risks. And climate risks outside the scope of the CBES (such as trading losses for banks and mortality risk for life insurers) could be material.
All participating banks and insurers have published climate strategies or net-zero transition plans, which they broadly followed in their responses to all three of the CBES scenarios. Individual plans involve reducing finance, and in some cases insurance, to the most carbon-intensive industries, as well as engaging with corporate clients and counterparties to help facilitate their transition to net zero. There is a risk, however, that the collective impact of such plans could have negative consequences for the wider economy. For example, there could be economic consequences if limits on lending and insurance to corporates involved in the supply of more carbon-intensive energy run ahead of the expansion of renewable energy supply and other measures to improve energy efficiency.
Loss projections for the CBES scenarios are based on the balance sheets of participants as they stood at the end of 2020. So they represent an expectation of losses that might materialise if banks and insurers do not act to reduce the climate risks they face. This design feature makes interpretation of the results more straightforward and allows a clear, separate focus on specific actions that participants might take in response to the scenarios. But it is also likely to push projected losses upwards, as over the thirty year horizon of the CBES participants would likely be able to adjust their business models, and may reduce or mitigate some of the risks they face.
There are two key types of risk associated with climate change: the risks that arise as the economy moves from a carbon-intensive one to net-zero emissions, known as transition risks; and risks associated with the higher global temperatures likely to result from taking no further policy action, known as physical risks. The CBES includes three scenarios exploring both transition and physical risks, to different degrees. These scenarios build on the climate scenarios developed by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). The CBES also includes an exercise to explore climate litigation risk facing general insurers, separate from these three scenarios.
The exercise considered two possible routes to net-zero carbon dioxide emissions globally by 2050: an Early Action scenario and a Late Action scenario (Figure 2.2). These scenarios primarily explore transition risks from climate change:
In both these scenarios, climate risks have been managed by 2050. In reality, however, the effectiveness of climate policy is not certain. Based on climate simulations and modelling of the impact of policy, the early action policy path has the highest probability of success in terms of limiting climate change.footnote [3] From a practical perspective, acting late would leave less time to fine-tune policy as its effectiveness was revealed, and leave governments more exposed to the risk of policy co-ordination failure.
A third scenario explores the physical risks that would begin to materialise if governments around the world fail to enact policy responses to global warming and no additional action is taken to address climate change. In contrast to the two transition scenarios, risks in the NAA scenario continue to build beyond the end of the scenario, making it more difficult to compare the effects of such a scenario. Furthermore the scenario does not factor in other potential geopolitical impacts of severe climate change such as increases in migration and conflict, which alongside their enormous human costs, are likely also to result in further financial losses.
No Additional Action (NAA): This scenario primarily explores physical risks from climate change. It is a deliberately severe scenario, being based on climate outcomes that would only occur later this century under the assumption that no additional action is taken to address climate change, and represents a worse than expected outcome even under such conditions. The absence of transition policies in this scenario leads to a growing concentration of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere and, as a result, global temperature levels continue to increase, reaching 3.3C higher relative to pre-industrial levels by the end of the scenario. This leads to chronic changes in precipitation, ecosystems and sea-levels, which are unevenly distributed globally, and in some cases irreversible. There is also a rise in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. There are permanent impacts on living and working conditions, buildings and infrastructure. As a result, UK and global GDP growth is permanently lower and macroeconomic uncertainty increases. Reflecting the fact that the future looks materially worse at the end of the scenario, with the adverse effects of climate change set to worsen further, UK and US equity prices are respectively just under 20 and 25% lower than they might otherwise be.footnote [4]
In order to produce better estimates of climate risks in their portfolios, banks and insurers will need to prioritise investment in their climate risk assessment capabilities, both by focusing on their internal modelling and data capabilities and doing more to scrutinise data and projections supplied by third-party providers (upon which participants have relied heavily to compile CBES submissions). The inability to capture appropriate and robust data in certain areas is a common limitation, which means many climate risks are only being partially measured. Examples of gaps include information about the location of corporate assets to permit physical risk assessment, and a lack of standardised information about value chain emissions relating to corporate counterparties.footnote [5] Banks and insurers will need to prioritise progress on data and will need to put in place interim measures to inform risk management until these data challenges are resolved. The Bank will continue to be supportive of co-ordinated initiatives to fill such data gaps (See Section 6).
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