Climate Change Impact on the Hydrological Cycle

[Qais Daraghma]

Dear All

Now I'm done calibrating and I want to make a climate prediction through SWAT.

I got changes to each of the 5 climate elements (precipitation/minimum and maximum temperatures/humidity/solar radiation as well as wind speed) in 2060 and 2100.

I want a comprehensive explanation of how this works from the beginning to the end in SWAT and how I will introduce the impact of SWAT CUP parameters on  SWAT results

***I have historical data for 30 years and I want to make a prediction for 2060 as well as 2100.

In the end, I want to thank everyone who contributes to the dissemination of knowledge in this valuable collection

[PIERRE MALANG SADIO]

Ah formidable pareil pour moi. Svp pourrais avoir le lien de téléchargement des données des changements à l'horizon 2060?

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "SWAT-CUP" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to swat-cup+u...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/swat-cup/2f939df0-e0ff-44ae-ab29-d0f3e4555fe7n%40googlegroups.com.

[Qais Daraghma]

Unfortunately, I didn't hold him from the link... But I bought the data for my study area.

[Oscar M Cabezas-Nivin]

Hi Qais,

To do Climate Change projections using SWAT:

1ST, you must select the appropriate future range of year based on your historical data: If you have 30 years of history and must compare it to 30years in the future. Because it doesn't make sense to compare 30 years of historical data with 5 years of the future (you see my point)

2nd You must use different projections (GCMs' outputs) for every scenario (RCPs or SSPs for the CMIP5 and CMIP6 respectively) that you are working on, because nobody can predict the future, so when we are talking about projections a range of variation is more useful than give a single value.

3rd Do not forget that the results that SWAT will give you are approximations, sometimes we overlook the fact that SWAT has a lot of simplifications in how it models our study area.

Kind regards,

Oscar M Cabezas-Nivin

[Qais Daraghma]

Thank you very much
Yes, absolutely.
I understand everything you've been talking about.
The next step is how I will enter the impact of the original modal calibration parameters on future SWAT results ?!!

[Oscar M Cabezas-Nivin]

I do not understand what you are trying to say. 

If you are referring to how to obtain the climate change projections, you have to use your climate change records for your weather variable as inputs to your calibrated model and then run it for your selected future period.

Then, repeat the same process with your other climate change projections of your different GCMs and scenarios.

Regards,

Oscar