SEDIMENT CALIBRATION, SENSITIVITY, UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS, MISMATCHES IN SWATCUP

[Manox Sandy]

AM NEWEST ON THIS GROUP AND TO MODELLING.  PLEASE PARDON ME IF I AM ASKING WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN ASKED.  

Kindly give me comment/idea on the following Swat cup calibration of sediment:  are these acceptable?

p-0.38      (initial value 0.38 )

r: 0.18      (Initial value 0.00)

R2: 50      (Initial value 0.46 ) 

NS 41.      (Initial value 0.06)

others see attachment (labelled Summary) 

Brief background. 

Goal: r2

SUBBASIN; UNGAGAUGED, BUT MAIN BASIN HAS A GAUGE ABOUT 26km from the reservoir.

RUSTRATING OBSERVATION ON SIMULATION: SOME SIMULATED VALUES COMPARED TO MEASURED MISSED DATES IN SELECTED INSTANCES, E.G. IF OBSERVED SEDIMENT LOAD OF 1.3 tone per day is recorded on 12th January corresponding simulated will occur either 10 or 11th or 13 or 14th. THE VALUE WOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSER TO OBSERVED, BUT ON A DIFFERENT DAY. I ENDED UP HAVING STANDARD DEVIATIONS, MEANS FOR OBSERVED CLOSER TO EACH OTHER BUT, POOR P, R, R2 AND NS VALUE.

PLEASE ASSIST. HOW CAN I TAKE THE OFs higher? 

kindest regards and thanking in anticipation

M.