How often should I be getting pinged?

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Nicolas Felix Hogan

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Dec 3, 2013, 10:21:51 AM12/3/13
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I often get pinged more than once an hour ( just now 3 pings within 10 minutes) and the pings can sometimes be very close together (my record being 36 seconds).

I still have my Ping frequency set to 45. should this be happening?

Daniel Reeves

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Dec 4, 2013, 5:11:51 PM12/4/13
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Yup! The size of the gaps follows an exponential distribution:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_distribution
See also the section "The Math" at http://tagti.me

Interestingly, if you leave your ping frequency at 45 minutes then
your pings will follow a universal schedule. So those 3 pings within
10 minutes that you got -- we all got those too!

The longest gap I've seen lately was between 4am and 7am this morning,
pacific time (it's 2pm here now, so 7 hours ago a ping happened that
was the first one in 3 hours).

If you need a ping you can be exactly 99% sure that you'll get one
within 3.5 hours from now, whenever "now" happens to be (including
having already waited 3.5 hours!).
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Goal tracking + Commitment contracts == http://beeminder.com

Adam Mesha

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Dec 5, 2013, 1:50:47 AM12/5/13
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On Thu, Dec 5, 2013 at 12:11 AM, Daniel Reeves <dre...@beeminder.com> wrote:
The longest gap I've seen lately was between 4am and 7am this morning,
pacific time (it's 2pm here now, so 7 hours ago a ping happened that
was the first one in 3 hours).

Ha! On Saturday there was a ping at 13:49:00 and then the next one was 19:48:52 (UTC+2), a gap of 6 hours, which is a 1 in 20,000 chance if I understand the math right. And that gap started just before I started working on a project I had set up to track with Beeminder and was getting close to derailing. As a result, I worked 10+ hours that day on the project, but Beeminder thinks I only worked 4.

Daniel Reeves

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Dec 6, 2013, 11:28:39 PM12/6/13
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Ha, yeah, TagTime-based Beeminding is not for the feint of heart! A
rule of thumb I use is that TagTime won't be very accurate until you
have about 40 hours worth of pings. But I think anything that you're
spending an hour or so a day on works fine for TagTime-based
Beeminding as long as you're willing to play the game. Like try really
hard to get into the blue every day before you go to sleep. If you
don't then you'll have emergency pings the next day, which can make
for a bad day if you're unlucky, as you noticed.

I actually have a little table taped to my laptop giving the amount of
time I need to set aside based on the number of emergency pings I
need, to be 99% sure of getting them all:

1 ping = 3.5 hours
2 pings = 5 hours
3 pings = 6 hours
4 pings = 7.5 hours
5 pings = 9 hours
6 pings = 10 hours
7 pings = 11 hours
8 pings = 12 hours

Daniel Reeves

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Dec 14, 2013, 7:39:57 PM12/14/13
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TagTime-based Beeminding is now for the slightly fainter of heart,
with this nifty tool I made last night:
tminder.meteor.com

You can keep that page open as a beemergency bears down on you and
decide what probability of losing your money suffices to light a fire
under your butt!

Daniel Reeves

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Dec 14, 2013, 11:10:54 PM12/14/13
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Apparently the point of that is not so obvious. It's for people who
have Beeminder goals tracked by TagTime and who sometimes skate the
edge of their yellow brick roads. Like you have 3 more pings you have
to get by midnight and it's 8pm and you want to know what's the
probability you'll actually get them... (answer: 89% and falling)
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