The Donbass Is Breaking Away from an Agonized Ukraine
Tectonic shifts are continuing to occur in the political landscape of
the Ukraine. Last week, following the imposition of a total blockade
against Novorussia by the Ukronazis, Russia declared that she will from
now on recognize the official documents emitted by the DNR and LNR
authorities. This week, the Novorussian authorities have nationalized
all the key factories of the Donbass. Furthermore, the Novorussians have
now declared that since the Ukrainian authorities are not willing to
purchase their coal and anthracite they will from now on export them to
Russia. And just to make sure that they cover all their bases, the
Novorussians have also declared that from now on only the Russian Ruble
will be circulating in the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics.
Not to be undone, the Ukronazis have also taken a highly significant
step: the Ukrainian Prime Minister has declared that he thinks that the
irregular forces currently enforcing the blockade should be considered
official border guards (as for these soon to be “border guards”, they
have explained that for their main border post shall be called
“nightingale” in honor of the Nachtigall battalion of the Nazi Abwehr).
Let’s sum all this up:
The Urkonazis completely close down the unofficial border with
Novorussia
Russia recognizes Novorussian documents
The DNR and LNR nationalize all the Ukrainian industry in the Donbass
The Ukronazis declare that the line of contact is now to be
considered a border
The Novorussians declare that the Russian Ruble is the only legal
currency in Novorussia
The Novorussians will now export their entire production of
coal/anthracite to Russia
All the factories in Novorussia will no longer pay taxes to Kiev
I don’t know about you – but to me this sure looks like the DNR and LNR
are cutting off their last ties to the Ukraine and the the junta in Kiev
appears to go along with this plan.
In reality, this is all much more complicated. There is a covert war
going on between the Ukrainian oligarchs Rinat Akhmetov, Igor
Kolomoiskii and President Poroshensko and there is also a not so covert
war taking place between the Ukronazi opposition and Poroshenko. There
are also many unanswered questions left, including how and if the
Novorussians will sell their production of coal and anthracite either to
Russia (which Russia really doesn’t need) or through Russia (possibly
concealing its real origin). This situation also begs the question of
what the Russian banks will be able and willing to do to help the
Novorussians. The sums of money involved are huge and there are many,
often mutually exclusive, interests competing against each other. But I
won’t dwell on that level right now – what is most important to me is
the big picture and that big picture says “good-bye Ukraine”.
One can judge the seriousness of these developments by the truly
Herculean efforts made by the western corporate media not to notice
them. Even the British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, Boris
Johnson, who was in Kiev yesterday, was focusing exclusively on the
upcoming Eurovision competition, and not on the dramatic developments
taking place in the southeast.
In the Ukrainian context, the expression “never say never” is probably
even more important than usual, but I will say that if what I think is
happening is really happening, that is, if the Donbass is now de-facto
cutting its last ties with the Ukraine and integrating with Russia
politically and economically, and if the junta in Kiev appears to have
been unable to prevent the Nazi volunteers from triggering this crisis
with their blockade, then this potentially means to very important things:
The Ukronazis have given up on the concept of reconquering Novorussia.
The breakup of the rump-Ukraine has begun.
The blockade of the Donbass was decided by a rather small group of
nationalist leaders who never asked for nor received any authorization
for their actions from the junta in Kiev. Furthermore, the junta in Kiev
never officially endorsed or even supported that move. But most
amazingly, the junta never sent any kind of official
police/military/security force to regain control of the situation. There
was a group of men who, armed with sticks and baseball bats, tried to
remove the Ukronazi crazies from the tracks, but they were quickly
beaten back. Keep in mind that there are tens of thousands of soldiers
and policemen deployed in the immediate vicinity of these volunteer
units, but nobody, absolutely nobody has made a move to restore law and
order.
Of course, the very notion of “law and order” is largely meaningless in
a country occupied by a regime which itself is totally illegal.
Furthermore, “law and order” are also meaningless in a country where
might – usually in the form of a gang of thugs with Kalashnikovs – makes
right. Forget “central Europe” – think “Somalia” and you will be much
closer to the truth.
The Ukraine is a failed state, politically and economically. And, as a
failed state, the Ukraine has plenty of armed gangs and even official
armed forces, but nothing like the kind of modern and civilized military
you need to take on the Novorussians who, far from being a failed state,
are a young state which has just completed the modernization of its
armed forces. The difference between the Ukrainian and the Novorussian
armed forces is not just the result of Russian help, although they
clearly played a major role, but the fact of the Novorussians having a
capable fighting force has been a matter for survival from day 1,
whereas for the junta this has never been a priority simply because
there never was a military threat to the junta’s power. Bean-counters
will tell me that the Ukrainian forces are about 2x to 3x larger, which
is quite true. It is also irrelevant. What matters is whether they can
mount modern, combined arms operations and that is something that the
Ukrainian military does not seem to be capable of.
What we are seeing today is not just a Ukrainian military which seems to
have given up on the notion of reconquering Novorussia, it is also one
which appears to be giving up on the notion of holding the country
together. Right now, this is only affecting the Donbass, but pretty soon
other regions are likely to follow suit, especially the south (Odessa,
Nikolaev, Mariupol) which, by itself, could be wealthy and prosperous
and which has no need whatsoever for Neo-Nazi rulers. There are even
some separatist movements in the western Ukraine who want to get rid of
all the pseudo-Ukrainian “ballast” and build a “pure” Ukrainian state in
the only place where such a state has real historical roots: on the
border with Poland.
This all begs the question of the future of Poroshenko and here your
guess is as good as mine. The only thing that has kept him in power so
long is the support from the US and EU, but with the crises (plural)
surrounding the Trump administration and the political uncertainty in
Europe, there is only so long that Poroshenko can use his western
mentors as the base for his power. Sooner or later, somebody somewhere
in the Ukraine (my guess is in Odessa) will figure out that the local
power configuration is far more important to him/her than what the
western politicians have to say. Again, Somalia is the example to keep
in mind: for a while the western powers also had a great deal of
influence there, but only until that power was successfully challenged
and then everybody declared victory and fled.
Needless to say, the Minsk Agreements are as far from being implemented
as ever. For the AngloZionists that is enough of a justification to
continue to blame Russia for it all. That will continue until the
Ukraine finally implodes at which point the real negotiation will be
“who will pays for the mess?” and Russia will probably declare that she
is primarily responsible for the Donbass leaving the rest of the mess
for the Europeans who, unlike the Americans, will have no choice but to
pay. But that is still far in the future. Right now the question is how
long can the agony of the Nazi Ukrainian regime last?
Alexander Zakharchenko predicted yesterday that the Ukrainian state
would collapse within 60 days. Maybe. My personal gut feeling is that
this might take quite a bit longer, especially considering the inertia
of such a large country. We should also never discount a possible
large-scale Ukronazi attack on Novorussia for no other reason than an
expression of blind and dumb hatred. Should that happen the goal of the
Novorussians will be to free the parts of the Lugansk and Donetsk
regions which are still under Nazi occupation. This might be difficult –
the Ukrainians have been fortifying their defenses for many months now –
but I expect them to eventually succeed. At which point the West will
blame Russia again (what else is new?).
Irrespective of how long this agony will last, there is no doubt in my
mind that it has begun and that it is irreversible. It is actually quite
remarkable that it took so long to bring about this last phase. For many
months already we had many minor indicators and signs that thing were
not going well, but with the de-facto separation of the Donbass and its
gradual integration into the Russian economy we are witnessing a
qualitatively new phase in the disintegration process of the Ukraine.
http://www.unz.com/tsaker/the-donbass-is-breaking-away-from-an-agonizing-ukraine/
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